Icelandic municipal elections, 2018

[Deleted]

A rainy election day and turnout at the City Hall seemed significantly lower than for the Althing election, but always hard to evaluate. Was briefly at the LG "election coffee" to grab a bite, but the weather is too bad for "doing the rounds" even if I considered visiting PP to see who on earth is left in that party. Lots a families with kids and 60+ women at LG in Þingholtsstræti. Katrín J. was there so the turnout might have been higher than it would normally have been midday, though I guess there is also more and better food left if you turn up early. 

To those that have followed the Árneshreppur coup attempt: The municipal council held yet another meeting with yet another vote split 3-2, and the net result is that 16 of the 18 latecomers got rejected, and only the two students that registered at their parents' address were accepted and will be allowed to vote. Whether that means the power plant proponents win remains to be seen. 

[Georg Ebner]

Reykjavik:

30.36 (+4.68) = 8 (+4) IP
25.57 (- 6.32) = 7 (+2) SDA
08.38 ( *8.38) = 2 ( *2) Reform
07.78 (+1.85) = 2 (+1) Pirates
06.79 ( *6.79) = 1 ( *1) Soc.P.Icel.
06.18 ( *6.18) = 1 ( *1) Centre
04.48 ( -3.86) = 1 ( 0) LeftGreen
04.35 ( *4.35) = 1 ( *1) People'sParty
03.18 ( -7.56) = 0 ( -2) PP

So, surprising success for IP.
The left bloc (SDA&Pirates&LG) has 11 seats, IP&Reform&Centre 11 ("Centre" will likely be ignored), so it might depend on the People'sParty.

[Georg Ebner]

Kopavogur:

63.42%

36.12 ( -3.22) = 5 ( 0) IP
16.25 (+0.17) = 2 ( 0) SDA
13.53 (*13.53) = 2 (*2) BF&Reform
08.17 ( -3.58) = 1 ( 0) PP
06.82 (+2.77) = 1 (+1) Pirates
05.89 ( *5.89) = 0 ( 0) Centre
05.74 ( -3.82) = 0 ( -1) LG
04.27 ( *4.27) = 0 ( 0) LocalList
03.20 ( *3.20) = 0 ( 0) SPI

HafnarFjördur:

58.01%

33.71 ( -2.09) = 5 ( 0) IP
20.15 ( -0.09) = 2 ( -1) SDA
09.49 ( *9.49) = 1 ( *1) Reform
08.00 (+1.47) = 1 (+1) PP (?)
07.83 ( *7.83) = 1 ( *1) CitizensList
07.59 ( *7.59) = 1 ( *1) Centre
06.71 ( -4.99) = 0 ( -1) LG
06.52 ( -0.18) = 0 ( 0) Pirates

[Deleted]

Eight parties got into the Reykjavík City Council and 6% of the votes were wasted on lists that didn't make it, all contributing to a messy result. IP became the biggest party with 30.8% of the vote, which means that the last poll from usually discredited Frettablaðið was better than Gallup's, but there was clearly some last minute movements and the huge amount of new lists contributed to making polling difficult. Turnout was 67%.

The IP group is made up of seven newbies + Marta Guðjóns­dótt­ir, who has only been a councillor since March 2017 when her predecessor replaced IP's deceased deputy chairman Ólöf Nor­dal in the Althing. LG suffered a much bigger defeat than predicted, lost more than 40% of their vote and were humiliated by finishing behind the Socialists, which got 6.4% and one seat.

The new City Council has a massive gender imbalance with 15 women and 8 men. IP has a 4/4 distribution and Reform 1/1, while SDA elected 4 women and three men, and all the smaller parties are represented solely by women. Two immigrants were elected: Polish born mathematician and former MP Pawel Bartoszek (Reform) got one of their two seats and German born Sa­bine Leskopf was elected for SDA as their only newcomer,

IP 30.8 (+5.1) 8
SDA 25.9 (-6.0) 7
Reform 8.2 (new) 2
Pirates 7.7 (+1.8) 2
Socialist Party 6.4 (new) 1
Centre 6.1 (new) 1
LG 4.6 (-3.75) 1
People's Party 4.3 (new) 1

PP 3.2 (-7.6)
Women's Movement 0.9  (new)
Capital List 0.6  (new)
Our City - Reykjavík 0.4  (new)
Men's List 0.3 (new)
People's Front of Iceland 0.3 (-0.15)
Freedom Party 0.2  (new)
Icelandic National Front 0.2 (new)

SDA + Pirates + LG + Socialists = 11
IP + Centre = 9
Reform = 2
People's = 1

I assume the People's Party will end up backing IP despite their "leftist" welfare agenda, but that isn't enough for a majority and Reform are the kingmakers. SDA/Pirates/Reform/LG have 12 seats and that is probably the most likely coalition. No one really wants to rely on the People's Party (or the Socialists..) and Reform intensely dislike Centre and even more the notoriously cantankerous ex-MP Vig­dís Hauks­dótt­ir who got their seat.

[Deleted]

On the Vestmanna Islands Official IP kept the rebels behind them, but For Heimaey leader Íris Róbertsdóttir should still be able to take over as municipal manager with support from the joint leftist/PP Island List. The two IP lists secured nearly 80% between them. 

IP 45.4% 3 (-2)
For Heimaey 34.2% 3 (new)
Island List 20.3% 1 (-1)

[Deleted]

Unlike the Vestmanna Islands the internal IP rebellion in Seltjarnarnes failed as the rebels in For Seltjarnarnes finished outside the council, and IP can continue despite dropping below 50%.

IP 46.3% 4
SDA 27.9% 2
Reform/Nes List 15.3% 1
For Seltjarnarnes10.6% 0

[Deleted]

Mar 19, 2018 19:15:49 GMT @vintris said:

In Skagafjörður the PP majority has made a "secret" deal with a previously unknown company called Syndarveruleiki ehf. about running a virtual reality based viking and saga era museum in the minicipalities main town Sauðárkrókur.

The company will get free housing for fifteen years, a 50% rent subsidy for another 15, the wages of two full-time employees paid for ten years plus free renovation of the building and surrounding area incl.  a new parking lot. In return the municipality gets 10% of the shares in the new museum and a hope of more tourist jobs.  

The municipal manager Stefán Vagn Vagnsson has so far refused to say who are behind the company, or reveal any details about the deal, but investigative website/magazine Stundin got hold of the contract and has publicized it.

The property that will house the new museum is acquired through a property swop with the Kaupfélag Skagfirðinga co-op (owners of most of the town and largest local employer by far, which also controls the local PP branch). The intention was that the local history museum Byggðasafn Skagfirðinga should move in, but its now "homeless" and its artefacts moved to a depot, while the director has quit in protest (can't really blame her). 

Nothing dodgy about any of this, of course. 

LG have criticized the secrecy and want an analysis of the consequences of binding the municipality for that long and the total costs. But as this is Skagafjörður they are unlikely to get it. (..)

PP lost two seats and are now in the minority while both LG and the Settlement List had good elections. There is an PP/IP majority, but IP could team up with the leftists & locals to clean up the mess ("drain the swamp" ), and the message from the electorate was pretty clear that most of them are tired of KS treating the municipality as their private fiefdom. 

PP 33.9% 3 (-2)
LG 24.3% 2 (+1)
Settlement List 20.9% 2 (+1)
IP 20.9% 2 (nc)

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2018 11:59:18 GMT @vintris said:

Five leftist and liberal parties have joined forces with several independents against IP in Garðabær. LG, SDA, Pirates, BF and Reform have allied with some popular athletes and other Indies as the Garðabær List hoping to break the two decade long absolute IP majority in the wealthy suburb. 

No. 3 on the Garðabær List is the Stjarnan forward Harpa Þorsteinsdóttir, who is also on the national team and participated in the women's Euro 2017. No. 6 is the Valur midfielder Guðjón Pétur Lýðsson and no. 16 is the handballplayer Dagur Snær Stefánsson from Stjarnan.

Apart from IP and the Garðabær List the Centre Party is running with current People's List councillor María Grétarsdóttir as their lead candidate. The People's List refused to join the Garðabær List, and its unclear if they are running again, though likely not. 

They of course failed (and so did Centre) and IP even gained a seat.

IP 62.0 8
Garðabær List 28.1 3
Centre 6.8 0
PP 3.1 0

[Deleted]

The left lost Ísafjörður with PP gaining a seat. 

Í-List 43.0 4 (-1)
IP 34.6 3 (nc)
PP 22.4 2 (+1)

[Deleted]

IP lost their majority in Árborg and will likely have to moderate their development plan for Selfoss to hold on in an alliance with Centre. But the opposition is too split to form an alternative coalition. The coalition between Pirates, Reform and various Indies got a seat (the old BF seat). 

IP 38.3 4 (-1) 
SDA 20.1 2 (nc)
PP 15.5 1 (nc)
Centre 10.7 1 (new)
Forward Árborg 8.5 1 (new)
LG 7.0 0 (nc)

[Deleted]

This might have been discussed before, but did any incumbent BF councillors (is that the right word?) in Reykjavik stand for other parties?

[Deleted]

In Akureyri the current coalition between the Town List (of post crash-era Citizens Movement origin, but now nearly taken over by Reform and BF), SDA and PP retained their majority, contrary to expectations, and will likely continue. But PP now have an alternative majority with IP and Centre and may go after getting the mayor ("town manager") for themselves rather than back the Town List again. The Town List keep their two seats despite the Pirates running independently this time, but BF de facto merged into it and they had a seat, so it could be counted as minus one. 

An IP, PP, Centre coalition is fairly unlikely in Akureyri where the two branches of the old Progress Party aren't exactly on friendly terms, but the possibility of it should give PP enough leverage to claim the mayor, although the Town List and SDA could choose to call their bluff. 

IP 22.9 3 (nc)
PP 17.5 2 (nc)
Town List 20.9 2 (nc)
SDA 16.8 2 (nc)
LG 9.4 1 (nc)
Centre 8.1 1 (new)
Pirates 4.3 0 (new)

[Deleted]

May 27, 2018 11:20:24 GMT @nw12398 said:

This might have been discussed before, but did any incumbent BF councillors (is that the right word?) in Reykjavik stand for other parties?

No, they only had two left. HAM and Funkstraße bass player Björn Blöndal retired from politics as the last of the old Best Party punk rockers, and Elsa Hrafnhildur Yeoman didn't ran either. 

Their former MP Nicole Leigh Mosty ran for the Women's Movement, but near the bottom of their list and it was an act of "symbolic support".  They claim the party still exists and say they hope it can be reinvigorated, but this is clearly the end.  

[Deleted]

The gender ratio is pretty close to being equal this time.

In all 72 municipalities with a total of 502 seats there are 266 male councillors (53%) and 236 female (47%). Tiny Borgarfjörðurhreppur in the NE is the only municipality with no women in its council. 

Looking at the seven municipalities in the capital region and the largest eleven elsewhere with a total of 180 councillors there are 91 men and 89 women.

In the seven municipalities in the capital area with a total of 77 councillors there are 40 women and 37 men. Women are in the majority of Reykjavík, Kópavogur, Garðabær and Kjósarhreppur and men in Hafnarfjordur, Mosfellsbær and Seltjarnarnes. In Kópavogur, Hafnarfjordur, Garðabær, Seltjarnarnes and Kjósarhreppur the distribution is as equal as possible, whereas Reykjavík has 65% women in the city council and Mosfellsbær has 77% men.

[Deleted]

May 27, 2018 11:07:13 GMT @vintris said:

IP lost their majority in Árborg and will likely have to moderate their development plan for Selfoss to hold on in an alliance with Centre. But the opposition is too split to form an alternative coalition. The coalition between Pirates, Reform and various Indies got a seat (the old BF seat). 

IP 38.3 4 (-1) 
SDA 20.1 2 (nc)
PP 15.5 1 (nc)
Centre 10.7 1 (new)
Forward Árborg 8.5 1 (new)
LG 7.0 0 (nc)

The leaders of all four opposition parties have decided to start talks on the formation of a new majority in Árborg and will not discuss with IP before the talks are finished. So it looks like I was wrong and their joint opposition to the development plans mean they will try to build an anti-IP coalition anyway. 

[Deleted]

The defectors in the Freedom Party gained 17 more votes than the Icelandic National Front (142 to 125), which I guess makes party leader Gunnlaugur Ingvarsson King of the Far Right. 

Though this could well be a factor:

May 25, 2018 12:02:19 GMT @vintris said:

In other news the Pirates lost their complaint against the Freedom Party using their old party letter Þ. They had alleged its still associated with them and also too close to their current one P so it could be mistaken if people have bad handwriting but the complaint was turned down on a technicality, so I expect the Freedom Party to do a bit better than expected. 

[Deleted]

In the largest Reykjavík suburb Kópavogur - where IP has ruled in coalition with BF, which has the deputy mayor - the combined BF & Reform list lost 1.7% compared to BF's result last time, but kept both seats, while IP lost 3.2%. The Pirates got in this time and LG lost 3.9% and their seat as part of their general collapse in the capital region with the Socialists getting 3.2%. SDA only gained 0.2% which was a big disappointment as they lost 12% last time and had hoped to bounce back. IP will likely keep the mayor in (continued) coalition with BF/Reform, but with LG replaced by the Pirates it will be easier to assemble an anti-IP coalition and BF/Reform could try to get the mayor themselves.  

IP 36.1 5 (nc)
SDA 16.3 2 (nc)
BF & Reform 13.5 2 (nc)
PP 8.2 1 (nc)
Pirates 6.8 1 (+1)

Centre 5.9 (new)
LG 5.7 (-1)
For Kópavogur 4.3 (new)
Socialist Party 3.2 (new)

[Deleted]

Moving on to the second largest suburb Hafnarfjörður, where SDA lost 20.7% and two seats last time. Like in Kópavogur they had hoped to regain some of the lost terrain, but ended up losing 0.1% and a seat due to an unlucky distribution. IP lost 2%, but kept their seats and have a majority with Centre. Eight seats to the centre-right confirms that previously red Hafnarfjörður is out of reach for the left by now due to soaring house prices and demographic changes. LG lost 5.0% and their seat despite facing no competition from the Socialists after losing nearly 3% last time. PP got their first seat in 16 years despite the competition from Centre. BF lost their two seats, but some of them are in the new Citizen List, which got a single councillor elected.

IP 33.7 5 (nc)
SDA 20.1 2 (-1)
Reform 9.5 1 (new)
PP 8.0 1 (+1)
Citizen List 7.8 1 (new)
Centre 7.6 1 (new)

LG 6.7 0 (-1)
Pirates 6.5 0 (+1)

For comparison SDA got 40.9% and 5 seats and LG 14.6% and 1 seat in 2010 (admittedly a good year for the left, but still a remarkable decline). 

[Deleted]

Finishing off with the last of the Reykjavík suburbs Mosfellsbær, where IP lose 9.6% and their majority, but can continue to govern with either Centre or Reform. The Residents’ Movement lost 1.2% and their seat despite (or because of..) allying with the Pirates and a new local list took their place. LG managed to hang on to their seat here despite losing 2.3%, while SDA lost 7.7% and one of their two seats. Though I think Friends of Mosfellsbær is partly made up of SDA defectors, so more like a split.

IP 39.2 4 (-1)
Reform 11.2 1 (new)
Friends of Mosfellsbær 10.6 1 (new)
LG 9.6 1 (nc)
SDA 9.5 1 (-1)
Centre 9.0 1 (new)

Residents Movement & Pirates 7.9 0 (-1)
PP 2.9 (nc)

[Deleted]

May 19, 2018 13:49:46 GMT @vintris said:

The election in the smallest municipality in the country, Árneshreppur in the Westfiords - which only had 46 residents at the beginning of the year - looks set to be uncharacteristically dramatic with an ongoing legal investigation, as well as allegations of bribery and abuse of authority.

In an attempt to block a hydro power plant at Hvalá 18 people, 17 of voting age, moved to Árneshreppur in the last two weeks before the deadline for voter registration on 5 May, increasing its voting population by 39%.  (...)

The hydro power plans were approved by a 3-2 majority earlier this year and while the municipality may not be able to reverse the decision it can effectively be blocked by not issuing any of the necessary permits. 

In 2014 there were 47 registered voters and only 34 voted. There are four hamlets in Árneshreppur but most of the farms and houses are either deserted or secondary homes only used in summer.  

The election had a record 93.5% turnout with 43 of the 46 registered voters voting. It resulted in a clear win for the pro-development side.

It was a personal vote where the voters could vote in anyone that hadn't explicitly asked not to be considered, but the two sides had coordinated who they wanted to represent them and the vast majority of votes went to those. You write both the names of the people you want as councillors ("main men") and then the names of those you want as alterns. A system that gives no minority protection, so not well suited for handling a situation where the community is split on a particular issue. The opponents would have been better off organizing a list, but they probably felt such a break with custom would alienate some people and that only a majority mattered anyway.

23 voted for municipal manager Eva Sigurbjörnsdóttir, who has been doing the bidding of the power company, and the two other pro-power plant councilors were reelected as well with 24 votes each. 

The two opponents didn't run for reelection and their replacements are both in favour of the project. So from 3-2 to 5-0.