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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 27, 2012 13:43:01 GMT
It has been suggested that McCaskill had been deliberately keeping her attacks on Akin low-profile until the deadline for him withdrawing from the ballot had passed, so we may see attempts to push his negatives up further. But it's a difficult race for her to win, because the days of Democrats winning counties between SL and KC appear to be numbered.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 27, 2012 14:08:23 GMT
But it's a difficult race for her to win, because the days of Democrats winning counties between SL and KC appear to be numbered. Indeed. Two years ago Robin Carnahan (a strong candidate) failed to win a single county other than St Louis or Jackson (Kansas City). |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 27, 2012 17:39:04 GMT
I know that's a Republican pollster, but shouldn't Casey be much further ahead? He beat an incumbent (Santorum) by 18 points in 2006, and Smith is a lower-tier candidate who has made some stupid gaffes. This is a joke poll. Casey will win easily. It seems there's another poll today by Quinnipac showing only a six point lead for Casey in PA. Perhaps there's something we've missed. It's still a lead, I'm still very confident he'll win, but it is beginning to look a little closer than I'd thought. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 27, 2012 17:45:34 GMT
This is a joke poll. Casey will win easily. It seems there's another poll today by Quinnipac showing only a six point lead for Casey in PA. Perhaps there's something we've missed. It's still a lead, I'm still very confident he'll win, but it is beginning to look a little closer than I'd thought. I would guess that this is an outlier from Quinnipiac who are normally quite reliable but if we get any more polls showing similar numbers we might start having to pay attention. It maybe that Casey has not been spending much money or campaigning that hard as he thought he was a shoe in. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 28, 2012 5:36:26 GMT
AZ-SEN (Moore Information--R): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 40, Marc Victor (L) 4
IN-SEN (Howey/DePauw): Joe Donnelly (D) 40, Richard Mourdock (R) 38, Andrew Horning (L) 7
ME-SEN (Rasmussen): Angus King (I) 45, Charlie Summers (R) 33, Cynthia Dill (D) 14
MN-SEN (Mason Dixon): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 57, Kurt Bills (R) 28
NV-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 49, Shelley Berkley (D) 43 (LV); Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 44
VA-SEN (Suffolk University): George Allen (R) 44, Tim Kaine (D) 44
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 28, 2012 14:46:28 GMT
I encountered what appears to be a really weird Congressional seat: It is the Arizona Congressional District 2:  I suspect that there may be worse. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 28, 2012 14:58:05 GMT
Oh its the old Hopi Indian reservation that refuse to be in the same CD as the Navajo or some such
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 28, 2012 17:25:00 GMT
Oh its the old Hopi Indian reservation that refuse to be in the same CD as the Navajo or some such That's correct. Includes several retirement areas near Phoenix and the ever lovely Lake Havasu City which is about the hottest large place in the USA (Daytime average high in July is a sultry 110). Very safe Republican. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 28, 2012 20:30:44 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 28, 2012 20:31:52 GMT
Oh its the old Hopi Indian reservation that refuse to be in the same CD as the Navajo or some such This strange arrangement is actually coming to an end and the redrawn 1st CD contains both the Hopi reservation and the surrounding Navajo land. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 29, 2012 5:27:56 GMT
MI-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40 (LV); Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37 (RV)
MT-SEN (Global Strategy Group for the League of Conservation Voters--D): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 44, Denny Rehberg (R) 42, Dan Cox (L) 7
NM-SEN (GBA Strategies for the Heinrich campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 44
NM-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 43, Heather Wilson (R) 42, Jon Barrie (AIP) 9
ND-SEN (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48, Rick Berg (R) 44
PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44, Tom Smith (R) 36
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 30, 2012 5:40:26 GMT
This poll, may explain why Casey is drifting.
PENNSYLVANIA The way Sen. Bob Casey Jr is doing his job: Approve 33% / Disapprove 31% / Unsure 36% (Muhlenberg/Morning Call, LV, 9/22-26)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 1, 2012 15:39:21 GMT
Earlier polling had showed Casey with relatively high disapprovals, but as with Nelson in Florida a lot of those disapprovals were still intending to vote for them, and it had been hypothesised that this was disapproval from voters wanting a Democrat further to the left.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 1, 2012 23:49:30 GMT
Earlier polling had showed Casey with relatively high disapprovals, but as with Nelson in Florida a lot of those disapprovals were still intending to vote for them, and it had been hypothesised that this was disapproval from voters wanting a Democrat further to the left. Certainly quite possible in Casey's case. He is pretty conservative for a democrat, especially on abortion. |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 2, 2012 6:31:22 GMT
FL-SEN (Gravis--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 43
HI-SEN (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 39
ME-SEN (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 12
MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (D) 45
MA-SEN (Univ. of NH for the Boston Globe): Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38
MO-SEN (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 50, Todd Akin (R) 41
NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Others 2
NM-SEN (We Ask America--R): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 41
OH-SEN (Columbus Dispatch): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 39
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 3, 2012 4:33:08 GMT
FL-SEN (Suffolk University): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 40, Connie Mack IV (R) 34, Others 5
ME-SEN (GS Strategy for the NRSC--R): Angus King (I) 37, Charlie Summers (R) 34, Cynthia Dill (D) 17
MO-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 45
NV-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 45
OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41
RI-SEN (Fleming and Associates): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 56, Barry Hinckley (R) 30
TX-SEN (Texas Lyceum Poll): Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 24
VA-SEN (Roanoke College): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 37
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 3, 2012 8:56:12 GMT
Some very strange polls there, especially Maine and Virginia.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 3, 2012 9:27:59 GMT
Some very strange polls there, especially Maine and Virginia. The Maine one is in line with the general trend; King started with a large lead which has been whittled down. There was another poll yesterday showing he had 50% and was well ahead, but that one looks like the outlier. Virginia has generally looked closer but Allen is overrated as a campaigner and the Obama campaign is concentrating a lot of money on the state. |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Oct 3, 2012 11:33:47 GMT
How are the House races looking btw?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 3, 2012 11:42:01 GMT
How are the House races looking btw? There is next to no polling information available for the House. Incumbency is a major factor and this will work against the Democrats. They should make some gains but are unlikely to come anywhere near challenging for control unless there is a major political upset.. Even if the Dems win all the 'tossup' seats they will still fall short by 20 odd votes. elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house |
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