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Post by iainbhx on Sept 21, 2012 6:43:25 GMT
AZ-SEN (Unidentified Republican Pollster): Richard Carmona (D) 44, Jeff Flake (R) 39
FL-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
FL-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 44, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
MA-SEN (Univ. of Mass-Lowell): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45 (LV); Sen. Scott Brown (R) 50, Elizabeth Warren (D) 44 (RV)
MI-SEN (Glengariff Group for the Detroit News): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 34
MI-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 46, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40
NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 41
NV-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 35
NJ-SEN (Fairleigh Dickinson): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 50, Joe Kyrillos (R) 36 (LV); Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 33 (RV)
OH-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 42
PA-SEN (YouGov): Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 38
VA-SEN (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 43, George Allen (R) 42
WI-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 44
WI-SEN (YouGov): Tommy Thompson (R) 48, Tammy Baldwin (D) 42
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 21, 2012 7:51:33 GMT
Its not looking good is it
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 21, 2012 8:30:36 GMT
Its not looking good is it Looks like two more years of destructive gridlock on the cards. As I have said, if I were in the US, I would be an Maricopa County, AZ resident, I would be voting the Libertarian ticket except for county sheriff where I would vote for just about any reasonable candidate to replace Sheriff Joe. |
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Post by erlend on Sept 21, 2012 9:48:00 GMT
Or it could lead people to deliberately split the ticket and hand it the other way.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 22, 2012 5:53:01 GMT
AZ-SEN (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 37
CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 52, Elizabeth Emken (R) 34
CT-SEN (YouGov): Linda McMahon (R) 45, Chris Murphy (D) 40
FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 48, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
IN-SEN (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 41, Joe Donnelly (D) 38
MD-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 50, Dan Bongino (R) 30
MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting--R): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 48, Elizabeth Warren (D) 47
MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 44, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 43
MN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 49, Kurt Bills (R) 34
MO-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Todd Akin (R) 38
NJ-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 43, Joe Kyrillos (R) 29
NM-SEN (YouGov): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 35
NY-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 52, Wendy Long (R) 25
TN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 49, Mark Clayton (D) 25
TX-SEN (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 31
WA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 37
WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 22, 2012 20:08:11 GMT
Have YouGov done much polling in the USA before? Their record here is okay but I wonder if there could be echoes of Angus Reid in the 2010 General Election here - a firm with a good record in Canada who made complete arses of themselves on the other side of the Atlantic! I think I read somewhere, might have been 538, that they were the fourth best pollster in 2008. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 25, 2012 5:57:27 GMT
CA-SEN (Field Poll): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 57, Elizabeth Emken (R) 31
MT-SEN (Mason Dixon): Denny Rehberg (R) 48, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Dan Cox (L) 1
NE-SEN (Omaha World-Herald): Deb Fischer (R) 56, Bob Kerrey (D) 40 (LV); Deb Fischer (R) 52, Bob Kerrey (D) 42 (RV)
OH-SEN (Ohio Newspaper Group): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 45
PA-SEN (Mercyhurst University): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 43, Tom Smith (R) 29
PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 42
WI-SEN (We Ask America--R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 52, Tommy Thompson (R) 40
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 6:38:54 GMT
WI-SEN (We Ask America--R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 52, Tommy Thompson (R) 40 Can't be right, can it ..  |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 25, 2012 9:11:29 GMT
WI-SEN (We Ask America--R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 52, Tommy Thompson (R) 40 Can't be right, can it .. We Ask America are a joke pollster who produce load of strange polls. All the serious polling companies show this to be a very tight race. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 25, 2012 9:19:19 GMT
Can't be right, can it .. We Ask America are a joke pollster who produce load of strange polls. All the serious polling companies show this to be a very tight race. But there's still a dichotomy of very tight national polls versus less tight state polls. If Romney keeps his foot on the gaffe pedal the way he's managed it so far, then I don't think this will be so tight on the day. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 25, 2012 9:28:33 GMT
We Ask America are a joke pollster who produce load of strange polls. All the serious polling companies show this to be a very tight race. But there's still a dichotomy of very tight national polls versus less tight state polls. If Romney keeps his foot on the gaffe pedal the way he's managed it so far, then I don't think this will be so tight on the day. At the moment Romney is in danger of absolutely imploding and not only going down to a heavy defeat himself but costing the GOP any chance of the Senate and possibly putting the house in play. This would actually be a travesty for American politics as the the GOP would blame Romney for being too moderate (just as McCain was) and retreat to an ever more intransigent position. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 25, 2012 9:31:33 GMT
But there's still a dichotomy of very tight national polls versus less tight state polls. If Romney keeps his foot on the gaffe pedal the way he's managed it so far, then I don't think this will be so tight on the day. At the moment Romney is in danger of absolutely imploding and not only going down to a heavy defeat himself but costing the GOP any chance of the Senate and possibly putting the house in play. This would actually be a travesty for American politics as the the GOP would blame Romney for being too moderate (just as McCain was) and retreat to an ever more intransigent position. Bachmann-Cain '16 - the Driving Miss Crazy ticket ;D Romney has got to do a good debate. I don't think he has it in him. I think the chance of the Senate has gone, Senate polls look better for the Dems every week. I can't see them getting the House back, however. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 25, 2012 9:54:16 GMT
At the moment Romney is in danger of absolutely imploding and not only going down to a heavy defeat himself but costing the GOP any chance of the Senate and possibly putting the house in play. This would actually be a travesty for American politics as the the GOP would blame Romney for being too moderate (just as McCain was) and retreat to an ever more intransigent position. Bachmann-Cain '16 - the Driving Miss Crazy ticket ;D Romney has got to do a good debate. I don't think he has it in him. I think the chance of the Senate has gone, Senate polls look better for the Dems every week. I can't see them getting the House back, however. Yes I still think Romney can turn things round for the simple reason that he has been working for this too long to plod to defeat without trying something a bit different. What he needs to do, especially in the debates is to sell himself. Sure he doesn't have the most compelling biography but he has strengths to play on. Successful businessman, competent Governor, effective administrator, steady hand in difficult times. Leave attacking Obama and firing up the base to the Super-PACs while he sells himself as someone who would make a good President. As for the Senate, clearly recent polls favour the dems retaining it but there are still enough states that could go GOP to make it possible for them to win it. They could very easily win Nebraska, Montana and North Dakota while to a varying degree Wisconsin, Virginia and Connecticut all look to be close enough for them to take. Also Missouri could yet be in play (although unlikely) if the money men change their mind and help Akin. Obviously they desperately need to hold the two tight races in Arizona, Nevada and Indiana as they will lose Maine to Angus King (I) and probably Massachusets. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 25, 2012 11:55:00 GMT
Can't be right, can it .. We Ask America are a joke pollster who produce load of strange polls. All the serious polling companies show this to be a very tight race. They're certainly a joke, but normally they lean well to the right. I don't believe the margin here, but all the polls here have shown a pretty rapid shift to Baldwin as Thompson has almost completely stopped campaigning and advertising since the primary. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 26, 2012 5:58:03 GMT
FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 46, Connie Mack IV (R) 37
FL-SEN (Washington Post): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 54, Connie Mack IV (R) 40 (LV); Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 55, Connie Mack IV (R) 37 (RV)
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 48, Elizabeth Warren (D) 48
MI-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37
NV-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, Shelley Berkley (D) 39, David VanderBeek (IAP) 4
NV-SEN (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Shelley Berkley (D) 48, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44
NJ-SEN (Monmouth University): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 34
OH-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 44, Josh Mandel (R) 43
OH-SEN (Washington Post): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 53, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 39 (RV)
PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research--R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 41
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 26, 2012 11:27:51 GMT
PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research--R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 41 I know that's a Republican pollster, but shouldn't Casey be much further ahead? He beat an incumbent (Santorum) by 18 points in 2006, and Smith is a lower-tier candidate who has made some stupid gaffes. This is a joke poll. Casey will win easily. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 26, 2012 11:34:50 GMT
PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research--R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 41 I know that's a Republican pollster, but shouldn't Casey be much further ahead? He beat an incumbent (Santorum) by 18 points in 2006, and Smith is a lower-tier candidate who has made some stupid gaffes. I post all the one's I find on the Great Orange Satan's poll summary except the House polls, I've found House polls too unreliable. But yes, Casey vs "Some Dude" should be a much bigger margin than that. |
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Post by dizz on Sept 26, 2012 20:52:34 GMT
Although I'm not surprised given the way he positioned himself/got cornered over the last couple of weeks, overall I am surprised that Akin is still in and facing no other Republican.  |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 27, 2012 5:17:11 GMT
AZ-SEN (Anzalone-Liszt for the Carmona campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 43, Marc Victor (L) 3
AZ-SEN (Rasmussen): Jeff Flake (R) 47, Richard Carmona (D) 41
CT-SEN (PPP): Chris Murphy (D) 48, Linda McMahon (R) 42
FL-SEN (Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 53, Connie Mack IV (R) 39
FL-SEN (Unidentified internal poll for the Mack campaign): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 48, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
MD-SEN (Gonzales Research): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 50, Daniel Bongino (R) 22, Rob Sobhani (I) 21
MO-SEN (Chilenski Strategies for Missouri Scout): Todd Akin (R) 48, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47
OH-SEN (Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 40
PA-SEN (Franklin and Marshall): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 38
PA-SEN (Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 43
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 27, 2012 12:53:26 GMT
That's in interesting poll in Missouri. Chilenski strategies seems to be a non-partisan St Louis based polling firm and the same poll had Romney leading Obama by 6 points (which seems reasonable) so Akin might still be in with a shout so long as he can raise enough money.
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