US Elections (non Presidential)

[iainbhx]

CT-SEN (Quinnipiac): Linda McMahon (R) 48, Chris Murphy (D) 47
HI-SEN (Benenson Strategy Group for the Hirono campaign): Mazie Hirono (D) 54, Linda Lingle (R) 37
MO-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for the Akin campaign): Todd Akin (R) 49, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47
WA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 57, Michael Baumgartner (R) 37
WI-SEN (WPA Research for Now-or-Never PAC--R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 45

[irish observer]

I've always found Roll Call to be very informative regarding polls for the Senate and the House contests. Race ratings change depending on recent polling.

atr.rollcall.com/race-ratings-changes-house-maps-gels-senate-still-fluid/

In the Senate I think the Democrats should gain Massachussetts while Republicans gain Nebraska and North Dakota. I don't think Indiana will fall to Dems even with current polling given a Presidential election and as Obama will carry Virginia this should assist Tim Kaine. Jon Tester may survive in Montana on account of his delivery to date.

[iainbhx]

NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 41
NV-SEN (Gravis--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 52, Shelley Berkley (D) 36
OH-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for the Mandel campaign): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 44
VA-SEN (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 45

[cibwr]

One interesting snippit of info www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19842704

Interesting that on line personas and game identities are now an election issue.

[baloo]

Oct 6, 2012 7:10:03 GMT cibwr said:

One interesting snippit of info www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19842704

Interesting that on line personas and game identities are now an election issue.

That Republican is such a total noob.

There's a number of reasons why this was a stupid thing to do. Firstly the "I'm a dirty old man who stalks young women over the internet and then publicises details of their personal lives in order to further my own political ambitions" is a look I've never seen any politician go for before. It's certainly interesting and we'll see how it works out for him.

Another reason it's stupid is that the vast majority of Republicans will also use the internet in ways that are perfectly legal and don't affect anyone else and he's just made them a target. A third reason is that most adults my age seem to do some gaming, it is in fact far more mainstream that being a member of a political party. He's insulting all those millions of American voters who pursue this normal, mainstream and completely legal hobby.

Have just visited the website and it really does look like it was done by a stalker, also has the line "Studies have found the average WoW gamer is 28" which means that they know that the average gamer is actually able to vote and yet chose to insult them anyway.

[iainbhx]

FL-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 51, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
FL-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 44, Connie Mack IV (R) 44
MA-SEN (Harstad Research for the Warren campaign): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44
MA-SEN (Western New England College): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45 (LV); Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44 (RV)
MI-SEN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 55, Pete Hoesktra (R) 35
MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 51, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43
NV-SEN (Precision Opinion): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 43
ND-SEN (Mason Dixon): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 47, Rick Berg (R) 47
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 46, Others 2
OH-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 44
OH-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Josh Mandel (R) 46, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 42
VA-SEN (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44
WA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 53, Michael Baumgartner (R) 40
WI-SEN (PPP): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46

[tricky]

What Heidi Heitkamp is doing really is the political equivalent of defying gravity.

[Richard Allen]

Oct 9, 2012 19:20:36 GMT tricky said:

What Heidi Heitkamp is doing really is the political equivalent of defying gravity.

From what I gather she is running a very clever campaign heavily focussing on issues that as a Senator she would have no real say on but that the people of North Dakota largely do care about.

[iainbhx]

CT-SEN (Rasmussen): Chris Murphy (D) 51, Linda McMahon (R) 46
IN-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Richard Mourdock (R) 45, Joe Donnelly (D) 42, Andrew Horning (L) 4
MA-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 48, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45, Others 1
MA-SEN (YouGov for Univ. of Massachusetts): Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45 (LV); Elizabeth Warren (D) 48, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 43 (RV)
MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 57, Kurt Bills (R) 31
NM-SEN (GBA Strategies for the Heinrich campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 39, Jon Barrie (IAP) 8

[Sibboleth]

This is not good PR: www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/10/scott-desjarlais-abortion-pro-life_n_1953136.html

[iainbhx]

AZ-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Richard Carmona (D) 47, Jeff Flake (R) 43
AZ-SEN (Tarrance Group for the Flake campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 43
ME-SEN (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 24, Cynthia Dill (D) 12
MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8
NV-SEN (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 44, David Venderbeek (IAP) 4
NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45
OH-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 42, Josh Mandel (R) 38, Scott Rupert (I) 4
PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research--R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 44
RI-SEN (Brown University): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 59, Barry Hinckley (R) 30

[Richard Allen]

Oct 11, 2012 5:12:09 GMT iainbhx said:

AZ-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Richard Carmona (D) 47, Jeff Flake (R) 43
AZ-SEN (Tarrance Group for the Flake campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 43

And there you have it folks. A classic example of why partisan polls are pretty much worthless.

[erlend]

They still provide trends but the actual results are silly. So the Rasmussen ones still show the same pattern of ups and downs for Romney/Obama but their result needs interpretation.

[Richard Allen]

Oct 11, 2012 9:37:32 GMT erlend said:

They still provide trends but the actual results are silly. So the Rasmussen ones still show the same pattern of ups and downs for Romney/Obama but their result needs interpretation.

Ras might lean towards the GOP (because of their methodology) but they aren't a partisan polling company so the are excluded from my remarks above.

[erlend]

OK. I probably don't yet know enough to interpret which pollsters are shysters (both Red and Blue) apart from their production of anomalous results.

I do prefer here where there is no history of partisan polling. I specifically exclude You Gov with that comment. They are not partisan but I believe that their methodology exaggerates trends. At the moment I think that means exaggerating the Labour swing, in 2010 it exaggerated Cleggmania and if the Tories recovered a lead under Labour I think it would exaggerate that.

[iainbhx]

Oct 11, 2012 9:26:12 GMT Richard Allen said:

Oct 11, 2012 5:12:09 GMT iainbhx said:

AZ-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Richard Carmona (D) 47, Jeff Flake (R) 43
AZ-SEN (Tarrance Group for the Flake campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 43

And there you have it folks. A classic example of why partisan polls are pretty much worthless.

Between the two, however. they tell us that the Senate Campaign for Arizona is closer than it has been for many, many years.

I'm actually sort of surprised because I'd have thought that Flake as a solid fiscal conservative and with thoughtful positions on immigration and some privacy rights would have gone down well in Arizona. There again, maybe he's just not Batshit Insane enough for teh base.

[markgoodair]

Several recent New Mexico polls for the U.S. Senate race have shown Independent American Party nominee Jon Barrie at 9%. These polls also generally show the Democratic nominee, Martin Heinrich, hovering near 50%, and Republican nominee Heather Wilson, the Republican nominee, at or near 40%.

Barrie is the first minor party or independent candidate for U.S. Senate to appear on the New Mexico ballot since 1996. The Independent American Party of New Mexico is not affiliated with any party outside New Mexico, and has no presidential nominee

[The Bishop]

Oct 11, 2012 10:10:51 GMT erlend said:

OK. I probably don't yet know enough to interpret which pollsters are shysters (both Red and Blue) apart from their production of anomalous results.

I do prefer here where there is no history of partisan polling. I specifically exclude You Gov with that comment. They are not partisan but I believe that their methodology exaggerates trends. At the moment I think that means exaggerating the Labour swing, in 2010 it exaggerated Cleggmania and if the Tories recovered a lead under Labour I think it would exaggerate that.

Except that several other pollsters are backing YouGov up on this - it is ComRes who are out of step recently (and ICM longer term)

Where YouGov *is* arguably "out of step", is fairly persistently giving your party the lowest scores

[erlend]

I was leaving my lot out of it so as to avoid claims of self interest. It actually makes sense to me that a panel of self nominated people are more interested than average and therefore more susceptible to trends.

[Richard Allen]

Oct 11, 2012 11:27:31 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 11, 2012 9:26:12 GMT Richard Allen said:

And there you have it folks. A classic example of why partisan polls are pretty much worthless.

Between the two, however. they tell us that the Senate Campaign for Arizona is closer than it has been for many, many years.

I'm actually sort of surprised because I'd have thought that Flake as a solid fiscal conservative and with thoughtful positions on immigration and some privacy rights would have gone down well in Arizona. There again, maybe he's just not Batshit Insane enough for teh base.

I think it is more down to Carmona being a very strong candidate as opposed to Flake being a weak candidate. That combined with the general trend away from the GOP in Arizona (as with the whole South West) has made this a close race.