|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 13, 2024 17:29:00 GMT
Pretty much as expected, i think some were looking too much into the idea of Scott being Trump’s pick as decisive The Senate is a small club that jealously guards its place in US politics, allowing the President dictate leadership of that body is pretty much inconceivable. Besides, Scott was never going to win, even Trump knew that, hence no public endorsement. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,380 
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 13, 2024 17:37:49 GMT
Thune has had a quick turn around in a couple of years. After getting quite a bit of harassment from Trump world over his response to the 2020 election overrun efforts he seriously considered retiring when up for re-election in 2022 and only decided to run again at the start of that year
But no credible primary challenger emerged despite Trump trying to recruit one (he even tried to convince Kristi Noem), and now Thune is going to be Senate Majority leader
|
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 13, 2024 17:44:02 GMT
You have to feel a bit for Cornyn, he was the obvious successor for many years but the Senate GOP rules did him over. They term limit all leadership positions except Majority/Minority Leader to 6 years. Having done his stint as the No2 from 2013-2019 he was left with no where to go. Thune was already well regarded having already done 10 years in the lower rungs of the leadership, then got to do his stint as No2 at the right time and became more prominent over the last 18 months as McConnell's health declined.
Worse still for Cornyn, he isn't even in line for Committee Chairmanship as consolation.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 18:17:36 GMT
Including these figures, McCormick now leads by around 22,000 votes statewide. I believe Casey is requesting a recount. Bothe the Libertarian Party and the Green Party have more than double the votes of the current victory margin (88,000 and 68,000, respectively, versus a current winning margin of 29,000, according to the figures I’m currently seeing). From X: “Bob Casey probably lost this election, but in 2009, Republicans dragged the Minnesota Senate race out to July through frivolous litigation, preventing Democrats from seating their 60th vote for six months. No reason why Casey shouldn't do the same.” |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 18:34:23 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Nov 13, 2024 18:43:44 GMT
Bothe the Libertarian Party and the Green Party have more than double the votes of the current victory margin (88,000 and 68,000, respectively, versus a current winning margin of 29,000, according to the figures I’m currently seeing). From X: “Bob Casey probably lost this election, but in 2009, Republicans dragged the Minnesota Senate race out to July through frivolous litigation, preventing Democrats from seating their 60th vote for six months. No reason why Casey shouldn't do the same.” Big difference between a 300 vote margin and a 30000 vote margin though. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 18:50:04 GMT
You can see the crossover voting in Henry Cuellar's district in South Texas from space.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Nov 13, 2024 18:50:39 GMT
Yes-much too large for a recount even at US Senate level.
Incidentally, the House of Representatives still has not finished counting and there is still an outside chance the Democrats could gain it, albeit only by 1 seat. It is shocking but not surprising that it still only has 435 members, despite the US population at the last census (2020) being approximately 331.4 million. According to the "cube root law" as has often been discussed on this forum, there should be (taking geographical factors into account and the need for each US state to have at least one congressional district) 695 seats in the House of Representatives now. By my calculations (extra congressional wages, security costs and administrative costs) an increase of 260 seats would only cost each American taxpayer an extra $4 per year at most in federal taxes. It is not a lot to ask, really, for better representation, given that most American congressional districts have to serve over 700,000 people each at present.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Nov 13, 2024 18:59:05 GMT
California is a very poorly run state and has been for a very long time. I suppose that is because it is dominated by Democrats? There is a strong bipartisan consensus in California that 'bad governance' is right, important and moral, and in this they're backed up by an electorate that has consistently voted in favour of various lunatic measures over the decades and who get very cross at the idea of repealing them. Possibly too much sunlight addles the brain. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 13, 2024 19:14:15 GMT
Yes-much too large for a recount even at US Senate level. Incidentally, the House of Representatives still has not finished counting and there is still an outside chance the Democrats could gain it, albeit only by 1 seat. I suppose that is true but only on the basis that no election is actually over till the contest is certified. In reality the GOP have almost certainly won at least 219 seats and will probably have 221 (AK-AL and CA-13). |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,437
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 13, 2024 19:18:10 GMT
I suppose that is because it is dominated by Democrats? There is a strong bipartisan consensus in California that 'bad governance' is right, important and moral, and in this they're backed up by an electorate that has consistently voted in favour of various lunatic measures over the decades and who get very cross at the idea of repealing them. Possibly too much sunlight addles the brain. Jerry Brown did well here - he realised there was many good things which were needed, but the problem was always 'won't pay' |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 13, 2024 19:23:03 GMT
Tom Cotton defeated Joni Ernst to become Chair of the Senate Republican Conference, the number three position in the leadership that was previously held by John Barrasso. In order to run Ernst vacated her position as Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, the number four position. Shelly Moore Capito ran uncontested for that position and her current spot as Vice Chair of the Senate Republican Conference was taken by James Lankford in another uncontested race. Tim Scott was elected, also unopposed, as Chairman of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee.
|
|
aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,999
Member is Online
|
Post by aargauer on Nov 13, 2024 19:31:42 GMT
Back to Montana, Tester seems screwed. This is a 2.3/3 pollster with 583. Texas looks increasingly more winnable for the Democrats than Texas at the Senatorial level. In 2018, Cruz won re-election by 2% over Beto O'Rourke, while Tester won by about 3% over Matt Rosendale. This was likely to happen at some point. In 2020, the Republicans won the governorship and the other Senate seat by 10%, despite a strong candidate for Democrats in sitting governor Bob Bullock. A lot of Tester's win can be credited to the Keystone XL pipeline which in particular spiked Native American turnout, as I recall. However, to win Texas, Democrats will need to spend a lot there in the final weeks. Hold on, this is the new name for Rasmussen, aka Republican, aka junk polling. It was spot on! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 19:31:56 GMT
If Cornyn can’t be in leadership or a Committee chair, he may simply retire in 2026. That’d make for an interesting primary. Conyn might face a primary challenger too.
|
|
aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,999
Member is Online
|
Post by aargauer on Nov 13, 2024 19:44:01 GMT
The poll eastmidlandsright posted has Cruz up 48%-44% over Allred. It's Montana where Democrats have no hope. Also, I doubt Tester would be all that reliable - what if he turns out to be another Manchin? We can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, obviously, and I want Tester to hold on. But he isn't going to, realistically. Biden lost Texas by 5%, while losing Montana by 15%. We saw a similar realignment in 2020 when Democrats lost the Senate race and governorship by 10%, with a popular candidate running for the Senate seat. Hear me now, quote me later, Allred is the underdog, but he sure as hell is getting closer to winning than Tester. To say they have "no hope of actually winning the Texas Senate seat" betrays a pretty revealing lack of knowledge about US politics. The Trump-Tester voters are most unlikely to keep ticket-splitting in the numbers required to win. To your second point, the Rio Grande Valley also swung to Bush in 2004 before bolting leftwards again - Bush won Blue Dog Democrat Henry Cuellar's TX-28 in 2004. The Rio Grande Valley really isn't all that populated. I'd sacrifice it to win suburban Austin, Dallas and Houston. The RGV isn't growing either. I bet you one pint that Tester loses by a smaller margin than Allred does. (I do think Tester will lose, but don't view it as in the bag - and why would it be, given he won by 3.5 points only 6 years ago and there are no significant demographic trends). If I had to guess I think some Tester voters will come home and he will lose by 2 or 3. I'm very thirsty for that pint despite a "pretty revealing lack of knowledge about US politics." 😂 Beginners luck betting against Sanders, Ralston and that Iowa woman and winning all 3 😘 |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 19:46:30 GMT
I bet you one pint that Tester loses by a smaller margin than Allred does. (I do think Tester will lose, but don't view it as in the bag - and why would it be, given he won by 3.5 points only 6 years ago and there are no significant demographic trends). If I had to guess I think some Tester voters will come home and he will lose by 2 or 3. I'm very thirsty for that pint despite a "pretty revealing lack of knowledge about US politics." 😂 I already messaged you about this. Pick a time and a place. No need to use my real name. We can talk about Cooley. Your law insights should be useful. I need to get a real job rather than posting on this site day and night. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Nov 13, 2024 19:53:50 GMT
Yes-much too large for a recount even at US Senate level. Incidentally, the House of Representatives still has not finished counting and there is still an outside chance the Democrats could gain it, albeit only by 1 seat. It is shocking but not surprising that it still only has 435 members, despite the US population at the last census (2020) being approximately 331.4 million. According to the "cube root law" as has often been discussed on this forum, there should be (taking geographical factors into account and the need for each US state to have at least one congressional district) 695 seats in the House of Representatives now. By my calculations (extra congressional wages, security costs and administrative costs) an increase of 260 seats would only cost each American taxpayer an extra $4 per year at most in federal taxes. It is not a lot to ask, really, for better representation, given that most American congressional districts have to serve over 700,000 people each at present. On that note, here is how many congressional districts each state would have in a 695 seat House of Representatives (based on 2020 USA census data, comparisons are to their actual entitlement, and the need for each state to have at least one district): California: 82 (+31) Texas: 61 (+23) Florida: 45 (+17) New York: 42 (+16) Pennsylvania: 27 (+10) Illinois: 27 (+10) Ohio: 25 (+10) Georgia: 23 (+9) North Carolina: 22 (+8) Michigan: 21 (+8) New Jersey: 20 (+8) Virginia: 18 (+7) Washington: 16 (+6) Arizona: 15 (+6) Massachusetts: 15 (+6) Tennessee: 14 (+5) Indiana: 14 (+5) Maryland: 13 (+5) Missouri: 13 (+5) Wisconsin: 12 (+4) Colorado: 12 (+4) Minnesota: 12 (+4) South Carolina: 11 (+4) Alabama: 11 (+4) Louisiana: 10 (+4) Kentucky: 10 (+4) Oregon: 9 (+3) Oklahoma: 8 (+3) Connecticut: 8 (+3) Utah: 7 (+3) Iowa: 7 (+3) Nevada: 7 (+3) Arkansas: 6 (+2) Mississippi: 6 (+2) Kansas: 6 (+2) New Mexico: 4 (+1) Nebraska: 4 (+1) Idaho: 4 (+2) West Virginia: 4 (+2) Hawaii: 3 (+1) New Hampshire: 3 (+1) Maine: 3 (+1) Rhode Island: 2 (nc) Montana: 2 (nc) Delaware: 2 (+1) South Dakota: 2 (+1) North Dakota: 1 (+1) Alaska 2 (+1) Vermont: 1 (nc) Wyoming: 1 (nc) |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 13, 2024 19:56:42 GMT
Hold on, this is the new name for Rasmussen, aka Republican, aka junk polling. It was spot on! A broken clock is right twice a day; given the sheer volume of polls Rasmussen does he’s bound to get one right, and he’s actually understated both Sheehy and Tester by a couple of percent which I’m guessing means he’s overestimated the third party candidate. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 20:03:50 GMT
I bet you one pint that Tester loses by a smaller margin than Allred does. (I do think Tester will lose, but don't view it as in the bag - and why would it be, given he won by 3.5 points only 6 years ago and there are no significant demographic trends). If I had to guess I think some Tester voters will come home and he will lose by 2 or 3. I'm very thirsty for that pint despite a "pretty revealing lack of knowledge about US politics." 😂Beginners luck betting against Sanders, Ralston and that Iowa woman and winning all 3 😘 It takes one to know one I guess. My issue isn't a lack of knowledge about US politics, more a lack of basic reasoning skills, critical thinking and general intelligence. There's a reason I post on this forum all day - it's because I lack the reasoning abilities to get an actual job. Why do you think I got a 62 in Finals? Maybe I should do something about all of that, but it's easier to post on this website looking for attention all day long than actually fix things. You have to love the internet for its potential for escapism. I think you once said I shouldn't go into journalism - deleted my old account over that, but you were spot on. |
|
aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,999
Member is Online
|
Post by aargauer on Nov 13, 2024 20:13:23 GMT
I'm very thirsty for that pint despite a "pretty revealing lack of knowledge about US politics." 😂Beginners luck betting against Sanders, Ralston and that Iowa woman and winning all 3 😘 It takes one to know one I guess. My issue isn't a lack of knowledge about US politics, more a lack of basic reasoning skills, critical thinking and general intelligence. There's a reason I post on this forum all day - it's because I lack the reasoning abilities to get an actual job. Why do you think I got a 62 in Finals? Maybe I should do something about all of that, but it's easier to post on this website looking for attention all day long than actually fix things. You have to love the internet for its potential for escapism. I think you once said I shouldn't go into journalism - deleted my old account over that, but you were spot on. I didn't mean that as an insult. Your articles are pretty good - you can write. Just that it's a declining, insecure, badly paid profession. You aren't stupid. You need more polish and focus and to not feel sorry for yourself. Not more brains. If you felt stupid by Oxbridge standards join the club. No shame in that whatsoever. I had to work like a dog to keep up with people with much more talent than I had. |
|
