The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2024 15:45:09 GMT
"After going three nil up, they collapsed to a 3-1 win". 53-47 is quite a bit different from 57-43, though. The latter would have all but ensured GOP control of the Senate for the foreseeable, with things as they are the Dems still have a way back. |
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Post by relique on Nov 12, 2024 15:49:03 GMT
"After going three nil up, they collapsed to a 3-1 win". 53-47 is quite a bit different from 57-43, though. The latter would have all but ensured GOP control of the Senate for the foreseeable, with things as they are the Dems still have a way back.
They have a way back in four years.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 12, 2024 18:47:39 GMT
"After going three nil up, they collapsed to a 3-1 win". 53-47 is quite a bit different from 57-43, though. The latter would have all but ensured GOP control of the Senate for the foreseeable, with things as they are the Dems still have a way back. Well obviously, but 53-47 was very much at the upper end of the GOPs expectations for this cycle and it was far from certain that they would even win a majority. A month ago you would be hard pressed to find a single serious analyst predicting anything better than 51-49 and even by election day Casey still looked heavy favourite and Brown looked to be a tight race, albeit one that was moving away from him. To suggest that the GOP have somehow blown it by not winning a number of races where they were never expected to win is an absurd attempt at rewriting history. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 19:38:38 GMT
Mr Johnson, I don't feel good. Another January 2023 in the offing?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 5:34:29 GMT
Casey still yet to concede. We’re now in recount territory.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 13, 2024 8:50:26 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 13, 2024 9:03:38 GMT
John Fetterman has already confirmed he will vote to confirm Marco Rubio as Secretary of State thehill.com/homenews/senate/4985740-fetterman-will-vote-for-rubio-as-secretary-of-state/Historically cabinet nominees coming from the Senate would get near unanimous support because of the Senate being a small club where pretty much everyone knows each other, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry got confirmed with over 90 votes which wasn’t even that long ago. In these much more partisan times it’s probably not that simple now, but you’d think Rubio will be acceptable enough to still get a decent number of Democrat votes |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 13, 2024 11:49:02 GMT
53-47 is quite a bit different from 57-43, though. The latter would have all but ensured GOP control of the Senate for the foreseeable, with things as they are the Dems still have a way back. Well obviously, but 53-47 was very much at the upper end of the GOPs expectations for this cycle and it was far from certain that they would even win a majority. A month ago you would be hard pressed to find a single serious analyst predicting anything better than 51-49 and even by election day Casey still looked heavy favourite and Brown looked to be a tight race, albeit one that was moving away from him. To suggest that the GOP have somehow blown it by not winning a number of races where they were never expected to win is an absurd attempt at rewriting history. Of course I know all this. But on election night when it became clear Trump was going to win, there was also excited talk of 56 or even 57 Senate seats for the GOP. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 13, 2024 11:50:44 GMT
Well obviously, but 53-47 was very much at the upper end of the GOPs expectations for this cycle and it was far from certain that they would even win a majority. A month ago you would be hard pressed to find a single serious analyst predicting anything better than 51-49 and even by election day Casey still looked heavy favourite and Brown looked to be a tight race, albeit one that was moving away from him. To suggest that the GOP have somehow blown it by not winning a number of races where they were never expected to win is an absurd attempt at rewriting history. Of course I know all this. But on election night when it became clear Trump was going to won, there was also excited talk of 56 or even 57 Senate seats for the GOP. It certainly did look possible based on initial numbers, but it seems there was just enough split ticketing across most of the swing states to rescue the Democrats in that sense |
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Post by adlai52 on Nov 13, 2024 11:50:58 GMT
John Fetterman has already confirmed he will vote to confirm Marco Rubio as Secretary of State thehill.com/homenews/senate/4985740-fetterman-will-vote-for-rubio-as-secretary-of-state/Historically cabinet nominees coming from the Senate would get near unanimous support because of the Senate being a small club where pretty much everyone knows each other, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry got confirmed with over 90 votes which wasn’t even that long ago. In these much more partisan times it’s probably not that simple now, but you’d think Rubio will be acceptable enough to still get a decent number of Democrat votes Rubio is a pretty safe bet to get confirmed I would expect. Some of the other less so, but beyond Collins and Murkowski you need to look to the likes of Todd Young, Bill Cassidy or (maybe) Shelley Moore Capito for Republican votes that might sink an 'unacceptable' cabinet nominee. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 13, 2024 12:06:30 GMT
John Fetterman has already confirmed he will vote to confirm Marco Rubio as Secretary of State thehill.com/homenews/senate/4985740-fetterman-will-vote-for-rubio-as-secretary-of-state/Historically cabinet nominees coming from the Senate would get near unanimous support because of the Senate being a small club where pretty much everyone knows each other, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry got confirmed with over 90 votes which wasn’t even that long ago. In these much more partisan times it’s probably not that simple now, but you’d think Rubio will be acceptable enough to still get a decent number of Democrat votes Rubio is a pretty safe bet to get confirmed I would expect. Some of the other less so, but beyond Collins and Murkowski you need to look to the likes of Todd Young, Bill Cassidy or (maybe) Shelley Moore Capito for Republican votes that might sink an 'unacceptable' cabinet nominee. Even Collins and Murkowski were generally on board last time around with Trump’s cabinet and judges, so it will take a special case for there to be enough Republicans voting against someone |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 13, 2024 12:27:56 GMT
270towin has now called CA-47 for Dems.
This now brings the tallies to 219-214
5 still to declare: CA-9, CA-13, CA-21, CA-45 and Alaska-AL
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Post by timmullen on Nov 13, 2024 12:31:15 GMT
John Fetterman has already confirmed he will vote to confirm Marco Rubio as Secretary of State thehill.com/homenews/senate/4985740-fetterman-will-vote-for-rubio-as-secretary-of-state/Historically cabinet nominees coming from the Senate would get near unanimous support because of the Senate being a small club where pretty much everyone knows each other, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry got confirmed with over 90 votes which wasn’t even that long ago. In these much more partisan times it’s probably not that simple now, but you’d think Rubio will be acceptable enough to still get a decent number of Democrat votes Rubio is a pretty safe bet to get confirmed I would expect. Some of the other less so, but beyond Collins and Murkowski you need to look to the likes of Todd Young, Bill Cassidy or (maybe) Shelley Moore Capito for Republican votes that might sink an 'unacceptable' cabinet nominee. John Neely Kennedy has shown a bit of a stubborn streak with nominees he genuinely didn’t feel were qualified; there was one during the first Trump term who he utterly excoriated in committee to the point her nomination was withdrawn by the end of the day. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 13, 2024 12:57:25 GMT
Rubio is a pretty safe bet to get confirmed I would expect. Some of the other less so, but beyond Collins and Murkowski you need to look to the likes of Todd Young, Bill Cassidy or (maybe) Shelley Moore Capito for Republican votes that might sink an 'unacceptable' cabinet nominee. John Neely Kennedy has shown a bit of a stubborn streak with nominees he genuinely didn’t feel were qualified; there was one during the first Trump term who he utterly excoriated in committee to the point her nomination was withdrawn by the end of the day. It was a he - Matthew S . Peterson - in 2017, and it was excruciating. He did a similar thing last year with Judge Ana de Alba, but she did get appointed in the end. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 13, 2024 13:01:16 GMT
270towin has now called CA-47 for Dems. This now brings the tallies to 219-214 5 still to declare: CA-9, CA-13, CA-21, CA-45 and Alaska-AL We can say with some confidence now that CA-9 and CA-21 will go Democratic and AK-AL will go Republican, so 220-216 with 2 total toss-ups to be decided. |
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Post by dizz on Nov 13, 2024 13:03:40 GMT
270towin has now called CA-47 for Dems. This now brings the tallies to 219-214 5 still to declare: CA-9, CA-13, CA-21, CA-45 and Alaska-AL Your numbers only include 3 missing seats as there are 435 seats but you have 5 yet to declare so they don’t tally (sorry). BTW I have both 9 and 21 as dead certs for the Dems (Costa has perennially had to rely on postals). |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 13, 2024 13:27:12 GMT
270towin has now called CA-47 for Dems. This now brings the tallies to 219-214 5 still to declare: CA-9, CA-13, CA-21, CA-45 and Alaska-AL Your numbers only include 3 missing seats as there are 435 seats but you have 5 yet to declare so they don’t tally (sorry). BTW I have both 9 and 21 as dead certs for the Dems (Costa has perennially had to rely on postals). I read from the wrong column. Thanks for pointing out. Its currently 219-211. Will probably end up 221-214 so basically no change! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 13, 2024 13:31:22 GMT
That will make it three House elections in a row to produce a majority around the 220-222 mark. Are narrow majorities like this maybe going to be the norm now or is it just a coincidental set of circumstances?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2024 13:34:00 GMT
270towin has now called CA-47 for Dems. This now brings the tallies to 219-214 5 still to declare: CA-9, CA-13, CA-21, CA-45 and Alaska-AL Orange County looking good for Tran. I think Democrats will take CA-45. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 13, 2024 14:15:09 GMT
270towin has now called CA-47 for Dems. This now brings the tallies to 219-214 5 still to declare: CA-9, CA-13, CA-21, CA-45 and Alaska-AL Your numbers only include 3 missing seats as there are 435 seats but you have 5 yet to declare so they don’t tally (sorry). BTW I have both 9 and 21 as dead certs for the Dems (Costa has perennially had to rely on postals). Genuinely ludicrous IMO that those two haven't been called. |
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