Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 5:57:08 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 12, 2024 7:18:24 GMT
"After going three nil up, they collapsed to a 3-1 win".
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384 
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 8:04:41 GMT
I doubt any of that was decisive aside from Lake. They could have spread resources more but thatās with real benefit of hindsight |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 9:03:22 GMT
Stop the Steel.
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Nov 12, 2024 13:58:21 GMT
Not sure if already posted elsewhere, but according to 270towin at least, the GOP has achieved its House majority. Currently 219-210 with 6 seats still uncalled:
CA - 9, 13, 21, 45 & 47 + AK-AL
They're projecting CA9, 13 & 21 for Dems with the other 3 toss-ups.
This means we're probably looking at a range between 219-216 to 222-213
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 14:00:16 GMT
Not sure if already posted elsewhere, but according to 270towin at least, the GOP has achieved its House majority. Currently 219-210 with 6 seats still uncalled: CA - 9, 13, 21, 45 & 47 + AK-AL They're projecting CA9, 13 & 21 for Dems with the other 3 toss-ups. This means we're probably looking at a range between 219-216 to 222-213 Be a similar narrow majority that lead to the farcical fights over the Speakership in the last congress. Although with them now being part of a trifecta you have to think theyāll try and avoid those divisions being played out in such a way this time? |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Nov 12, 2024 14:04:55 GMT
It depends I suppose whether MAGA has now completely flushed out any residual resistance from 'normal republicans'. Time will tell I guess
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 12, 2024 14:13:14 GMT
Not sure if already posted elsewhere, but according to 270towin at least, the GOP has achieved its House majority. Currently 219-210 with 6 seats still uncalled: CA - 9, 13, 21, 45 & 47 + AK-AL They're projecting CA9, 13 & 21 for Dems with the other 3 toss-ups. This means we're probably looking at a range between 219-216 to 222-213 Be a similar narrow majority that lead to the farcical fights over the Speakership in the last congress. Although with them now being part of a trifecta you have to think theyāll try and avoid those divisions being played out in such a way this time? Plus potential vacancies if Trump does successfully appoint Stefanik and Waltz (or any other member) to his Administration; although the Districts are solidly Republican on paper, Special Elections do take 3-6 months because of primaries etc., so those are votes Johnson (assuming heās still Speaker) wonāt have. There are suggestions on X that Garcia has called George Whitesides to concede CA27, so if so thatās a Democratic pickup. Michelle Steel looks as if sheās going to lose CA45 to Derek Tran going on the last two updates (sheās losing roughly 58-42 on each). |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 14:16:07 GMT
It depends I suppose whether MAGA has now completely flushed out any residual resistance from 'normal republicans'. Time will tell I guess Lisa Murkowski is still a Senator. Dan Newhouse and David Valadao who voted to impeach Trump are still in office. Trump also opposed several gubernatorial candidates in 2022 (Brad Little in Idaho, Brian Kemp in Georgia and Jim Pillen in Nebraska) who all won. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 14:18:12 GMT
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 14:21:45 GMT
It depends I suppose whether MAGA has now completely flushed out any residual resistance from 'normal republicans'. Time will tell I guess Lisa Murkowski is still a Senator. Dan Newhouse and David Valadao who voted to impeach Trump are still in office. Trump also opposed several gubernatorial candidates in 2022 (Brad Little in Idaho, Brian Kemp in Georgia and Jim Pillen in Nebraska) who all won. There are still House members and Senators who didnāt vote for impeachment and have been quiet enough to not burn bridges with Trump but are still sceptical of him at heart. Not everyone has become true believer looking to follow his every single instruction |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438
|
Post by iain on Nov 12, 2024 14:35:33 GMT
Not sure if already posted elsewhere, but according to 270towin at least, the GOP has achieved its House majority. Currently 219-210 with 6 seats still uncalled: CA - 9, 13, 21, 45 & 47 + AK-AL They're projecting CA9, 13 & 21 for Dems with the other 3 toss-ups. This means we're probably looking at a range between 219-216 to 222-213 CA-9, 21 and 47 are likely Dem. CA-13 and 45 are probably mildly tilting Dem, but are incredibly close and could go either way. AK-AL has an awful lot of votes still to count, but youād definitely rather be a Begich (R) at the moment, much closer to likely than lean. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 12, 2024 14:40:53 GMT
Lisa Murkowski is still a Senator. Dan Newhouse and David Valadao who voted to impeach Trump are still in office. Trump also opposed several gubernatorial candidates in 2022 (Brad Little in Idaho, Brian Kemp in Georgia and Jim Pillen in Nebraska) who all won. There are still House members and Senators who didnāt vote for impeachment and have been quiet enough to not burn bridges with Trump but are still sceptical of him at heart. Not everyone has become true believer looking to follow his every single instruction Of those there at the time I think Valadao and Newhouse are the only two remaining in the House (and neither race has yet been called by the AP, although both look safe). |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 14:54:09 GMT
There are still House members and Senators who didnāt vote for impeachment and have been quiet enough to not burn bridges with Trump but are still sceptical of him at heart. Not everyone has become true believer looking to follow his every single instruction Of those there at the time I think Valadao and Newhouse are the only two remaining in the House (and neither race has yet been called by the AP, although both look safe). Indeed, the other 8 went in 2022 with a mixture of retirement and primary defeats Pretty much all remaining GOP members of congress have had to at least go soft with Trump in order to stay in politics and people will have their views on the rights and wrongs of that, but I still think thereās some gap between those who are his true believers and those that will see themselves as just being practical |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 12, 2024 14:57:55 GMT
but I still think thereās some gap between those who are his true believers and those that will see themselves as just being practical Probably so, but how often does that translate into votes, and are they outnumbered by the true believers (Gaetz, MTG, Boebert etc)? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 14:58:47 GMT
There are still House members and Senators who didnāt vote for impeachment and have been quiet enough to not burn bridges with Trump but are still sceptical of him at heart. Not everyone has become true believer looking to follow his every single instruction Of those there at the time I think Valadao and Newhouse are the only two remaining in the House (and neither race has yet been called by the AP, although both look safe). 2/10 House Republicans who voted to impeach in 2021 are still there. 3/7 Senators. Of those Senators, two are up for re-election in 2026 (Cassidy and Collins). Louisiana has axed blanket primaries after 50 years. I think someone like Julia Letlow or Steve Scalise will primary Bill Cassidy in the Pelican State. The last elected Republican Senator to lose a primary was Richard Lugar in 2012 (if you're counting appointed Senators, Luther Strange lost the primary in Alabama in 2017). |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 15:03:23 GMT
but I still think thereās some gap between those who are his true believers and those that will see themselves as just being practical Probably so, but how often does that translate into votes, and are they outnumbered by the true believers (Gaetz, MTG, Boebert etc)? I suppose it depends on whatās being voted on, certainly in the Speakership contest that dragged on forever last year there was enough opposition to Jim Jordan despite Trump endorsing him. Mike Johnson ended up largely being a compromise |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 15:06:21 GMT
Bloody hell not this slimy creature. He could lose a special election. Brown vs Ramaswamy match up incoming?
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 12, 2024 15:09:13 GMT
Probably so, but how often does that translate into votes, and are they outnumbered by the true believers (Gaetz, MTG, Boebert etc)? I suppose it depends on whatās being voted on, certainly in the Speakership contest that dragged on forever last year there was enough opposition to Jim Jordan despite Trump endorsing him. Mike Johnson ended up largely being a compromise Yes, but Jordanās a bit like Ted Cruz, even his friends dislike him! Johnson was a compromise, but if Jeffries had agreed to at least abstain they had the votes to reinstate McCarthy. I was thinking more along the lines of votes on continuing funding for Ukraine, some of the programs of the apparently to be abolished Department of Education that are actually pretty important (funding for classroom assistants for pupils on the autistic spectrum for example). |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 15:16:05 GMT
Bloody hell not this slimy creature. He could lose a special election. Brown vs Ramaswamy match up and coming?Ā Interesting, had seen that mentioned but I was thinking DeWine would go for someone on his more moderate wing of the party |
|
