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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 10:54:39 GMT
I would be mildly surprised if he wins, although a three way split with him peeking through the middle is plausible, but Auntie seems to think otherwise (you may need to scroll down): www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2e7jdjdmplt(The list in the original Xeet seems quaint as it’s got Thune backing Cornyn (who I seriously hope doesn’t get it as my phone keeps autocorrecting to Corbyn!)). That list itself may be inaccurate but I have to say I’d be really surprised if Scott won, I didn’t think Trump’s influence over the Senate group would be that strong even in the event of victory Scott is also extremely incompetent |
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Post by timmullen on Nov 11, 2024 10:56:13 GMT
That list itself may be inaccurate but I have to say I’d be really surprised if Scott won, I didn’t think Trump’s influence over the Senate group would be that strong even in the event of victory Scott is also extremely incompetent It does seem as though fealty to Trump outweighs competence in much of today’s GOP. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 11:12:36 GMT
Steve Daines might have been more of a Trump loyalist candidate with credibility as he chaired the NRSC this time around and did some good work with candidate recruitment and obviously they won the majority back. However he chose not to run despite some encouragement from Trump apparently
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2024 11:28:49 GMT
Democrats narrow the gap in CA-45. They're holding up well in California. Katie Porter's seat may stay blue.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2024 11:56:09 GMT
Yes its notable how well the Dems are doing in California, given how it was a relative bright spot for the GOP two years ago. A genuine Harris boost on her home turf?
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 12:00:34 GMT
Yes its notable how well the Dems are doing in California, given how it was a relative bright spot for the GOP two years ago. A genuine Harris boost on her home turf? They’re not doing that well compared to 2022 in most districts, CA-27 and CA-45 are special cases. CA-45: Trump is almost certainly winning the district, but the race has been extremely nasty and Vietnamese voters are splitting their ticket Trump-Tran (would have been an easy GOP hold if a Vietnamese republican run instead of the Korean Steel) CA-27: Garcia won in 2020,2022 because he had a bad opponent, Trump is performing much better in the district compared to the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2022. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2024 12:09:21 GMT
Yes its notable how well the Dems are doing in California, given how it was a relative bright spot for the GOP two years ago. A genuine Harris boost on her home turf? They’re not doing that well compared to 2022 in most districts, CA-27 and CA-45 are special cases. CA-45: Trump is almost certainly winning the district, but the race has been extremely nasty and Vietnamese voters are splitting their ticket Trump-Tran (would have been an easy GOP hold if a Vietnamese republican run instead of the Korean Steel) CA-27: Garcia won in 2020,2022 because he had a bad opponent, Trump is performing much better in the district compared to the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2022. CA-27 - 2020 special election unwind happening. Like how the Tories held Crewe & Nantwich twice after the 2008 by-election. It's a heavily Democratic seat. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 12:12:31 GMT
Yes its notable how well the Dems are doing in California, given how it was a relative bright spot for the GOP two years ago. A genuine Harris boost on her home turf? They’re not doing that well compared to 2022 in most districts, CA-27 and CA-45 are special cases. CA-45: Trump is almost certainly winning the district, but the race has been extremely nasty and Vietnamese voters are splitting their ticket Trump-Tran (would have been an easy GOP hold if a Vietnamese republican run instead of the Korean Steel) CA-27: Garcia won in 2020,2022 because he had a bad opponent, Trump is performing much better in the district compared to the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2022. Is David Valadao expected to hold on? |
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Post by timmullen on Nov 11, 2024 12:18:17 GMT
They’re not doing that well compared to 2022 in most districts, CA-27 and CA-45 are special cases. CA-45: Trump is almost certainly winning the district, but the race has been extremely nasty and Vietnamese voters are splitting their ticket Trump-Tran (would have been an easy GOP hold if a Vietnamese republican run instead of the Korean Steel) CA-27: Garcia won in 2020,2022 because he had a bad opponent, Trump is performing much better in the district compared to the GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2022. Is David Valadao expected to hold on? Decision Desk called it for him yesterday, but the AP are still holding off. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 12:20:50 GMT
Is David Valadao expected to hold on? Decision Desk called it for him yesterday, but the AP are still holding off. Was going by the Google search which seems to go by the AP calls that it hadn’t been called yet |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2024 12:21:33 GMT
Decision Desk called it for him yesterday, but the AP are still holding off. Was going by the Google search which seems to go by the AP calls that it hadn’t been called yet Decision Desk > AP quite honestly. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2024 13:46:48 GMT
Looks like we've got a quick Special Election in New York, as Trump has appointed Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador.
NY-21 is the northernmost bit of New York, north of Albany.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 13:49:24 GMT
Looks like we've got a quick Special Election in New York, as Trump has appointed Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador. NY-21 is the northernmost bit of New York, north of Albany. Pretty safe GOP territory |
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 11, 2024 13:53:33 GMT
Looks like we've got a quick Special Election in New York, as Trump has appointed Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador. NY-21 is the northernmost bit of New York, north of Albany. Pretty safe GOP territory Though did vote for Obama twice, so has some past Dem strength even though it swung quite dramatically towards Trump in 2016. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 14:03:10 GMT
Pretty safe GOP territory Though did vote for Obama twice, so has some past Dem strength even though it swung quite dramatically towards Trump in 2016. Still would seem fairly risk free special election wise even allowing for usual swings against the White House incumbent party Stefanik started off as a Trump critic but became arguably his strongest defender in congress, she was always going to be rewarded somehow although she got passed up for VP consideration |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 14:15:08 GMT
Though did vote for Obama twice, so has some past Dem strength even though it swung quite dramatically towards Trump in 2016. Still would seem fairly risk free special election wise even allowing for usual swings against the White House incumbent party Stefanik started off as a Trump critic but became arguably his strongest defender in congress, she was always going to be rewarded somehow although she got passed up for VP consideration The GOP also has a very strong bench in the district. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 11, 2024 18:15:24 GMT
Thune seems the heavy favourite here. Rick Scott was an ineffective RSCC Chair. He already tried running for leadership. It didn't end well for him. Mitch McConnell backs Thune here, FWIW. Cornyn hasn't been in leadership recently. while the actual numbers are actually right, the senators listed supporting each candidates are wrong. Some of those look a bit suspect to me but Cruz backing Thune simply a matter of self interest. Cruz is currently ranking member of the Commerce Committee and will become Chairman in January as long as Thune wins the leadership race. However if Thune loses he would doubtless assert his seniority over Cruz on that Committee and retake the Chairmanship that he held from 2015 to 2019. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 12, 2024 0:18:14 GMT
Unsurprisingly there’s some backlash within the Senate GOP about the public pressure campaign that has built up for Rick Scott’s leadership candidacy. Although Trump himself hasn’t intervened quite a few of his surrogates have, and it’s ended up with Senators getting MAGA trolling on social media that basically says they’re RINO traitors if they vote for Thune or Cornyn Unlike the House the Senate isn’t really used to its leadership being played out as a public spectacle and it’s a much smaller club. So if anything this is probably going to harden people against Scott and it’s a secret ballot thehill.com/homenews/senate/4984638-scott-allies-pressure-campaign/ |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2024 0:32:14 GMT
A second US House Special Election on the way as Michael Waltz (R-FL) is to be National Security Adviser.
His district includes Daytona Beach up to the southern suburbs of Jacksonville and looks safely Republican. Was held by Ron DeSantis before he became Governor.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2024 5:02:00 GMT
Elise Stefanik's seat is as safe as Conor Lamb's old seat in Pennsylvania prior to him winning the special election there in Trump's first term. Make of that what you will. If Democrats pick someone popular in state or local government there. They should certainly invest in the New York's 21st Congressional District special election.
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