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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 10, 2024 10:39:09 GMT
Democrats should be genuinely thankful that the GOP keeps selecting clowns for Senate marginals. Not really true this time. Kari Lake was the only nutcase selected for a winnable race. Mike Rogers (MI), Sam Brown (NV) and Eric Hovde (WI) were all solid mainstream candidates. Brown and Hovde narrowly lost to strong incumbents while Rogers lost narrowly to an impressive opponent (an incumbent house member for a GOP leaning district). In all three races the Democrats had a massive financial advantage. In general incumbent senators should out perform their party's losing presidential candidate and pretty much every serious analyst considered all three of these races to favour the democrats even in circumstances where Trump was winning the respective states. Based on the Presidential result in each state 53-47 for the Senate is pretty much what should been expected, just with GOP wining Arizona and Casey narrowly hanging on in Pennsylvania. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 10, 2024 11:42:49 GMT
Jared Golden's lead in ME-02 is down to just 726 votes and he has fallen below 50%. It looks like the second preferences of the 1,200 or so write in votes will need to be counted.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 10, 2024 12:59:25 GMT
Democrats should be genuinely thankful that the GOP keeps selecting clowns for Senate marginals. Not really true this time. Kari Lake was the only nutcase selected for a winnable race. Mike Rogers (MI), Sam Brown (NV) and Eric Hovde (WI) were all solid mainstream candidates. Brown and Hovde narrowly lost to strong incumbents while Rogers lost narrowly to an impressive opponent (an incumbent house member for a GOP leaning district). In all three races the Democrats had a massive financial advantage. In general incumbent senators should out perform their party's losing presidential candidate and pretty much every serious analyst considered all three of these races to favour the democrats even in circumstances where Trump was winning the respective states. Based on the Presidential result in each state 53-47 for the Senate is pretty much what should been expected, just with GOP wining Arizona and Casey narrowly hanging on in Pennsylvania. I’d agree with this, their candidate recruitment was generally OK this time If they had put more resources into the swing state Senate races then they may well be looking at a really big majority but as I’ve said before that is with real benefit of hindsight of the overall national picture. Tester and Brown were strong incumbents themselves even with the states not being in play at Presidential level so they couldn’t take those gains for granted, and the priority had to be the opportunity to win a simple majority even in the event of Harris winning |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 16:58:53 GMT
Jared Golden's lead in ME-02 is down to just 726 votes and he has fallen below 50%. It looks like the second preferences of the 1,200 or so write in votes will need to be counted. One wodners how many of those ballots are already exhausted with no second preferences. It would take a very good split for the GOP to overcome his lead since not everyone will second preference anyone or indeed one of the top two. I would much rather be Golden at this stage, but the fact that it's this close probably attests to Trump's long-standing strength across the Congressional District, rather than anything wrong with Golden, who appears a standard issue Blue Dog Democrat. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 10, 2024 17:09:00 GMT
Jared Golden's lead in ME-02 is down to just 726 votes and he has fallen below 50%. It looks like the second preferences of the 1,200 or so write in votes will need to be counted. One wodners how many of those ballots are already exhausted with no second preferences. It would take a very good split for the GOP to overcome his lead since not everyone will second preference anyone or indeed one of the top two. I would much rather be Golden at this stage, but the fact that it's this close probably attests to Trump's long-standing strength across the Congressional District, rather than anything wrong with Golden, who appears a standard issue Blue Dog Democrat. There are still some votes trickling in and Theriault clearly needs to cut the gap even further to have any chance of winning on the basis of second preferences from "write in" voters. Golden has clearly performed extremely well. Holding on in a Trump + 9 district would be a fantastic achievement. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) also looks to have held in in a Trump + 7 district but she probably would have lost had it not been for a Libertarian Party candidate taking 4%. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 18:38:14 GMT
Liberals win control of the Kentucky Supreme Court which may help Andy Beshear for his last few years as Democratic governor in the Bluegrass State.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 18:42:32 GMT
Consider that in 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4% and Trump and Biden both won 25 states apiece. So the Senator clearly favours the GOP. It's taken a while to catch up (2020 Senate was 50-50 and so were the states in the Electoral College). The 52 seats would be the current 47 plus Maine and North Carolina in 2026 (49), North Carolina and Wisconsin in 2028 (51) and Pennsylvania (52) in 2030.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 11, 2024 0:46:43 GMT
Consider that in 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4% and Trump and Biden both won 25 states apiece. So the Senator clearly favours the GOP. It's taken a while to catch up (2020 Senate was 50-50 and so were the states in the Electoral College). [snip] The 52 seats would be the current 47 plus Maine and North Carolina in 2026 (49), North Carolina and Wisconsin in 2028 (51) and Pennsylvania (52) in 2030. I posted this on Friday I have not seen much comment on this but from January there will be no red state Democrats in the Senate and unless this species can be revived it will be incredibly difficult for Democrats to win a Senate majority. At federal level it is probably reasonable to say that there are 19 blue states (all of the Harris won states), 7 purple states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI) and 24 red states (the remaining Trump states). That gives the GOP and incredibly solid foundation of 48 Senators leaving the Democrats needing to win nearly all the seats in purple states, they will likely have 10 from 14 of those in January but it isn't enough. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 11, 2024 1:34:56 GMT
So...where exactly are we now with the House races? 4 Dem gains in NY where redistricting was a factor (3rd, 4th, 19th and 22nd) 1 Dem gain in AL (2nd) due to new black majority district 1 Dem gain in LA (6th) due to new black majority district 3 GOP gains in NC almost totally down to redistricting (6th, 13th and 14th) 2 GOP gains in PA (7th and 8th) 1 GOP gain in MI (7th) GOP currently ahead in Dem held AK-AL GOP currently ahead in Dem held CO-08 Dem currently ahead in GOP held OR-05 If every race stays with the current leader it will be 223-212 in the GOPs favour compared to 222-213 last time. The New York Times has called races at 212-200. Of the 11 races the GOP are leading in they look pretty solid in at least 7 so I really can't see them falling short. Dem now ahead in GOP held CA-27 and look pretty likely to take the seat. In better news for the GOP the incumbent Democrat in CO-08 has conceded. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2024 5:39:45 GMT
Michigan's 3rd really saved Slotkin here. Grand Rapids has trended left recently. Moderate Republicans typically do well there. In 2022, they ousted Peter Meijer. Democrats easily took the seat then. It wasn't competitive this year either. Democrats look pretty entrenched in MI-03. A solid result in Michigan, considering.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2024 6:07:00 GMT
Thune seems the heavy favourite here. Rick Scott was an ineffective RSCC Chair. He already tried running for leadership. It didn't end well for him.
Mitch McConnell backs Thune here, FWIW. Cornyn hasn't been in leadership recently.
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 6:44:05 GMT
Thune seems the heavy favourite here. Rick Scott was an ineffective RSCC Chair. He already tried running for leadership. It didn't end well for him. Mitch McConnell backs Thune here, FWIW. Cornyn hasn't been in leadership recently. while the actual numbers are actually right, the senators listed supporting each candidates are wrong. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2024 6:47:37 GMT
Thune seems the heavy favourite here. Rick Scott was an ineffective RSCC Chair. He already tried running for leadership. It didn't end well for him. Mitch McConnell backs Thune here, FWIW. Cornyn hasn't been in leadership recently. while the actual numbers are actually right, the senators listed supporting each candidates are wrong. What are the actual senator endorsements? |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 7:26:00 GMT
while the actual numbers are actually right, the senators listed supporting each candidates are wrong. What are the actual senator endorsements? Someone who works for a gop senator on the hill (and who I have contact with for 2 years) said that his senator is listed as a Cornyn supporter when he’s a pretty outspoken (on the hill) Thune supporter. |
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Post by timmullen on Nov 11, 2024 7:38:20 GMT
Thune seems the heavy favourite here. Rick Scott was an ineffective RSCC Chair. He already tried running for leadership. It didn't end well for him. Mitch McConnell backs Thune here, FWIW. Cornyn hasn't been in leadership recently. Was this before Trump surrogates including the Muskrat came out for Scott? Incidentally we probably have our first special election of the new Congress - Trump has told the New York Times that he will nominate Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the UN. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 11, 2024 7:40:09 GMT
Thune seems the heavy favourite here. Rick Scott was an ineffective RSCC Chair. He already tried running for leadership. It didn't end well for him. Mitch McConnell backs Thune here, FWIW. Cornyn hasn't been in leadership recently. Was this before Trump surrogates including the Muskrat came out for Scott? Incidentally we probably have our first special election of the new Congress - Trump has told the New York Times that he will nominate Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the UN. it’s a secret ballot. Scott isn’t winnning. |
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Post by timmullen on Nov 11, 2024 7:47:57 GMT
Was this before Trump surrogates including the Muskrat came out for Scott? Incidentally we probably have our first special election of the new Congress - Trump has told the New York Times that he will nominate Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the UN. it’s a secret ballot. Scott isn’t winnning. I would be mildly surprised if he wins, although a three way split with him peeking through the middle is plausible, but Auntie seems to think otherwise (you may need to scroll down): www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2e7jdjdmplt(The list in the original Xeet seems quaint as it’s got Thune backing Cornyn (who I seriously hope doesn’t get it as my phone keeps autocorrecting to Corbyn!)). |
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Post by dizz on Nov 11, 2024 7:49:40 GMT
Dems now leading by 66k and 2.2% in the Arizona Senate race so that should be fully declared soon. Ruben has an impressive lead over the Harris position.
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 8:10:29 GMT
The only reason Scott gets any hype at all is because he’s considered to be more aligned to Trump. However the Senate is a small club, and he simply doesn’t have the history of building relationships or the fundraising ability like Thune and Cornyn have. While both have some history of conflict with Trump, particularly over Jan 6th, they haven’t done anything so far that would burn bridges
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2024 8:22:57 GMT
it’s a secret ballot. Scott isn’t winnning. I would be mildly surprised if he wins, although a three way split with him peeking through the middle is plausible, but Auntie seems to think otherwise (you may need to scroll down): www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2e7jdjdmplt(The list in the original Xeet seems quaint as it’s got Thune backing Cornyn (who I seriously hope doesn’t get it as my phone keeps autocorrecting to Corbyn!)). That list itself may be inaccurate but I have to say I’d be really surprised if Scott won, I didn’t think Trump’s influence over the Senate group would be that strong even in the event of victory |
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