Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2024 10:52:36 GMT
I don't think a defeated incumbent senator is in any position to try and be elected in a special election. I don't know how many did that in american history, but given that your financial backers have lost their bet, that you have exploited every political capital you had to get reelected, but still failed to do so, I'm not sure you'd be willing or in a position to be able to do the same thing a second time. He is still quite easily the best candidate the Democrats have in the state. If he wants to run he will attract little primary opposition and will have no problem raising money. Had Harris improved on Biden's margin of defeat only a bit, Sherrod Brown would've likely held on. It was a very impressive loss. At presidential level, Ohio was Safe Republican. That the Senate race was only Lean Republican for the used car salesman Bernie Moreno attests to Brown's crossover appeal in the Buckeye State. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,730
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 9, 2024 12:59:58 GMT
He is still quite easily the best candidate the Democrats have in the state. If he wants to run he will attract little primary opposition and will have no problem raising money. Had Harris improved on Biden's margin of defeat only a bit, Sherrod Brown would've likely held on. It was a very impressive loss. At presidential level, Ohio was Safe Republican. That the Senate race was only Lean Republican for the used car salesman Bernie Moreno attests to Brown's crossover appeal in the Buckeye State. Undoubtedly, it would be a very good outcome for the Democrats if Sherrod Brown ran in the special election as, without Trump on the top of the ticket, I think he would have a very strong chance of winning and, given that we will be into the Trump administration by then, with some tensions doubtless building over decisions made/proposed, he would perhaps even be favoured. Of course, the new VP will throw everything into campaigning for a GOP hold. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 9, 2024 13:04:20 GMT
So...where exactly are we now with the House races? 4 Dem gains in NY where redistricting was a factor (3rd, 4th, 19th and 22nd) 1 Dem gain in AL (2nd) due to new black majority district 1 Dem gain in LA (6th) due to new black majority district 3 GOP gains in NC almost totally down to redistricting (6th, 13th and 14th) 2 GOP gains in PA (7th and 8th) 1 GOP gain in MI (7th) GOP currently ahead in Dem held AK-AL GOP currently ahead in Dem held CO-08 Dem currently ahead in GOP held OR-05 If every race stays with the current leader it will be 223-212 in the GOPs favour compared to 222-213 last time. The New York Times has called races at 212-200. Of the 11 races the GOP are leading in they look pretty solid in at least 7 so I really can't see them falling short. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2024 13:07:12 GMT
So...where exactly are we now with the House races? 4 Dem gains in NY where redistricting was a factor (3rd, 4th, 19th and 22nd) 1 Dem gain in AL (2nd) due to new black majority district 1 Dem gain in LA (6th) due to new black majority district 3 GOP gains in NC almost totally down to redistricting (6th, 13th and 14th) 2 GOP gains in PA (7th and 8th) 1 GOP gain in MI (7th) GOP currently ahead in Dem held AK-AL GOP currently ahead in Dem held CO-08 Dem currently ahead in GOP held OR-05 If every race stays with the current leader it will be 223-212 in the GOPs favour compared to 222-213 last time. The New York Times has called races at 212-200. Of the 11 races the GOP are leading in they look pretty solid in at least 7 so I really can't see them falling short. indeed. Absolute best case scenario for Democrats is probably 220-215. We are effectively seeing a repeat of 2022 which was itself a reverse of 2020. |
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,277
|
Post by WJ on Nov 9, 2024 13:13:46 GMT
Just looking at the New York Times map and there does appear to be more outstanding votes in counties in which Gallego is leading, whereas Lake seems to be running out of counties; her only hope is winning the remaining votes by a fairly hefty margin. Flawed analysis. Lake has been closing the gap on Gallego in Maricopa County (roughly 60% of the state) as more votes have been counted. If that trend continues she will probably win. Hilariously the usual nutters are claiming that the the election is being stollen from Lake, their "evidence" being that she has polled substantially fewer voters than Trump. What a bunch of fruitcakes. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2024 13:18:18 GMT
I like Gallego. Therefore, I've looked for evidence that Gallego will win. Here it is. I'd rather be Ruben Gallego, just.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2024 13:27:53 GMT
I like Gallego. Therefore, I've looked for evidence that Gallego will win. Here it is. I'd rather be Ruben Gallego, just. Is there any chance Casey will hold on? I don't think there is and I don't want him to, but it would be kind of funny if all the swing states won by Trump with Senate elections split their ticket. A kind of added 'FU' to Harris |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 9, 2024 13:30:00 GMT
So...where exactly are we now with the House races? 4 Dem gains in NY where redistricting was a factor (3rd, 4th, 19th and 22nd) 1 Dem gain in AL (2nd) due to new black majority district 1 Dem gain in LA (6th) due to new black majority district 3 GOP gains in NC almost totally down to redistricting (6th, 13th and 14th) 2 GOP gains in PA (7th and 8th) 1 GOP gain in MI (7th) GOP currently ahead in Dem held AK-AL GOP currently ahead in Dem held CO-08 Dem currently ahead in GOP held OR-05 If every race stays with the current leader it will be 223-212 in the GOPs favour compared to 222-213 last time. The New York Times has called races at 212-200. Of the 11 races the GOP are leading in they look pretty solid in at least 7 so I really can't see them falling short. Although the NYT map hasn’t updated, Oregon media, and national outlets such as The Hill, are saying the Dems have flipped OR-05 (https://www.opb.org/article/2024/11/08/oregon-janelle-bynum-u-s-house-5th-congressional-district-congress-election-democrats-reupublicans-lori-chavez-deremer/?outputType=amp) |
|
|
|
Post by redvers on Nov 9, 2024 18:05:50 GMT
So...where exactly are we now with the House races? 4 Dem gains in NY where redistricting was a factor (3rd, 4th, 19th and 22nd) 1 Dem gain in AL (2nd) due to new black majority district 1 Dem gain in LA (6th) due to new black majority district 3 GOP gains in NC almost totally down to redistricting (6th, 13th and 14th) 2 GOP gains in PA (7th and 8th) 1 GOP gain in MI (7th) GOP currently ahead in Dem held AK-AL GOP currently ahead in Dem held CO-08 Dem currently ahead in GOP held OR-05 If every race stays with the current leader it will be 223-212 in the GOPs favour compared to 222-213 last time. The New York Times has called races at 212-200. Of the 11 races the GOP are leading in they look pretty solid in at least 7 so I really can't see them falling short. Thanks, really helpful summary |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2024 18:31:54 GMT
McCormick seems to have won but...
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 9, 2024 18:38:23 GMT
McCormick seems to have won but...  |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Nov 9, 2024 19:35:11 GMT
McCormick has won, all talk to the contrary is crap.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 5:49:03 GMT
DDHQ calls it for Ruben Gallego. Another Democrat wins a Trump state. The only shock for Democrats was Pennsylvania. WV was going Republican no matter what. Montana Tester had been the underdog for a long time. Ohio was always going to be tough because of the underlying trends in the state. 53-47 Republican Senate.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 7:17:04 GMT
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
|
Post by johng on Nov 10, 2024 8:56:03 GMT
DDHQ calls it for Ruben Gallego. Another Democrat wins a Trump state. The only shock for Democrats was Pennsylvania. WV was going Republican no matter what. Montana Tester had been the underdog for a long time. Ohio was always going to be tough because of the underlying trends in the state. 53-47 Republican Senate. The Dems have had pretty strong showings in legislative races given how well Trump has done.
The House is likely to end up around 220-215 to the GOP. That's going to make it very difficult for the Republicans to get things through even with Trump pushing for it. That's especially true if Trump appoints any House members to a position (as rumoured) and there are empty GOP seats waiting for the special election.
The Senate ending up 53-47 is better than it could have been given how many Trump states they won. The margin is PA is going to be so close, Casey will come in for a lot of criticism for a lackluster campaign, but Trump just ran too far ahead of Harris for Brown in Ohio. It does mean the GOP will almost certainly hold the Senate for the next four years. Highly controversial judges are unlikely to get through on this margin, but Trump should have quite a free hand. We'll have to see what happens with the filibusterer.
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,769
|
Post by mboy on Nov 10, 2024 8:57:46 GMT
Democrats should be genuinely thankful that the GOP keeps selecting clowns for Senate marginals.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 9:12:02 GMT
This was an excellent Democratic hold. A 1,000 vote win in 2022. A rematch of the last election. Albeit a Democratic gerrymander happening here. You'd have thought Republicans would win. Trump made gains with Hispanic vote. He also carried this Congressional District.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 10, 2024 9:24:39 GMT
Also extraodinary how close the actual number of votes are to each other |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2024 9:28:17 GMT
The Republicans can't catch a break when it comes to North Carolina gubernatorial elections. They've won thrice - 1972, 1988, and 2012 - since 1872.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 10, 2024 10:22:32 GMT
This was an excellent Democratic hold. A 1,000 vote win in 2022. A rematch of the last election. Albeit a Democratic gerrymander happening here. You'd have thought Republicans would win. Trump made gains with Hispanic vote. He also carried this Congressional District. New Mexico is one of the so-called majority minority states with a minority white population. Democrats held it because they're strong here but Trump made inroads in the hispanic vote. |
|
