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Post by frankyank on Jan 28, 2023 14:47:16 GMT
Is McDaniel (nee Romney) the only prominent hereditary Republican to go all Trump? I'm struggling to think of another dynast in the party who's a big fan. Ms Huckabee Sanders could count. Sauntered into a governorship with Trump’s endorsement, delaying local rising star Attorney General (now Lieutenant Governor) Rutledge’s ascension.
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 30, 2023 6:10:25 GMT
Schiff beats Katie Porter's $1 million in the first 24 hours
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 30, 2023 16:14:44 GMT
This week's Decision Desk email has a very interesting deep dive into the FEC filings of our old friend George Santos, involving lots of spending $199.99 so it didn't trigger reporting requirements that come in at $200, and the fact that many top donors to his 2020 campaign don't appear to exist.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,525
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 30, 2023 18:47:06 GMT
How on Earth did nobody notice that this guy was a crook before?
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 30, 2023 20:33:53 GMT
How on Earth did nobody notice that this guy was a crook before? I think this is a common reaction to con men. But they succeed because they half convince themselves of their untruths, and therefore come over as sincere. (Experiments show people are absolutely terrible at judging others, despite believing they are good at it). Santos (if that is his name) has succeeded because he is a total fantasist, inventing so many alternative truths that it is doubtful even he knows who he is. Of course the Republican Party indulging him is a sign of how bankrupt that organization has become. Take the money out of American politics, and they would have to return to reality.
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Post by stb12 on Jan 30, 2023 20:50:24 GMT
How on Earth did nobody notice that this guy was a crook before? I think this is a common reaction to con men. But they succeed because they half convince themselves of their untruths, and therefore come over as sincere. (Experiments show people are absolutely terrible at judging others, despite believing they are good at it). Santos (if that is his name) has succeeded because he is a total fantasist, inventing so many alternative truths that it is doubtful even he knows who he is. Of course the Republican Party indulging him is a sign of how bankrupt that organization has become. Take the money out of American politics, and they would have to return to reality. I don’t disagree with the general point but I’d say it likely also has a lot to do with them winning a far slimmer majority than expected
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 30, 2023 20:58:30 GMT
Why Dems won Ohio's most competitive House seats.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jan 30, 2023 23:27:18 GMT
Why Dems won Ohio's most competitive House seats. Jesus wept, how the feck can you do a supposed serious analysis of OH-09 and barely mention Kaptur's enormous strengths as a candidate? If you were coming up with a fantasy Democrat candidate for this district you want an old school blue collar type, plain speaking, willing to criticise their own party from time to time, economically populist, deep links to organised labour, moderately social conservative, more comfortable dealing with ordinary people than political/media types, a strong local profile built through countless small events. Then you would realise that the 40 year incumbent ticks all the boxes. If the national Democratic party was more like Kaptur then Ohio would still be a swing state and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would all be much safer in the blue column.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 31, 2023 7:29:21 GMT
Why Dems won Ohio's most competitive House seats. Jesus wept, how the feck can you do a supposed serious analysis of OH-09 and barely mention Kaptur's enormous strengths as a candidate? If you were coming up with a fantasy Democrat candidate for this district you want an old school blue collar type, plain speaking, willing to criticise their own party from time to time, economically populist, deep links to organised labour, moderately social conservative, more comfortable dealing with ordinary people than political/media types, a strong local profile built through countless small events. Then you would realise that the 40 year incumbent ticks all the boxes. If the national Democratic party was more like Kaptur then Ohio would still be a swing state and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would all be much safer in the blue column. And yet prior to the Republican primary not a single independent analyst gave Kaptur anything better than a Leans Republican rating such was the partisan gerrymander of her District.
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 31, 2023 9:16:36 GMT
Jesus wept, how the feck can you do a supposed serious analysis of OH-09 and barely mention Kaptur's enormous strengths as a candidate? If you were coming up with a fantasy Democrat candidate for this district you want an old school blue collar type, plain speaking, willing to criticise their own party from time to time, economically populist, deep links to organised labour, moderately social conservative, more comfortable dealing with ordinary people than political/media types, a strong local profile built through countless small events. Then you would realise that the 40 year incumbent ticks all the boxes. If the national Democratic party was more like Kaptur then Ohio would still be a swing state and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would all be much safer in the blue column. And yet prior to the Republican primary not a single independent analyst gave Kaptur anything better than a Leans Republican rating such was the partisan gerrymander of her District. Majewski might run again, meaning Democrats may hold the seat in 2024 regardless of whether Marcy Kaptur runs
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 31, 2023 9:20:32 GMT
Why Dems won Ohio's most competitive House seats. If the national Democratic party was more like Kaptur then Ohio would still be a swing state and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would all be much safer in the blue column. Medicare for All supporter Jared Golden also did well in Maine's 2nd Congressional District which backed Trump.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jan 31, 2023 16:48:55 GMT
Jesus wept, how the feck can you do a supposed serious analysis of OH-09 and barely mention Kaptur's enormous strengths as a candidate? If you were coming up with a fantasy Democrat candidate for this district you want an old school blue collar type, plain speaking, willing to criticise their own party from time to time, economically populist, deep links to organised labour, moderately social conservative, more comfortable dealing with ordinary people than political/media types, a strong local profile built through countless small events. Then you would realise that the 40 year incumbent ticks all the boxes. If the national Democratic party was more like Kaptur then Ohio would still be a swing state and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would all be much safer in the blue column. And yet prior to the Republican primary not a single independent analyst gave Kaptur anything better than a Leans Republican rating such was the partisan gerrymander of her District. Making stuff up again in the hope that nobody knows better Timmy boy? Well bad luck The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Politico all had this as a toss up prior to the primary. Here is a wikipedia page from 2nd May 2022 (the day before the primary) en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio&oldid=1085879170#District_9Also the actual 22nd April report from Insider Elections www.insideelections.com/ratings/house/2022-house-ratings-april-22-2022
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Post by stb12 on Jan 31, 2023 17:01:38 GMT
If the national Democratic party was more like Kaptur then Ohio would still be a swing state and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would all be much safer in the blue column. Medicare for All supporter Jared Golden also did well in Maine's 2nd Congressional District which backed Trump. Golden is also pro-gun amongst other things, so he’s certainly a very independent representative who can appeal to all sides
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 1, 2023 5:39:55 GMT
Republicans got within a point of winning the Nevada Senate race in 2022, but they face an uphill climb in the Silver State in 2024 given Jacky Rosen's large war chest
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 1, 2023 13:45:24 GMT
I think this is a common reaction to con men. But they succeed because they half convince themselves of their untruths, and therefore come over as sincere. (Experiments show people are absolutely terrible at judging others, despite believing they are good at it). Santos (if that is his name) has succeeded because he is a total fantasist, inventing so many alternative truths that it is doubtful even he knows who he is. Of course the Republican Party indulging him is a sign of how bankrupt that organization has become. Take the money out of American politics, and they would have to return to reality. I don’t disagree with the general point but I’d say it likely also has a lot to do with them winning a far slimmer majority than expected Even then, they are surely better off taking the possible hit in this instance - especially if you think he will sooner or later be forced out anyway.
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Post by rockefeller on Feb 1, 2023 19:17:48 GMT
Lol
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Feb 2, 2023 1:18:52 GMT
There is an error on the map as it only adds up to 583 districts. There are a couple of subjective calls here but going by it I get Blue states +60 Red states + 63 Purple states + 25 (AZ, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA and WI)
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,625
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 2, 2023 8:42:07 GMT
There is an error on the map as it only adds up to 583 districts. There are a couple of subjective calls here but going by it I get Blue states +60 Red states + 63 Purple states + 25 (AZ, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA and WI) It's an interesting debate. The size of congressional districts have gone from 30,000 in 1790 to 750,000 today. Congress always increased in slze slower than the population until 1929 when it was fixed at 435. There's always going to be a problem with any assembly balancing the size of the districts with the size of the assembly. You certainly don't want to preserve 30,000-population districts, that would give 11,000+ seats! The cube-root rule would give about 700 seats. I don't know what the best answer would be, particularly in an environment of a federal system with the federation fighting to centralise as much power and functionality as possible.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Feb 2, 2023 16:07:34 GMT
There is an error on the map as it only adds up to 583 districts. There are a couple of subjective calls here but going by it I get Blue states +60 Red states + 63 Purple states + 25 (AZ, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA and WI) It's an interesting debate. The size of congressional districts have gone from 30,000 in 1790 to 750,000 today. Congress always increased in slze slower than the population until 1929 when it was fixed at 435. There's always going to be a problem with any assembly balancing the size of the districts with the size of the assembly. You certainly don't want to preserve 30,000-population districts, that would give 11,000+ seats! The cube-root rule would give about 700 seats. I don't know what the best answer would be, particularly in an environment of a federal system with the federation fighting to centralise as much power and functionality as possible. I assume that this bill was based on the Wyoming Rule or something close to it. The idea being to make the the ratio of people to districts equal to that of the smallest state.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 2, 2023 16:30:02 GMT
It's an interesting debate. The size of congressional districts have gone from 30,000 in 1790 to 750,000 today. Congress always increased in slze slower than the population until 1929 when it was fixed at 435. There's always going to be a problem with any assembly balancing the size of the districts with the size of the assembly. You certainly don't want to preserve 30,000-population districts, that would give 11,000+ seats! The cube-root rule would give about 700 seats. I don't know what the best answer would be, particularly in an environment of a federal system with the federation fighting to centralise as much power and functionality as possible. There was a proposed amendment to the Constitution that would have managed the growth in the House size until it reached "not be less than two hundred Representatives, nor more than one Representative for every fifty thousand persons". Unfortunately this would not have been much use in the long term (and in the short term had a mathematical discrepancy that would have made any House size unconstitutional) - had it passed then the House could now be any size between 200 and 6,638. The inevitable question with any big change to the House numbers - which recent Presidential elections would this have altered? ISTR in 2000 there was a round of blaming the Progressive era Congress for Bush beating Gore though I don't know how accurate this was.
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