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Post by adlai52 on Jan 26, 2023 15:51:14 GMT
Adam Schiff confirms that he’s running for what is currently Dianne Feinstein’s California Senate seat. With Schiff, Lee and Porter all running the bar for a Republican to make the final round must be pretty low now?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 26, 2023 16:03:46 GMT
Adam Schiff confirms that he’s running for what is currently Dianne Feinstein’s California Senate seat. With Schiff, Lee and Porter all running the bar for a Republican to make the final round must be pretty low now? Possibly not, I’d be mildly surprised if Lee stays in, but even so a Republican is likely to be heavily outspent and will have to self fund as I can’t see outside GOP groups getting involved in such an expensive State.
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 26, 2023 20:26:45 GMT
Republicans cracking another Democratic urban area in redistricting. Nashville has GOP representation in the House for the first time since 1875. By the end of the 2020s, the new Tennessee's 5th is probably competitive
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Post by aargauer on Jan 27, 2023 10:21:13 GMT
Republicans handily won the popular vote and had a tiny majority. Fancy showing where the democrat boundary is unfair?
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jan 27, 2023 11:31:07 GMT
Republicans handily won the popular vote and had a tiny majority. Fancy showing where the democrat boundary is unfair? Numerous states have egregious maps but overall they largely seemed to have balanced one another out.
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 27, 2023 12:04:19 GMT
Republicans handily won the popular vote and had a tiny majority. Fancy showing where the democrat boundary is unfair? I believe I reported on the results in the gerrymandered New Mexico's 2nd District at the time. There's also llinois, where Democrats cracked Cook County (Chicago) and the result was Republicans only won three seats!
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 27, 2023 12:05:37 GMT
Republicans handily won the popular vote and had a tiny majority. Fancy showing where the democrat boundary is unfair? In general, Democrats outperformed this time due to overperformances in competitive districts rather than their own gerrymanders. They only fully controlled redistricting in: Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon and Rhode Island Of those, Massachusetts and Rhode Island would have returned full Dem delegations under fair maps anyway (In Rhode Island the Democrats seem to have contrived to draw a *more* competitive map than a commission would likely have come up with), while Oregon is a moderate gerrymander where Republicans took one of the seats anyway, leading to the same delegation that a 'fair' map would probably have produced. Nevada is also a mild Dem gerrymander, and may have saved a seat, or may not have made a difference, hard to tell. The Democrats certainly picked up one seat in both Maryland and New Mexico. Which leaves Illinois as the only strongly gerrymandered state. Dems probably picked up 2 or 3 seats thanks to gerrymandering.
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 27, 2023 12:15:40 GMT
There are also a lot of blue states with independent redistricting commissions like California and Michigan.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 27, 2023 16:27:41 GMT
If you also look at the turnout by State the Republicans almost mirrored Democrats in 2020 - Alabama, without a competitive race saw massive Republican turnout, but their turnout in Michigan, with numerous competitive races , saw lower GOP turnout than in the 2020 midterms, so, as Andrew begins his Previews, they were getting the all the right votes bit not necessarily in the right places.
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 27, 2023 18:49:19 GMT
Ruben Gallego raised $1 million in the first 24 hours of his campaign for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jan 27, 2023 20:47:05 GMT
Nevada is also a mild Dem gerrymander, and may have saved a seat, or may not have made a difference, hard to tell. The Democrats certainly picked up one seat in both Maryland and New Mexico. I don't think there is much doubt about Nevada. Susie Lee would have lost the 3rd district under the old lines and Steven Horsford might well have lost the 4th. The Democrats gambled massively by cracking Las Vegas to make three districts of near equal strength. Had things gone wrong they could easily have lost all three, and could well do so later this decade, but this time round it worked out incredibly well for them with majorities of roughly 10K, 11K and 12.5K
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Post by rockefeller on Jan 27, 2023 21:10:00 GMT
Republican National Committee Chair election results
Ronna McDaniel 111 Harmeet Dhillon 51 Mike Lindell 4 Lee Zeldin 1*
First contested race since 2013.
*didn't actually run for the position.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 27, 2023 21:12:53 GMT
Republican National Committee Chair election results Ronna McDaniel 111 Harmeet Dhillon 51 Mike Lindell 4 Lee Zeldin 1* First contested race since 2013 *didn't actually run for the position. Wasn't a very friendly campaign judging by this.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jan 27, 2023 21:23:33 GMT
Another big success for the Democrats was North Carolina which previously had an 8-5 GOP delegation. It got an extra seat this time and the GOP legislature drew a map that would have been 10-4 or 11-3 (the Governor cannot veto redistricting bills). The map was however struck down by the North Carolina Supreme Court and the resulting court drawn map resulted in a 7-7 split.
Unfortunately for the Democrats the court drawn map was only for the 2022 elections and the legislature will now have another go at drawing maps. Crucially the GOP flipped control of the Supreme Court in November so this time the legislature will likely get their way.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 27, 2023 21:28:55 GMT
Another big success for the Democrats was North Carolina which previously had an 8-5 GOP delegation. It got an extra seat this time and the GOP legislature drew a map that would have been 10-4 or 11-3 (the Governor cannot veto redistricting bills). The map was however struck down by the North Carolina Supreme Court and the resulting court drawn map resulted in a 7-7 split. Unfortunately for the Democrats the court drawn map was only for the 2022 elections and the legislature will now have another go at drawing maps. Crucially the GOP flipped control of the Supreme Court in November so this time the legislature will likely get their way. There’s a separate case pending before the Supreme Court which, in oral arguments last year seemed more than dubious about the new maps - Gorsuch, Barrett and Roberts all gave the NC Attorney General a rough time, and Kavanaugh was described as openly shaking his head at some of the the AG’s arguments.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jan 27, 2023 21:48:33 GMT
Another big success for the Democrats was North Carolina which previously had an 8-5 GOP delegation. It got an extra seat this time and the GOP legislature drew a map that would have been 10-4 or 11-3 (the Governor cannot veto redistricting bills). The map was however struck down by the North Carolina Supreme Court and the resulting court drawn map resulted in a 7-7 split. Unfortunately for the Democrats the court drawn map was only for the 2022 elections and the legislature will now have another go at drawing maps. Crucially the GOP flipped control of the Supreme Court in November so this time the legislature will likely get their way. There’s a separate case pending before the Supreme Court which, in oral arguments last year seemed more than dubious about the new maps - Gorsuch, Barrett and Roberts all gave the NC Attorney General a rough time, and Kavanaugh was described as openly shaking his head at some of the the AG’s arguments. The case, Moore v Harper, is based on the "Independent State Legislature theory" which contends that the constitution grants state legislatures exclusive authority to regulate federal elections within their state and that governors, state courts and even state constitutions have no role. It is a fringe theory that will be laughed out of court. I suppose that Thomas or Alito might just embarrass themselves by dissenting but I doubt it.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 28, 2023 0:31:07 GMT
Republican National Committee Chair election results Ronna McDaniel 111 Harmeet Dhillon 51 Mike Lindell 4 Lee Zeldin 1* First contested race since 2013. *didn't actually run for the position. That's a win for Trump and a defeat for DeSantis.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 28, 2023 8:33:06 GMT
Republican National Committee Chair election results Ronna McDaniel 111 Harmeet Dhillon 51 Mike Lindell 4 Lee Zeldin 1* First contested race since 2013. *didn't actually run for the position. That's a win for Trump and a defeat for DeSantis. People who know DeSantis, loathe DeSantis
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 28, 2023 11:29:37 GMT
Is McDaniel (nee Romney) the only prominent hereditary Republican to go all Trump? I'm struggling to think of another dynast in the party who's a big fan.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 28, 2023 11:42:47 GMT
Is McDaniel (nee Romney) the only prominent hereditary Republican to go all Trump? I'm struggling to think of another dynast in the party who's a big fan. George P Bush, son of Jeb Bush, former Texas Land Commissioner, who supported ousting Liz Cheney as House Conference Chair, supported Trump's re-election and ignored his family in his election literature, for which loyalty, Trump supported the sitting Texas Attorney-General, the scandal-plagued, Ken Paxton. Paxton won the GOP primary and re-election.
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