johng
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Post by johng on Dec 13, 2020 15:51:02 GMT
I would hope that a couple of the better pollsters are going to try and poll the Georgia run offs, although I understand their reluctance to do so. Obviously polling over XMAS and/or New Year s problematic so if they are going to do so it will probably be in the next week or so. Who were you hoping for? There've been a few decent polls already. The three below in particular are from good pollsters and were commissioned by independent outlets. I imagine Fox 5 will have another poll out soon from InsiderAdvantage. Landmark who polled for WSB-TV (ABC) got very decent results in their pre-November election polls so hopefully they will poll this race too.
Fabrizio Ward+Hart Research/ AARP (11/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +1 SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (2/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 13, 2020 16:13:38 GMT
I am not sure how relevant polling is going to be in these elections.
It will come down to who gets their vote out. Traditionally the runoffs have favoured the Republicans in Georgia. Many Democrats will think they have done their job and put Biden in the White House and may not turn out. Also those who believe in divided government will want to avoid two Democrat gains.
On the other hand one tweet from Trump could lose the elections for the GOP as his claims of corruption have made his supporters sceptical of the voting process.
The other factor is the way in which the Georgia Officials have been abused by Trump with the apparent acceptance of the two candidates will not exactly motivate them to do much in the campaign.
It’s all very difficult to call.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 13, 2020 17:04:25 GMT
I am not sure how relevant polling is going to be in these elections. It will come down to who gets their vote out. Traditionally the runoffs have favoured the Republicans in Georgia. Many Democrats will think they have done their job and put Biden in the White House and may not turn out. Also those who believe in divided government will want to avoid two Democrat gains. On the other hand one tweet from Trump could lose the elections for the GOP as his claims of corruption have made his supporters sceptical of the voting process. The other factor is the way in which the Georgia Officials have been abused by Trump with the apparent acceptance of the two candidates will not exactly motivate them to do much in the campaign. It’s all very difficult to call. I’d pay more attention to the partisan breakdown of early voting, particularly by mail, which starts tomorrow; if the Democrats are beating the GOP they have a chance of cushioning themselves against on the day turnout.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2020 19:32:42 GMT
A few thoughts.
Biden is still in his honeymoon so wins for the Dems wouldn't be too surprising
Warnock could generate the same level of (or higher) Black turnout as Stacey Abrams and Biden-Harris.
Georgia could be going the same way as Virginia if suburban trends hold: Biden got nearly 60% in counties that hadn't voted Democratic for decades before 2016
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 14, 2020 17:57:30 GMT
IPEV starts today in Georgia.
Interesting thread from Nate Cohn on registrations. Basically, they don't tell us much and they are fairly comparable to the November election.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 15, 2020 2:32:40 GMT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 15, 2020 13:12:11 GMT
Did she have any real choice about posing with McDonnell though, given he's her leader?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 15, 2020 13:17:31 GMT
Did she have any real choice about posing with McDonnell though, given he's her leader? That’s what I find really depressing about the Trump era is that once pragmatic Republicans such as Lindsay Graham and to an extent Mitch McConnell have turned into complete lunatics.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 15, 2020 13:25:29 GMT
Did she have any real choice about posing with McDonnell though, given he's her leader? That’s what I find really depressing about the Trump era is that once pragmatic Republicans such as Lindsay Graham and to an extent Mitch McConnell have turned into complete lunatics. Yes. One thing I've taken from this is that Romney has come out of all this very strong, after voting to impeach Trump. Other Senators, not so much.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 15, 2020 17:40:16 GMT
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger clearly isn't willing to be used as a punching bag
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Post by matureleft on Dec 16, 2020 7:37:52 GMT
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger clearly isn't willing to be used as a punching bag The guy comes across (he gave quite a personal interview a while back) as a man of some integrity and strength. One wonders why he sought this role.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 16, 2020 8:26:14 GMT
The guy comes across (he gave quite a personal interview a while back) as a man of some integrity and strength. One wonders why he sought this role. He is a civil engineer and a successful businessman* who didn't enter politics until his mid 50s and at first only ran for a seat on Johns Creek City Council (north Atlanta burbs). While anybody running for public office has some degree of ambition this career path suggests that the concept of public service is not alien to him. Also he seems to be very much a classic pro-business, fiscal conservative, good governance Republican who has little interest in culture war politics. I suspect his interest in running for Secretary of State lay more in the business registration and licensing part of the office rather than the election supervision side. * Founder / owner of a midsize business of the scale that would have likely required heavy personal involvement.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 16, 2020 13:05:26 GMT
Fox 5 / Insider Advantage
Perdue: 49 Ossoff: 48
Loeffler: 49 Warnock: 48
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 16, 2020 13:20:53 GMT
Fox 5 / Insider Advantage Perdue: 49 Ossoff: 48 Loeffler: 49 Warnock: 48 That's Perdue flat, Ossoff -1, Loeffler +1 and Warnock -1 on their November 16th poll. Very much MOE stuff and still far too lose to call.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 16, 2020 16:48:27 GMT
Four districts in California split their vote, going for Biden at Presidential level while electing Republicans to congress. In three of them Biden won by 10 points.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 16, 2020 16:57:14 GMT
The 21st, 25th and 39th are the most embarrassing given Clinton won them comfortably as well. Very much recruiting failure for Democrats in all 3.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 16, 2020 17:16:08 GMT
If I lived in California I sure has hell wouldn't be voting Democrat locally. (Doubt I'd vote GOP either as they're utterly mental nearly everywhere right now.)
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 16, 2020 17:24:31 GMT
The 21st, 25th and 39th are the most embarrassing given Clinton won them comfortably as well. Very much recruiting failure for Democrats in all 3. Two are them were incumbents. It was more a case of some genuinely good GOP recruits as opposed to bad Democratic ones.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2020 17:27:38 GMT
The 21st, 25th and 39th are the most embarrassing given Clinton won them comfortably as well. Very much recruiting failure for Democrats in all 3. Hardly, the 25th was poor recruiting in 2018 when the Democrats won it narrowly with a candidate who was having an affair with a barely legal age intern; the GOP won the special election, but Christy Smith closed an 18,000 defeat to a 333 vote defeat against a pretty good local Republican recruit. In the 21st David Valadao barely lost to TJ Cox in 2018, was on the “never Trump” wing of the GOP, and crept past Cox by a little over 1400 votes. In the 39th Gil Cisneros was always felt to be struggling when Young Kim, a South Korean emigre made the top two in the most heavily Korean District in America. The three Districts are all very traditional Republican strongholds, were held by the GOP in 2016 despite Clinton winning the Districts, and are prime examples of areas where there’s a strong anti Trump vote amongst Republicans who are prepared to ticket split. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections had the 21st and 25th as Toss Up and put Cisneros as Likely Democratic based on his exceptional fundraising, but Cook has conceded they underestimated the inter-community appeal of Kim.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 16, 2020 17:55:55 GMT
By ‘recruiting failures’ I was including the 2 incumbents elected in 2018. Smith and Cisneros were never viewed as very good candidates. Cox was drafted in to the 21st district at the last minute after campaigning in another as there was no other candidate. He had no appeal in the heavily Hispanic 21st and had scandals once actually in Congress. The 21st is not a Republican stronghold, it’s much more Democratic at every level unlike the others but Democrats failed to put up credible candidates for Congress. If Republicans are actually able to nominate candidates that appeal to voters in these districts, then so should Democrats.
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