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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 16, 2020 18:13:59 GMT
The 21st, 25th and 39th are the most embarrassing given Clinton won them comfortably as well. Very much recruiting failure for Democrats in all 3. Hardly, the 25th was poor recruiting in 2018 when the Democrats won it narrowly with a candidate who was having an affair with a barely legal age intern; the GOP won the special election, but Christy Smith closed an 18,000 defeat to a 333 vote defeat against a pretty good local Republican recruit. In the 21st David Valadao barely lost to TJ Cox in 2018, was on the “never Trump” wing of the GOP, and crept past Cox by a little over 1400 votes. In the 39th Gil Cisneros was always felt to be struggling when Young Kim, a South Korean emigre made the top two in the most heavily Korean District in America. The three Districts are all very traditional Republican strongholds, were held by the GOP in 2016 despite Clinton winning the Districts, and are prime examples of areas where there’s a strong anti Trump vote amongst Republicans who are prepared to ticket split. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections had the 21st and 25th as Toss Up and put Cisneros as Likely Democratic based on his exceptional fundraising, but Cook has conceded they underestimated the inter-community appeal of Kim. Valadao actually endorsed Trump this cycle.. primarily due to his pledge to increase water supply for agriculture in the Central Valley.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2020 18:46:18 GMT
Nina Turner is running for Marcia's Fudge's Congressional District in Ohio, as per FEC filing.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 16, 2020 18:55:12 GMT
Hardly, the 25th was poor recruiting in 2018 when the Democrats won it narrowly with a candidate who was having an affair with a barely legal age intern; the GOP won the special election, but Christy Smith closed an 18,000 defeat to a 333 vote defeat against a pretty good local Republican recruit. In the 21st David Valadao barely lost to TJ Cox in 2018, was on the “never Trump” wing of the GOP, and crept past Cox by a little over 1400 votes. In the 39th Gil Cisneros was always felt to be struggling when Young Kim, a South Korean emigre made the top two in the most heavily Korean District in America. The three Districts are all very traditional Republican strongholds, were held by the GOP in 2016 despite Clinton winning the Districts, and are prime examples of areas where there’s a strong anti Trump vote amongst Republicans who are prepared to ticket split. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections had the 21st and 25th as Toss Up and put Cisneros as Likely Democratic based on his exceptional fundraising, but Cook has conceded they underestimated the inter-community appeal of Kim. Valadao actually endorsed Trump this cycle.. primarily due to his pledge to increase water supply for agriculture in the Central Valley. Yes, hence the “was on the never Trump” rather than the “is on the never Trump”, although it was pointed out in one of the previews of the election that the endorsement was purely local based on Trump including a water desalination plant in the District in one of his spending requests.
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 16, 2020 18:58:49 GMT
Nina Turner is running for Marcia's Fudge's Congressional District in Ohio, as per FEC filing. Is that because she's Simply The Best candidate
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 16, 2020 21:13:47 GMT
Despite the chat about ticket splitting in favour of Congressional Rs, it was at an all time low. Only 16 or 17 districts (depending on NY-22) will have split their tickets. There were 35 split districts even in 2016.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 17, 2020 1:02:37 GMT
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mboy
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Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Dec 17, 2020 8:43:39 GMT
These new voters, they are to be treated as, different...but equal.
Maybe count them as 3/5 of a vote?
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Post by matureleft on Dec 17, 2020 9:05:39 GMT
It'll be interesting to see how Raffensperger and his team handle this election. They'll be under tremendous pressure and he's already indicated some irritation with his own side. But he is a conservative Republican who must wish for a Senate majority. If close (as seems very likely) activists and their lawyers will be all over them. Clearly the Democrats have put in a shift on registration and on those who failed to vote last month, and output from those initiatives will be given thorough examination. And signature verification/"curing" will be subject to sharp scrutiny. Good luck guys!
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 17, 2020 11:10:58 GMT
Emerson College poll of Georgia. They released a lot of eve of election polls. Some of them were decent and some horrendous. Their final poll before the November election was Trummp +1 and Ossoff +1 so not tooooo bad.
Perdue - 51% Ossoff - 49%
Loeffler - 51% Warnock - 49%
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 17, 2020 12:33:39 GMT
Regardless of the polls I retain the belief that both run offs are lean GOP if not likely GOP. The vote for a GOP Senate to keep Biden in check works for both the GOP base and for swing voters.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 17, 2020 21:28:37 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 18, 2020 18:21:45 GMT
NY-22 update
Cortland, Broome, Herkimer, Madison, Oswego and Tioga counties have completed their re-canvass.
Broome County reported 1 extra vote for Tenney and 3 extra votes for Brindisi. Oswego County reported 1 extra vote for Tenney. The others reported no change. Tenney's lead is 11 votes as things stand. We are still waiting for updates from Oneida and Chenango counties. The former is the largest county in the district while the latter is where 67 additional ballots have been found.
Regardless of whether Oneida and Chenago finish today it looks like Justice DelConte will be able to begin his review of disputed ballots on Monday as planned.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 19, 2020 1:07:30 GMT
Further NY-22 update.
Chenango County have completed their recanvas and have counted 46 additional ballots giving an extra 25 votes for Tenney and 17 for Brindisi (4 had no vote for Congress). Therefore Tenney's lead now stands at 19 votes.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 21, 2020 14:14:17 GMT
A couple more Georgia polls which all look good for the GOP. Trafalgar (17/12) have Perdue +3 and Loeffler +7, and Wick (16/12) have Perdue +4 and Loeffler +3. Wick don't have a 538 rating and their previous polls seem to lean quite GOP.
Though if, as this suggests, black turnout share is higher, then it would be a relatively good sign for the Dems.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 21, 2020 14:22:50 GMT
Early voting patterns in Georgia are obviously impacted by XMAS/New Year. I would caution, as Nate Cohn has, against reading all that much in to them.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 21, 2020 14:53:40 GMT
A couple more Georgia polls which all look good for the GOP. Trafalgar (17/12) have Perdue +3 and Loeffler +7, and Wick (16/12) have Perdue +4 and Loeffler +3. Wick don't have a 538 rating and their previous polls seem to lean quite GOP. Though if, as this suggests, black turnout share is higher, then it would be a relatively good sign for the Dems. Wick’s only other apparent foray into 2020 polling doesn’t inspire confidence: link.medium.com/sKjSkWNQocb
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 21, 2020 23:55:53 GMT
NY-22 update.
It now seems certain that the result won't be certified by the time the 117th Congress convenes on 3rd January. Justice DelConte had hoped to get things done in time but Oneida County have not completed the court ordered recanvas and have today informed the court that they won't do so until next week. Justice DelConte has begun reviewing disputed ballots from the other 7 counties but has said he won't issue rulings on them until he has reviewed the disputed ballots from all 8 counties. Also he still seems unhappy with some of the information being provided by some of the county board of elections. He also had a very testy exchange with Brindisi's lawyer.
EDIT: Oneida County has around 1,500 disputed ballots, well over half of the ones that need reviewing. DelConte plans to review them in the first week of January, assuming that the recanvas is done by then.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 22, 2020 1:08:17 GMT
I was watching coverage of the Georgia Senate run-offs on CNN. I was amazed to see a Republican candidate being shouted down by Trump supporters at a campaign rally with cries of ‘Stop the Steal’.
It is now getting really weird.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 22, 2020 14:27:49 GMT
Quick Georgia polling update. What a mix of figures (14 point spread in the special election :@). Too close to call and advantage still with the GOP. Non-partisan polls: SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (22/12): Ossoff +5 (+3) / Warnock +7 (-) (Changes 2/12).
RMG/ PoliticalIQ (21/12): Ossoff +2 (+1) / Warnock +1 (-1) (Changes 3/12).
Emerson College (15/12): Perdue +2 / Loeffler +2. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (14/12): Perdue +1 (+1) / Loeffler +1 (+2) (Changes 16/11).
Fabrizio Ward+Hart Research/ AARP (11/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +1. RMG/ PoliticalIQ (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Warnock +2. SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (2/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1. Non-partisan polls with definite bias and no clear sponsor: Traflagar (17/12): Perdue +3 (+3) / Loeffler +7 (+4) (Changes 12/12).
Wick (16/12): Perdue +4 / Loeffler +3.
Trafalgar (12/12): Even / Loeffler +3. DFP (6/12): Perdue +2 / Warnock +3. Trafalgar (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Loeffler +5.
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Post by grahammurray on Dec 22, 2020 14:57:35 GMT
Quick Georgia polling update. What a mix of figures (14 point spread in the special election :@). Too close to call and advantage still with the GOP. Non-partisan polls: SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (22/12): Ossoff +5 (+3) / Warnock +7 (-) (Changes 2/12).
RMG/ PoliticalIQ (21/12): Ossoff +2 (+1) / Warnock +1 (-1) (Changes 3/12).
Emerson College (15/12): Perdue +2 / Loeffler +2. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (14/12): Perdue +1 (+1) / Loeffler +1 (+2) (Changes 16/11).
Fabrizio Ward+Hart Research/ AARP (11/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +1. RMG/ PoliticalIQ (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Warnock +2. SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (2/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1. Non-partisan polls with definite bias and no clear sponsor: Traflagar (17/12): Perdue +3 (+3) / Loeffler +7 (+4) (Changes 12/12).
Wick (16/12): Perdue +4 / Loeffler +3.
Trafalgar (12/12): Even / Loeffler +3. DFP (6/12): Perdue +2 / Warnock +3. Trafalgar (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Loeffler +5. It must be relevant to polling methodology that, with a couple of exceptions, the GOP are ahead in each pair or behind in both.
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