timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 9, 2020 14:50:23 GMT
NC Senate 2022 primary poll. Lara Trump and former (defeated) governor in the lead. No idea who the others are. Walker and Holding are the two Congressmen who were put into heavily Democratic Districts by court ordered redistricting and didn’t run in November. Moore is Speaker of the State House of Representatives.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 9, 2020 14:58:29 GMT
Yang would be an interesting choice... Yang would be a great choice! But AOC and co would explode if he got the nomination. He's the wrong kind of brown...
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 9, 2020 15:01:19 GMT
More popcorn please!
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 9, 2020 15:27:15 GMT
The recriminations in the Georgia GOP are going to be awful in the years to come. The excuse that it was "only politics" won't wash given the appalling threats many GOP officials have received and the attacks from Donald Trump himself. Senators Perdue and, especially, Governor Kemp-appointed Kelly Loeffler, are heading for lives of social ostracism in the power circles of the state
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 9, 2020 15:48:24 GMT
Let's hope so.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 9, 2020 15:58:07 GMT
NC Senate 2022 primary poll. Lara Trump and former (defeated) governor in the lead. No idea who the others are. Why does ‘someone else’ appear twice on the list?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 9, 2020 15:59:55 GMT
NC Senate 2022 primary poll. Lara Trump and former (defeated) governor in the lead. No idea who the others are. Why does ‘someone else’ appear twice on the list? They’re identical twins...
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 11, 2020 18:27:48 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 11, 2020 18:28:22 GMT
keep triplicating those ballots guys
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 12, 2020 0:24:06 GMT
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research haven't polled together for some time, so it's a little difficult to tell how good their results were. They are two top pollsters though Hart being a Dem pollster and Fabrizio a GOP pollster. Their last set of polls were released in early September. TBH, the headline figures do look pretty decent in relation to the actual results.
On the poll, another set of numbers putting this race in toss-up territory. Though, for the Dems, if you look under the hood, it actually seems like a pretty GOP friendly sample. For the GOP, Loeffler isn't running notably behind Perdue in any metric like some though she could.
GA Polling. Non-partisan (*though some have a definite bias*) polls: Fabrizio Ward+Hart Research/ AARP (11/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +1 DFP* (6/12): Perdue +2 / Warnock +3. Trafalgar* (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Loeffler +5. RMG/ PoliticalIQ (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Warnock +2. SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (2/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1.
Partisan polls: VCreekAMG/ Americas PAC (17/11): - / Loeffler +4 . Remington Research Group (10/11): Perdue +4 / Loeffler +1.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 12, 2020 10:19:17 GMT
NY-22 update.
We now have a rough timeline for the recanvas and judicial review of disputed ballots. The plan is to commence the recanvas on Monday with the aim of completing it by Friday. Justice DelConte then hopes to begin reviewing disputed ballots by Monday 21st December. I suppose it is possible that he completes this in three days and then allows certification of the result but this seems unlikely/ Furthermore legal appeals seem like a distinct possibility. As New York state courts do not sit from XMAS Eve to New Years Day it looks unlikely that this case election will be resolved until mid January or even later if a full recount is ordered.
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 13, 2020 1:19:28 GMT
New Trafalgar poll for the Goeriga run-offs. Changes from their 3/12 poll.
Senate run-off. Technically Ossoff is +0.3 as Trafalgar insists on decimals.
Ossoff - 49% (+1%)
Perdue - 49% (+2%)
Senate special run-off.
Loeffler - 50% (-)
Warnock - 47% (+2)
That means we've now had...
Non-partisan polls: Fabrizio Ward+Hart Research/ AARP (11/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +1 RMG/ PoliticalIQ (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Warnock +2. SurveyUSA/ WXIA-TV Atlanta (2/12): Ossoff +2 / Warnock +7. InsiderAdvantage/ Fox 5 Atlanta (16/11): EVEN / Warnock +1.
Non-partisan polls with definite bias and no clear sponsor: Trafalgar (12/12): Even / Loeffler +3.
DFP (6/12): Perdue +2 / Warnock +3. Trafalgar (3/12): Ossoff +1 / Loeffler +5.
Partisan polls: VCreekAMG/ Americas PAC (17/11): - / Loeffler +4 . Remington Research Group (10/11): Perdue +4 / Loeffler +1.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 13, 2020 9:25:02 GMT
I would hope that a couple of the better pollsters are going to try and poll the Georgia run offs, although I understand their reluctance to do so. Obviously polling over XMAS and/or New Year s problematic so if they are going to do so it will probably be in the next week or so.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2020 9:56:08 GMT
Can someone please explain how the work of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will change with a new chair? Was Engel particularly hawkish? Or will the direction of the Committee now be based on what Biden and Harris do?
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 13, 2020 9:57:29 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 13, 2020 10:57:39 GMT
A phrase about being devoured by a monster you helped create comes to mind.....
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 13, 2020 11:16:08 GMT
Can someone please explain how the work of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will change with a new chair? Was Engel particularly hawkish? Or will the direction of the Committee now be based on what Biden and Harris do? I don’t think you’ll see a huge change, there didn’t seem to be much controversial in Engel’s tenure, and he voted “present” on the Defence Bill Conference Report this week as he said Pelosi had promised to attach the State Department Appropriations Bill which his committee had successfully passed as an Amendment, meaning it’s unlikely now to pass and will have to be renegotiated by the new Committee. Meeks is equally pro-Israel, but, unlike Engel, voted against the Iraq war. Maybe as a sign Meeks represents the status quo, the Progressive Caucus backed Joáquin Castro for the chairmanship. One thing we do know is he’ll support Biden’s efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear agreement.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 13, 2020 11:22:50 GMT
Can someone please explain how the work of the House Foreign Affairs Committee will change with a new chair? Was Engel particularly hawkish? Or will the direction of the Committee now be based on what Biden and Harris do? I don’t think you’ll see a huge change, there didn’t seem to be much controversial in Engel’s tenure, and he voted “present” on the Defence Bill Conference Report this week as he said Pelosi had promised to attach the State Department Appropriations Bill which his committee had successfully passed as an Amendment, meaning it’s unlikely now to pass and will have to be renegotiated by the new Committee. Meeks is equally pro-Israel, but, unlike Engel, voted against the Iraq war. Maybe as a sign Meeks represents the status quo, the Progressive Caucus backed Joáquin Castro for the chairmanship. One thing we do know is he’ll support Biden’s efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear agreement. Meeks is probably not as hawkish or pro-Israel as Engel. He is fairly run of the mill vaguely centrist Democrat with few overly strong views on anything. I don't think is either willing or capable of being a dominating chairman who bends the committee to his views.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 13, 2020 11:23:46 GMT
I don’t think you’ll see a huge change, there didn’t seem to be much controversial in Engel’s tenure, and he voted “present” on the Defence Bill Conference Report this week as he said Pelosi had promised to attach the State Department Appropriations Bill which his committee had successfully passed as an Amendment, meaning it’s unlikely now to pass and will have to be renegotiated by the new Committee. Meeks is equally pro-Israel, but, unlike Engel, voted against the Iraq war. Maybe as a sign Meeks represents the status quo, the Progressive Caucus backed Joáquin Castro for the chairmanship. One thing we do know is he’ll support Biden’s efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear agreement. Meeks is probably not as hawkish or pro-Israel as Engel. He is fairly run of the mill vaguely centrist Democrat with few overly strong views on anything. I don't think is either willing or capable of being a dominating chairman who bends the committee to his views. This suggests he’s very pro-Israel: www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/meeks-house-foreign-affairs-committee-chair.html
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 13, 2020 12:04:08 GMT
He is very pro-Israel, pretty much all centrist Democrats are very pro-Israel. He just isn't as pro Israel as Engel, if he was he wouldn't have supported the Iran nuclear deal.
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