The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2020 13:36:03 GMT
Depends on how both Biden and the Republicans act. There is a lesson in history here from Clinton and Gingrich between 94 and 96. Clinton compromised a lot but then finally said 'No' and had a few very clear 'red lines'. Republicans forced a shutdown, voters saw that they were the reason for it (having seen that Clinton did try and reach agreement) and punished them for it afterwards when it came to the 1996 Presidential election. The extent to which that was behind the presidential landslide is unclear (Dole's campaign was bad, voters approved of the state of the economy and Ross Perot had a credible third-party challenge affecting results. Whether the conditions are right for it to happen again is even less so. Republicans kept the House in 1996 and only had a net loss of 3 despite '94 being the Republican wave which gave them back control after decades in the minority. Not sure how true this was in 1996 as opposed to 1992, tbh. If anything his decline the second time perhaps helped the GOP slightly.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 24, 2020 13:41:49 GMT
The extent to which that was behind the presidential landslide is unclear (Dole's campaign was bad, voters approved of the state of the economy and Ross Perot had a credible third-party challenge affecting results. Whether the conditions are right for it to happen again is even less so. Republicans kept the House in 1996 and only had a net loss of 3 despite '94 being the Republican wave which gave them back control after decades in the minority. Not sure how true this was in 1996 as opposed to 1992, tbh. If anything his decline the second time perhaps helped the GOP slightly. He still got 8.4% of the vote, more than enough to make a difference at the EC level between a landslide and a very narrow win.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2020 13:45:51 GMT
Yes, but I don't think his absence from the ballot then would have made much difference.
(whilst some exaggerate when they say he handed Clinton the 1992 election, it probably would have been closer - certainly in EC terms - without him)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 24, 2020 20:44:54 GMT
Iowa’s 2nd district is currently doing its recount. It’s an open Trump 2016/2020 voting district but the Democratic candidate is a state senator who is massively outperforming in her senate district so it’s on a knife edge. Republicans initially led by 50 but Democrats now lead by 2. That’s votes, not percent. Expect a long battle over this one.
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Post by London Republic on Nov 25, 2020 1:46:31 GMT
Which is of no consequence to how the House of Representatives was constituted in 2012. It does show that voters where not particually keen on Political Deadlock, but rather it was imposed by others in 2012. And since those rules haven't changed, it may be more pertinent to analyse how voters whose votes actually determine elections in the United States (which in this case would probably be voters in Atlanta suburbs) feel about divided government to determine political messaging. Though Trende does make a somewhat convincing case that Atlanta suburban voters may be more amenable than suburban voters in other states to give Biden a trifecta, that still doesn't mean opposing divided government makes sense as a strategy throughout the United States. The reason why I want the Democrats to promote the "Political Deadlock is Bad" message (in these Georgia Senate Races) is to convince 2020 Biden Voters (that voted Republican Downballot) that the "Trump" problem also applies to the wider GOP.
Because when it comes to those split-ticketers (from my perspective) in places like the Atlanta Suburbs; they have already been convinced that Trump's brand of Conservative Right Politics is unnacceptable and that his Presidency was a disaster, however they have yet to be convinced that his brand of politics has become mainstream within the GOP and instead see him as a anomaly within the Conservative Right.
So what the Democrats need to do is remind them that his brand of Conservative Right Politics has now completely monopolised the Republican Party (as shown by the conduct and policies of both GOP Candidates in the Georgia Senate Races); in other words if those voters agree that Trump and his brand of politics are a problem, then it makes sense to also kick out the "Little Trumpers" out of power as well. Especially when they are hellbent to protect his political legacy at all costs.
Likewise I would also like to point out that according to Gallup; opposition to split control of the Federal Government has reached an all time high (1), so thats another thing to bear in mind.
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Post by London Republic on Nov 25, 2020 1:49:11 GMT
What admittedly unreliable polling and my limited anecdotal evidence suggest is that even the split-ticketers largely don't want gridlock (a recent poll had them breaking over 2:1 in favour of Republicans 'finding common ground with Biden' as opposed to keeping him in check) but naively think they'll get anything else by splitting their tickets. Compromise governance is a lot more feasible at the state and local level, but not at the federal one as long as the self-styled Grim Reaper remains at the top of the Republican Senate caucus. That has become increasingly less common at the State Level as well, mainly because of the increasing shift to the right of the various State Republican Parties alongside the National one
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 25, 2020 2:30:22 GMT
Iowa’s 2nd district is currently doing its recount. It’s an open Trump 2016/2020 voting district but the Democratic candidate is a state senator who is massively outperforming in her senate district so it’s on a knife edge. Republicans initially led by 50 but Democrats now lead by 2. That’s votes, not percent. Expect a long battle over this one. Latest update suggests no result until Saturday (for “scheduling conflicts” read “we’re getting pissed on Thanksgiving and maxing out our credit cards on Black Friday”:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 25, 2020 20:09:50 GMT
Will Brindisi survive after all?
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 25, 2020 20:24:51 GMT
Will Brindisi survive after all? Wasserman reported that Democratic and GOP sources have Brindisi ahead by 12 or 13 votes.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 25, 2020 22:53:33 GMT
Trump pardons two turkeys in one day!
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 26, 2020 2:04:58 GMT
Will Brindisi survive after all? Roughly 3,000 disputed ballots, some of which have been counted, some of which haven't, are going to be ruled on by the courts. This could take weeks to resolve.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 28, 2020 12:28:54 GMT
The Associated Press have called California 21 for Republican David Valadao who wins his rematches with TJ Cox, making nine net gains (thus far) for the GOP.
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Post by matureleft on Nov 28, 2020 12:36:03 GMT
The Associated Press have called California 21 for Republican David Valadao who wins his rematches with TJ Cox, making nine net gains (thus far) for the GOP. There's been a great deal of hesitation on that one. Last time it was called fairly early for Valadao, then eventually reversed.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 28, 2020 12:36:54 GMT
The Associated Press have called California 21 for Republican David Valadao who wins his rematches with TJ Cox, making nine net gains (thus far) for the GOP. It also looks pretty certain that Mike Garcia is going to hold CA-25 for the GOP. His lead has remained steady at about 400 as multiple batches of ballots have broken roughly 50-50. We are looking at 222-211 with IA-02 and NY-22 both up in the air. The IA-02 recount is still going on. Based on official reports from some counties and unofficial reports from other counties some sources have Rita Hart (D) up by margins of either 1 or 3 votes. Quite possible this ends up in court. In NY-22 it looks like Brindisi is up by 13 votes but potentially with a couple of thousand disputed ballots still to be counted. A state court has issued an injunction to delay certification while the disputed ballots fiasco us resolved. The next court hearing is Monday. However with more ballots likely to be counted Brindisi is probably now favoured.
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Post by adlai52 on Nov 28, 2020 14:21:52 GMT
The Associated Press have called California 21 for Republican David Valadao who wins his rematches with TJ Cox, making nine net gains (thus far) for the GOP. It also looks pretty certain that Mike Garcia is going to hold CA-25 for the GOP. His lead has remained steady at about 400 as multiple batches of ballots have broken roughly 50-50. We are looking at 222-211 with IA-02 and NY-22 both up in the air. The IA-02 recount is still going on. Based on official reports from some counties and unofficial reports from other counties some sources have Rita Hart (D) up by margins of either 1 or 3 votes. Quite possible this ends up in court. In NY-22 it looks like Brindisi is up by 13 votes but potentially with a couple of thousand disputed ballots still to be counted. A state court has issued an injunction to delay certification while the disputed ballots fiasco us resolved. The next court hearing is Monday. However with more ballots likely to be counted Brindisi is probably now favoured. Is there any indication how redistricting might impact these districts? In California and New York are we likely to see Democrats move against the GOP? Meanwhile, in Iowa I'm guessing that the GOP has a free hand?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 28, 2020 14:52:30 GMT
It also looks pretty certain that Mike Garcia is going to hold CA-25 for the GOP. His lead has remained steady at about 400 as multiple batches of ballots have broken roughly 50-50. We are looking at 222-211 with IA-02 and NY-22 both up in the air. The IA-02 recount is still going on. Based on official reports from some counties and unofficial reports from other counties some sources have Rita Hart (D) up by margins of either 1 or 3 votes. Quite possible this ends up in court. In NY-22 it looks like Brindisi is up by 13 votes but potentially with a couple of thousand disputed ballots still to be counted. A state court has issued an injunction to delay certification while the disputed ballots fiasco us resolved. The next court hearing is Monday. However with more ballots likely to be counted Brindisi is probably now favoured. Is there any indication how redistricting might impact these districts? In California and New York are we likely to see Democrats move against the GOP? Meanwhile, in Iowa I'm guessing that the GOP has a free hand? Iowa has an Independent Commission comprised of 5 members, with the Majority and Minority leaders of both the House and Senate picking one member and those 4 members choosing the final member. However the legislature must approve the final maps and if they reject three different proposals from the commission they get to create the map themselves. That said Iowa law also stipulates 1. Districts must be "convenient and contiguous." 2. Districts must "preserve the integrity of political subdivisions like counties and cities." 3. Districts must "to the extent consistent with other requirements, [be] reasonably compact–defined in terms of regular polygons, comparisons of length and width, and overall boundary perimeter." Furthermore there is the issue of practicality. At the moment there is one safe GOP district and 3 swing districts. Since you can't split Polk County (see above) you cannot avoid having a safe GOP district in the West of the state. That leaves the GOP with the option of leaving 3 swing districts or a fairly safe Dem district and two GOP leaning districts. It is basically impossible to create a map that has 4 GOP leaning districts and even if you could all 4 would be vulnerable in a strong Democratic year. Essentially the Democrats have three strongholds in Iowa; Linn County (Cedar Rapids), Johnson County (Iowa City - Uni of Iowa) and Polk County (Des Moines) which are respectively in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd districts and each combine with rural areas to creative nice competitive districts. Since Linn and Johnson border one another they could easily be combined if you wanted create a fairly safe Democrat district.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 29, 2020 0:30:18 GMT
The IA-02 recount is still going on. Based on official reports from some counties and unofficial reports from other counties some sources have Rita Hart (D) up by margins of either 1 or 3 votes. Quite possible this ends up in court. All 24 counties in the district have recounted and reported their numbers. Miller-Meeks (R) appears to have won by 6 votes. The result is due to be certified on Monday.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 30, 2020 16:14:52 GMT
Mark Kelly will be seated in the Senate on Wednesday.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 30, 2020 16:44:06 GMT
Mark Kelly will be seated in the Senate on Wednesday. The first 'proper' astronaut since John Glenn's retirement - Bill Nelson was a congressman who was a payload specialist on the Shuttle Colombia.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2020 17:10:49 GMT
Jake Garn - a Senator from Utah - also went up in Discovery in 1985.
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