timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 26, 2020 22:42:30 GMT
And I think that’s a far more sensible, and achievable, way of proceeding than “court packing”.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 26, 2020 22:53:45 GMT
"The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour,"
Good luck getting a constitutional amendment through to restrict that.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 26, 2020 23:29:00 GMT
"The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour," Good luck getting a constitutional amendment through to restrict that. Actually I think the toughest job would be getting it through Congress, getting State ratification would, IMO, not be insurmountable.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 28, 2020 14:16:56 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 28, 2020 20:09:19 GMT
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Post by relique on Sept 28, 2020 20:23:47 GMT
It's true that it's quite infantalizing and shows quite a contempt toward the core voter. But I also think it's quite disconnected to reality. Seems to me that beyond twitter, no one really care about "hard-left" or "radical-left". Most probably because the hard-left and radical-left's actions don't have much of an impact beyond twitter...
Haven't people from Georgia got real problems to deal with and to ask for their elected representatives to respond to ?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 28, 2020 20:37:42 GMT
It's true that it's quite infantalizing and shows quite a contempt toward the core voter. But I also think it's quite disconnected to reality. Seems to me that beyond twitter, no one really care about "hard-left" or "radical-left". Most probably because the hard-left and radical-left's actions don't have much of an impact beyond twitter...
Haven't people from Georgia got real problems to deal with and to ask for their elected representatives to respond to ?
It is ridiculous that a cultivated businesswoman like Senator Loeffler feels the need to play this stupid game.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 2, 2020 0:00:44 GMT
Ratings change from the University of Virginia Center for Politics Crystal Ball (Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and J Miles Coleman):
Senate:
Dan Sullivan (R, Alaska) - Likely Republican to Leans Republican
Cory Gardner (R, Colorado) - Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
House:
David Schweikert (R, Arizona 6th) - Leans Republican to Toss Up
TJ Cox (D, California 21) - Leans Democratic to Toss Up
Charlie Crist (D, Florida 13) - Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Abby Finkenauer (D, Iowa 1) - Toss Up to Leans Democratic
Sean Casten (D, Illinois 13) - Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Lauren Underwood (D, Illinois 14) - Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Jared Golden (D, Maine 2) - Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Jim Hagedorn (R, Minnesota 1) - Leans Republican to Toss Up
Montana At-Large (Open) - Likely Republican to Leans Republican
Jeff Van Drew (R, New Jersey 2) - Leans Republican to Toss Up
Lizzie Fletcher (D, Texas 7) - Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia 5 (Open) - Leans Republican to Toss Up
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 3, 2020 9:12:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2020 14:15:09 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 4, 2020 20:19:21 GMT
Lots of noise on Twitter about how this really hurts Republicans and how the seat is probably going to flip to the Democrats in 2022. I’m not convinced. Toomey had little personal vote (he had a noticeably different coalition to Trump, but ultimately barely outperformed him) so his incumbency probably wouldn’t have helped much. Democrats do have a much stronger bench, but polarisation means that candidate quality matters less than ever. If it’s a Biden midterm (as looks likely) then a state which voted a couple % to the right of the country as a whole starts off Republican leaning, and would likely need a combination of a good candidate and a relatively weak backlash to the presidential incumbent to flip to the Democrats.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2020 21:34:58 GMT
Lots of noise on Twitter about how this really hurts Republicans and how the seat is probably going to flip to the Democrats in 2022. I’m not convinced. Toomey had little personal vote (he had a noticeably different coalition to Trump, but ultimately barely outperformed him) so his incumbency probably wouldn’t have helped much. Democrats do have a much stronger bench, but polarisation means that candidate quality matters less than ever. If it’s a Biden midterm (as looks likely) then a state which voted a couple % to the right of the country as a whole starts off Republican leaning, and would likely need a combination of a good candidate and a relatively weak backlash to the presidential incumbent to flip to the Democrats. Much may depend on whether Governor Wolf retains most of his current popularity and can drag a Senate candidate over the line with him.
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Post by BossMan on Oct 4, 2020 22:41:39 GMT
Lots of noise on Twitter about how this really hurts Republicans and how the seat is probably going to flip to the Democrats in 2022. I’m not convinced. Toomey had little personal vote (he had a noticeably different coalition to Trump, but ultimately barely outperformed him) so his incumbency probably wouldn’t have helped much. Democrats do have a much stronger bench, but polarisation means that candidate quality matters less than ever. If it’s a Biden midterm (as looks likely) then a state which voted a couple % to the right of the country as a whole starts off Republican leaning, and would likely need a combination of a good candidate and a relatively weak backlash to the presidential incumbent to flip to the Democrats. Much may depend on whether Governor Wolf retains most of his current popularity and can drag a Senate candidate over the line with him. Wolf is term limited, initially elected in 2014. Additionally, I have so far not seen any indication that he is interested in Toomey's seat either.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2020 23:08:03 GMT
Much may depend on whether Governor Wolf retains most of his current popularity and can drag a Senate candidate over the line with him. Wolf is term limited, initially elected in 2014. Additionally, I have so far not seen any indication that he is interested in Toomey's seat either. Is this his second term? Grief, my life’s really scuttling by unnoticed. Given that though both Hickenlooper and Bullock originally said to the effect of over my dead body when asked about a Senate run, so maybe an open seat is more attractive. My early money though would likely lean towards Conor Lamb, prolific fundraiser representing a marginal part of the State.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 4, 2020 23:19:06 GMT
Wolf is term limited, initially elected in 2014. Additionally, I have so far not seen any indication that he is interested in Toomey's seat either. Is this his second term? Grief, my life’s really scuttling by unnoticed. Given that though both Hickenlooper and Bullock originally said to the effect of over my dead body when asked about a Senate run, so maybe an open seat is more attractive. My early money though would likely lean towards Conor Lamb, prolific fundraiser representing a marginal part of the State. Well, the good Governor is 71 now, so might not wish to run for the Senate. If he did, I wouldn't be so to quick to write him off: he achieved a big victory in an increased turnout in a non-presidential year. He is also a very rich man willing to spend his cash. If he doesn't run, Rep. Lamb would be a strong candidate if he chooses to run.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2020 23:22:19 GMT
Is this his second term? Grief, my life’s really scuttling by unnoticed. Given that though both Hickenlooper and Bullock originally said to the effect of over my dead body when asked about a Senate run, so maybe an open seat is more attractive. My early money though would likely lean towards Conor Lamb, prolific fundraiser representing a marginal part of the State. Well, the good Governor is 71 now, so might not wish to run for the Senate. If he did, I wouldn't be so to quick to write him off: he achieved a big victory in an increased turnout in a non-presidential year. He is also a very rich man willing to spend his cash. If he doesn't run, Rep. Lamb would be a strong candidate if he chooses to run. So 73-ish if he were to run for Senate; he’s probably thinking “one term and I’ll run for the Presidency” 😀
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 4, 2020 23:57:02 GMT
Wolf is term limited, initially elected in 2014. Additionally, I have so far not seen any indication that he is interested in Toomey's seat either. Is this his second term? Grief, my life’s really scuttling by unnoticed. Given that though both Hickenlooper and Bullock originally said to the effect of over my dead body when asked about a Senate run, so maybe an open seat is more attractive. My early money though would likely lean towards Conor Lamb, prolific fundraiser representing a marginal part of the State. I suppose the difference is that Democratic party establishment were desperate to recruit Hickenlooper and Bullock. They have enough good options in PA that they won't be begging Wolf to run.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 5, 2020 0:05:11 GMT
Is this his second term? Grief, my life’s really scuttling by unnoticed. Given that though both Hickenlooper and Bullock originally said to the effect of over my dead body when asked about a Senate run, so maybe an open seat is more attractive. My early money though would likely lean towards Conor Lamb, prolific fundraiser representing a marginal part of the State. I suppose the difference is that Democratic party establishment were desperate to recruit Hickenlooper and Bullock. They have enough good options in PA that they won't be begging Wolf to run. They could credibly make the case to Bullock that only he had a realistic chance of flipping the seat, but even when the national environment was better for Republicans and Hickenlooper's proto-candidacy less tainted, that wasn't really true in Colorado. Wolf should possess a similar electoral advantage over of the rest of the PADEM bench to what Hickenlooper was widely believed to hold over other Colorado Democrats last year.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 5, 2020 0:20:08 GMT
Is this his second term? Grief, my life’s really scuttling by unnoticed. Given that though both Hickenlooper and Bullock originally said to the effect of over my dead body when asked about a Senate run, so maybe an open seat is more attractive. My early money though would likely lean towards Conor Lamb, prolific fundraiser representing a marginal part of the State. I suppose the difference is that Democratic party establishment were desperate to recruit Hickenlooper and Bullock. They have enough good options in PA that they won't be begging Wolf to run. Yes, the advantages Wolf brings is statewide name recognition, and a proven ability to win statewide, but as you say there’s a reasonable Democratic bench there, and I suspect they’ll initially look elsewhere.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 6, 2020 19:51:34 GMT
4 weeks to go here are my current ratings on the battle for the Seante. As usual the scale is safe, likely, lean, tilt, toss up. First up Democrat held seats.
Alabama - Safe GOP - Jones only chance was fighting an equally flawed candidate as he did in the special election and even then he would have been underdog. If Biden wins he will likely get a position in the administration.
Michigan - Likely Dem - I am probably being generous in considering this remotely competitive. Peters is overwhelming favourite.
All other Dem held seats are safe. Now a much longer list of GOP held seats in order of vulnerability.
Arizona - Likely Dem - Arizona is trending blue, Kelly is a fantastic candidate and McSally is a terrible one.
Colorado - Likely Dem - Colorado is now a light blue state and Hickenlooper is a fairly popular recent former governor. Gardner is likeable and a good campaigner but the fundamentals are really against him. I think he has a slightly better chance of pulling off an upset than McSally but he is in deep trouble.
North Carolina - Lean Dem - Tillis has trailed in pretty much every poll, in many by a substantial amount and is badly underperforming Trump. He has never been that popular and only won narrowly in the GOP wave of 2014. A decent Trump win here might just pull Tillis over the line but I make Cunningham clear favourite.
Maine - Tilt Dem - Gideon has led in every poll but not by much. Collins still has some crossover support and there is some indication that the Barrett nomination is helping her by allowing her to showcase independence. Gideon is favourite, especially if Biden wins big but if the Democrats fail to take the Senate this will probably be the seat that will have caused them to miss out.
Iowa - Toss up - Ernst started the year as favourite but this is now pretty much a dead heat. Neither candidate is really setting the world alight.
South Carolina - Tilts GOP - This was on almost nobodies radar at the start of the year but Harrison has fought a great campaign while Graham has been awful. The latter probably still wins because of the fundamentals but this looks really, really close.
Georgia (Regular) - Leans GOP - Predue has had a small but solid lead all year and this will probably hold although if Biden were to win Georgia he might just pull Ossoff over the line.
Montana - Leans GOP - Close race between an incumbent Senator and an sitting Governor but the fundamentals have always favoured Daines.
Kansas - Likely GOP - Looks close but I have a hard time seeing anything other than a Marshall win, even if it is only by a few points.
Alaska - Likely GOP - Hard to rate this due to a lack of polling but I think Sullivan will be fine.
Georgia (Special) - Likely GOP - Obviously heading to a run off and a lot will depend on the circumstances but in a general a low turnout run off should favour the GOP.
Texas - Likely GOP - Unlike some I have never thought that Cornyn was in a competitive race but it is just possible that of everything goes right for the Democrats that this might just flip.
All other GOP seats are safe although I wouldn't be surprised to see Mississippi a bit closer than expected. Hyde-Smith has been really low key in the Senate and at home.
Overall I think 50-50 is the most likely outcome. On a good night the GOP could retain a comfortable enough majority but if Trump really bombs he could drag a lot of Senate seats down with him. The Democrats on 54+ seats is not a likely outcome but it is far from impossible.
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