timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 6, 2020 19:56:55 GMT
4 weeks to go here are my current ratings on the battle for the Seante. As usual the scale is safe, likely, lean, tilt, toss up. First up Democrat held seats. Alabama - Safe GOP - Jones only chance was fighting an equally flawed candidate as he did in the special election and even then he would have been underdog. If Biden wins he will likely get a position in the administration. Michigan - Likely Dem - I am probably being generous in considering this remotely competitive. Peters is overwhelming favourite. All other Dem held seats are safe. Now a much longer list of GOP held seats in order of vulnerability. Arizona - Likely Dem - Arizona is trending blue, Kelly is a fantastic candidate and McSally is a terrible one. Colorado - Likely Dem - Colorado is now a light blue state and Hickenlooper is a fairly popular recent former governor. Gardner is likeable and a good campaigner but the fundamentals are really against him. I think he has a slightly better chance of pulling off an upset than McSally but he is in deep trouble. North Carolina - Lean Dem - Tillis has trailed in pretty much every poll, in many by a substantial amount and is badly underperforming Trump. He has never been that popular and only won narrowly in the GOP wave of 2014. A decent Trump win here might just pull Tillis over the line but I make Cunningham clear favourite. Maine - Tilt Dem - Gideon has led in every poll but not by much. Collins still has some crossover support and there is some indication that the Barrett nomination is helping her by allowing her to showcase independence. Gideon is favourite, especially if Biden wins big but if the Democrats fail to take the Senate this will probably be the seat that will have caused them to miss out. Iowa - Toss up - Ernst started the year as favourite but this is now pretty much a dead heat. Neither candidate is really setting the world alight. South Carolina - Tilts GOP - This was on almost nobodies radar at the start of the year but Harrison has fought a great campaign while Graham has been awful. The latter probably still wins because of the fundamentals but this looks really, really close. Georgia (Regular) - Leans GOP - Predue has had a small but solid lead all year and this will probably hold although if Biden were to win Georgia he might just pull Ossoff over the line. Montana - Leans GOP - Close race between an incumbent Senator and an sitting Governor but the fundamentals have always favoured Daines. Kansas - Likely GOP - Looks close but I have a hard time seeing anything other than a Marshall win, even if it is only by a few points. Alaska - Likely GOP - Hard to rate this due to a lack of polling but I think Sullivan will be fine. Georgia (Special) - Likely GOP - Obviously heading to a run off and a lot will depend on the circumstances but in a general a low turnout run off should favour the GOP. Texas - Likely GOP - Unlike some I have never thought that Cornyn was in a competitive race but it is just possible that of everything goes right for the Democrats that this might just flip. All other GOP seats are safe although I wouldn't be surprised to see Mississippi a bit closer than expected. Hyde-Smith has been really low key in the Senate and at home. Overall I think 50-50 is the most likely outcome. On a good night the GOP could retain a comfortable enough majority but if Trump really bombs he could drag a lot of Senate seats down with him. The Democrats on 54+ seats is not a likely outcome but it is far from impossible. Do you think the “sexting” affair (I’m trying to think of a less dramatic phrase than scandal) hurts Cunningham/helps Tillis in NC?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2020 20:02:23 GMT
B/C rated pollster so make of this what you will
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 6, 2020 20:05:33 GMT
B/C rated pollster so make of this what you will B/C rated pollster - that's better than their College Football team that cost me a top 10 finish in ESPN's College Bowl Mania last year... However Cunningham's got himself caught sexting a woman who isn't his wife, which may well help Tillis, as may the SCOTUS nomination; I'm less confident of a D pick-up than I was a few days ago.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 6, 2020 20:06:48 GMT
Do you think the “sexting” affair (I’m trying to think of a less dramatic phrase than scandal) hurts Cunningham/helps Tillis in NC? Probably a little but I am far from convinced that it will make a significant difference. In the era of Trump it seems very, very tame.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 6, 2020 20:07:57 GMT
B/C rated pollster so make of this what you will They have been the best pollster for Tillis all year. That doesn't make them wrong but it does put this poll in context.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 6, 2020 20:59:59 GMT
B/C rated pollster so make of this what you will B/C rated pollster - that's better than their College Football team that cost me a top 10 finish in ESPN's College Bowl Mania last year... However Cunningham's got himself caught sexting a woman who isn't his wife, which may well help Tillis, as may the SCOTUS nomination; I'm less confident of a D pick-up than I was a few days ago.
PPP are the only other post-sexting pollster so far. Their figures were a lot better for Cunningham. Cunningham (D) - 48% Tillis (R) (INC) - 42% It certainly threw the cat among the pigeons of what was looking like a very likely Dem gain, but I can't see it making a massive difference either.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 6, 2020 21:05:06 GMT
B/C rated pollster - that's better than their College Football team that cost me a top 10 finish in ESPN's College Bowl Mania last year... However Cunningham's got himself caught sexting a woman who isn't his wife, which may well help Tillis, as may the SCOTUS nomination; I'm less confident of a D pick-up than I was a few days ago.
PPP are the only other post-sexting pollster so far. Their figures were a lot better for Cunningham. Cunningham (D) - 48% Tillis (R) (INC) - 42% It certainly threw the cat among the pigeons of what was looking like a very likely Dem gain, but I can't see it making a massive difference either.
Hopefully you're right, but I'm mindful that the publication that published the texts are hinting, and no more than that, that they have more revelations to come.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 6, 2020 21:26:55 GMT
FWIW Ipsos have Cunningham up 5% (up from 4% in September) while Biden and Trump are tied. Most pollsters showed, and to a large extent still seem to show, Cunningham running ahead of Biden.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 6, 2020 22:44:24 GMT
Inspired by Richard Allen , whose analysis i broadly agree with, here are my own ratings. Same scale but without any toss-ups. Alabama - Safe Republican. Doug Jones was dead in the water the moment he won the special election. The only reasonably decent non-partisan polling has found him down nearly 20% and even his own publicly released internals have him down. Michigan - Likely Democrat. Gary Peter's is an anonymous senator who has virtually no personal vote. In an environment similar to 2016 this would prove a ripe pick-up opportunity for Republicans, but Biden is likely to win Michigan and Peter's is running level with him. Unless things drastically improve for Trump, this ones staying Democratic. Colorado - Likely/Safe Democrat. Cory Gardner is a party line Republican running against a competent challenger in a state Biden is likely to carry by double digits. He's going to run a bit ahead of Trump, but i've simply seen no evidence that its going to be anywhere near enough to overcome the fundamental partisanship of his state. Arizona - Likely Democrat. Martha McSally is a weak incumbent and Mark Kelly is a very strong challenger. Arizona is similar to Colorado in having a Republican incumbent running in a state thats probably going to vote for Biden, but McSally at least has a non-negligible chance that partisanship and a Trump victory will drag her over the line. Maine - Lean/Likely Democrat. Susan Collins has long had a substantial personal vote, but it is now much diminished. Democrats have recruited a very credible challenger in Sara Gideon who had led by ~5% in most credible polls. Collins isn't dead in the water, but if Biden is winning Maine by double digits as seems likely then its hard to see Collins retaining her seat. North Carolina - Lean Democrat. Thom Tillis is a weak incumbent and Cal Cunningham has been an inoffensive generic Democrat. Cunningham has led almost every poll, often by a decent amount, so is clearly the favourite. Nonetheless, the somewhat unclear impact of the latters texting scandal along with the more even contest at the presidential level still give Tillis a decent chance of pulling out a win. Iowa - Tilt Republican. Joni Ernst has turned out to be a surprisingly weak incumbent. The Senate race seems to be a bit more favourable to Democrats than the presidential with Theresa Greenfield polling slightly ahead, but this seems mainly due to Ernst underperforming Trump than Greenfield overperforming Biden. I could honestly see this going either way but i would very narrowly give the edge to Ernst. Georgia (Regular) - Lean Republican. Polling currently shows a narrow lead for David Perdue but polling shows little difference between the senate and presidential elections so Jon Ossoff could easily pull out a win if Biden does so as well. Also a decent chance of a run-off which usual benefits Republicans but would add greater uncertainty. Georgia (Special) - Lean Republican. After a rough start, incumbent Kelly Loeffer has managed to pull ahead of fellow Republican Doug Collins thanks to going all out conservative culture warrior. Similarly, Raphael Warnock has now taken a clear spot in the top-2 having finally made Democrats aware he is actually running in the election. Georgia Run-offs usually favour Republicans but this is not a given and Loeffer looks like a weaker candidate than Collins so puts this race very much in play, even if the fundamentals still favour her. Montana - Lean/Likely Republican. Steve Daines isn't a particularly impressive incumbent while Steve Bullock is a very strong challenger. Bullock had the edge earlier this year but polls now find a narrow but consistent lead for Daines. Bullock isn't out of it yet, but its unlikely he will be able to turn things around in a comfortably Republican state. Texas - Lean/Likely Republican. Cornyn is an uncontroversial incumbent but doesn't seem to have much of a personal vote. His polling lead is a few percent better than Trump but mostly based off Democrats not knowing who MJ Hegar is. The latter is probably not getting the resources she needs to compete statewide, but the low levels of split-ticketing between the presidential and senate contests means Hegar could sneak out a win on Biden's coattails. Still Cornyn is currently the comfortable favourite. South Carolina - Lean/Likely Republican. Lindsey Graham has run a poor campaign and continues to struggle uniting Trump voters behind him. The polling has become very close with Democrats better positioned than in the presidential race and the race is certainly closer than it should be. Nonetheless, South Carolina is fundamentally a Republican leaning state with a usually low ceiling for Democrats. Considering Graham's problems are to a large extent with voters on the right, he should ultimately be able to hang onto their support and accomplish an embarrassingly narrow victory. Kansas - Likely Republican. Roger Marshall is a credible Republican candidate who helped Republicans avoid a much more competitive race here. Nonetheless, ex Republican Barbara Bollier is a very credible challenger and is keeping this race closer than the presidential contest. Republicans should hold this, but on a very bad night for Republicans this could be a narrow Democratic gain. Alaska - Likely/Safe Republican. Dan Sullivan should hold in a Republican state that values incumbency, but Al Gross is a good challenger and the lack of non-partisan, high quality polling means i can't completely rule out a shock Democratic gain. Overall, i have Democrats winning a 51:49 seat majority. There's more upside for Democrats due to a lot of seats clearly leaning Republican but not being safe. Nonetheless, control is still clearly up for grabs. Its stating the obvious, but by the end of the month we should have a clearer picture of how the presidential race is going and whether the Senate races are falling into line with them (this is particularly true of states like Arizona and Texas where consolidation with the presidential races could produce much more competitive races).
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2020 23:25:38 GMT
Inspired by Richard Allen , whose analysis i broadly agree with, here are my own ratings. Same scale but without any toss-ups. Alabama - Safe Republican. Doug Jones was dead in the water the moment he won the special election. The only reasonably decent non-partisan polling has found him down nearly 20% and even his own publicly released internals have him down. Michigan - Likely Democrat. Gary Peter's is an anonymous senator who has virtually no personal vote. In an environment similar to 2016 this would prove a ripe pick-up opportunity for Republicans, but Biden is likely to win Michigan and Peter's is running level with him. Unless things drastically improve for Trump, this ones staying Democratic. Colorado - Likely/Safe Democrat. Cory Gardner is a party line Republican running against a competent challenger in a state Biden is likely to carry by double digits. He's going to run a bit ahead of Trump, but i've simply seen no evidence that its going to be anywhere near enough to overcome the fundamental partisanship of his state. Arizona - Likely Democrat. Martha McSally is a weak incumbent and Mark Kelly is a very strong challenger. Arizona is similar to Colorado in having a Republican incumbent running in a state thats probably going to vote for Biden, but McSally at least has a non-negligible chance that partisanship and a Trump victory will drag her over the line. Maine - Lean/Likely Democrat. Susan Collins has long had a substantial personal vote, but it is now much diminished. Democrats have recruited a very credible challenger in Sara Gideon who had led by ~5% in most credible polls. Collins isn't dead in the water, but if Biden is winning Maine by double digits as seems likely then its hard to see Collins retaining her seat. North Carolina - Lean Democrat. Thom Tillis is a weak incumbent and Cal Cunningham has been an inoffensive generic Democrat. Cunningham has led almost every poll, often by a decent amount, so is clearly the favourite. Nonetheless, the somewhat unclear impact of the latters texting scandal along with the more even contest at the presidential level still give Tillis a decent chance of pulling out a win. Iowa - Tilt Republican. Joni Ernst has turned out to be a surprisingly weak incumbent. The Senate race seems to be a bit more favourable to Democrats than the presidential with Theresa Greenfield polling slightly ahead, but this seems mainly due to Ernst underperforming Trump than Greenfield overperforming Biden. I could honestly see this going either way but i would very narrowly give the edge to Ernst. Georgia (Regular) - Lean Republican. Polling currently shows a narrow lead for David Perdue but polling shows little difference between the senate and presidential elections so Jon Ossoff could easily pull out a win if Biden does so as well. Also a decent chance of a run-off which usual benefits Republicans but would add greater uncertainty. Georgia (Special) - Lean Republican. After a rough start, incumbent Kelly Loeffer has managed to pull ahead of fellow Republican Doug Collins thanks to going all out conservative culture warrior. Similarly, Raphael Warnock has now taken a clear spot in the top-2 having finally made Democrats aware he is actually running in the election. Georgia Run-offs usually favour Republicans but this is not a given and Loeffer looks like a weaker candidate than Collins so puts this race very much in play, even if the fundamentals still favour her. Montana - Lean/Likely Republican. Steve Daines isn't a particularly impressive incumbent while Steve Bullock is a very strong challenger. Bullock had the edge earlier this year but polls now find a narrow but consistent lead for Daines. Bullock isn't out of it yet, but its unlikely he will be able to turn things around in a comfortably Republican state. Texas - Lean/Likely Republican. Cornyn is an uncontroversial incumbent but doesn't seem to have much of a personal vote. His polling lead is a few percent better than Trump but mostly based off Democrats not knowing who MJ Hegar is. The latter is probably not getting the resources she needs to compete statewide, but the low levels of split-ticketing between the presidential and senate contests means Hegar could sneak out a win on Biden's coattails. Still Cornyn is currently the comfortable favourite. South Carolina - Lean/Likely Republican. Lindsey Graham has run a poor campaign and continues to struggle uniting Trump voters behind him. The polling has become very close with Democrats better positioned than in the presidential race and the race is certainly closer than it should be. Nonetheless, South Carolina is fundamentally a Republican leaning state with a usually low ceiling for Democrats. Considering Graham's problems are to a large extent with voters on the right, he should ultimately be able to hang onto their support and accomplish an embarrassingly narrow victory. Kansas - Likely Republican. Roger Marshall is a credible Republican candidate who helped Republicans avoid a much more competitive race here. Nonetheless, ex Republican Barbara Bollier is a very credible challenger and is keeping this race closer than the presidential contest. Republicans should hold this, but on a very bad night for Republicans this could be a narrow Democratic gain. Alaska - Likely/Safe Republican. Dan Sullivan should hold in a Republican state that values incumbency, but Al Gross is a good challenger and the lack of non-partisan, high quality polling means i can't completely rule out a shock Democratic gain. Overall, I have Democrats winning a 51:49 seat majority. There's more upside for Democrats due to a lot of seats clearly leaning Republican but not being safe. Nonetheless, control is still clearly up for grabs. Its stating the obvious, but by the end of the month we should have a clearer picture of how the presidential race is going and whether the Senate races are falling into line with them (this is particularly true of states like Arizona and Texas where consolidation with the presidential races could produce much more competitive races). Fair enough, and I agree with both yourself and Richard Allen on the whole - I expect to make my predictions a little further along the line. As it stands, I would only slightly haver on a couple of points: Barbara Bollier: has received such a lot of support from both former and sitting Kansas Republicans (many of whom differ with her on social issues), including former Senator Nancy Kasselbaum. It was the support of moderate/liberal Republicans (including, at the time, Barbara Bollier) that helped Democrat Laura Kelly be elected Governor of Kansas in 2018. The split in the Kansas Republicans is quite remarkable to observe and puts one in mind of the 1980s and 2015-20 Labour Party (UK). Kansas politics is different, it is seen as being Republican, Democratic, and Moderate. It reminds me a little of Alaska - look at the campaign of Greg Orman in 2016. Mr. Marshall is still the favourite, but I am would be thinking Lean Republican/Toss-up territory. On Alabama, Tommy Turberville is an awful candidate who is succeeding by avoiding debating Don Jones; the most recent poll has him ahead by 12%. Senator Joes is leading in the under-44 bracket ad their is a fairly stark differential in the racial breakdown among white registered voters, Tuberville led 70% to Jones’ 28%, with 3% undecided. Among Black voters, Jones led 81% to 12%, with 7% undecided. Mr Turberville will win, but not by as much as one might assume - I suspect he will significantly under-pol President Trump, not least because he is too scared to have a televised debate with Senator Jones.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 8, 2020 10:48:40 GMT
Ratings changes from the UVa Center for Politics Crystal Ball:
Senate:
Kelly Loeffler (R, Georgia) - Likely Republican ➡️ Leans Republican
Kansas Open (Pat Roberts, R) - Likely Republican ➡️ Leans Republican
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R, Mississippi) - Safe Republican ➡️ Likely Republican
House:
John Katko (R, New York 24) - Leans Republican ➡️ Toss Up
Chris Pappas (D, New Hampshire 01) - Leans Democratic ➡️ Likely Democratic
Susan Wild (D, Pennsylvania 07) - Leans Democratic ➡️ Likely Democratic
Matt Cartwright (D, Pennsylvania 08) - Leans Democratic ➡️ Likely Democratic
Governor:
Phil Scott (R, Vermont) - Likely Republican ➡️ Safe Republican
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2020 11:40:26 GMT
Originally posted on the Oregon thread
I don't agree that the Republicans have a "really good shot" at winning Oregon's 4th District but the party registration numbers are interesting. OR-4 went to Hillary by 0.1%.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 8, 2020 11:53:47 GMT
Originally posted on the Oregon thread I don't agree that the Republicans have a "really good shot" at winning Oregon's 4th District but the party registration numbers are interesting. OR-4 went to Hillary by 0.1%. I can agree with Wasserman’s analysis, but there’s a lot of ifs and buts in the RealAPolitics Tweet. DeFazio took 55% in 2016, so comfortably outran Hillary, and I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that Biden will out perform Hillary this year. Looking at the drop in his percentages (59% in 2012 and 2014 down to 56% in 2018), and given he has Oregon State University in his District it hints at an entrenched incumbent taking things for granted.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 8, 2020 19:53:41 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 10, 2020 8:40:49 GMT
In a bizarre situation, the death of the Legal Marajuana Now candidate will lead to the results of the November Minnesota 2nd House district election being declared invalid and a special election occurring in February, As a consequence, the district will be vacant at the start of the new Congress. Democrat Angie Craig was very likely to win re-election in the narrowly Obama-Trump district and will start as a favourite in the special, but the randomness of special elections and potential of less Democratic enthusiasm if Biden is president will make it a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Looks like the November election is back on. A US District Court judge has granted an injunction blocking the implementation of the State law postponing the election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2020 9:10:16 GMT
Bob Good, who ousted Congressman Denver Riggleman in the primary, is trailing in Virginia's 5th District. This is an internal Democrat poll though.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 10, 2020 17:08:45 GMT
Here are my Senate ratings:
On "safe flips:"AL: Jones isn't socially conservative enough to beat even a mediocre challenger like Tommy Tuberville in a year with presidential turnout. It'd be downright impossible for any non-incumbent Democrat even in an environment as Democrat-friendly as this year's but the Supreme Court battle heightens polarisation against incumbents, making his bid even more hopeless than it already was. CO: Gardner is not a particularly strong incumbent, although Hickenlooper (post-ethics scandal) isn't a great challenger, either. This state has been safe D for months at the presidential level and to win it, the incumbent would have had to peel off a lot of Democrats. That isn't happening because of the court battle. With a chance of <5%, this seat is safe D. Likely D MN: Tina Smith is overrated as an incumbent and the polling consensus is that she is hovering around or slightly underperforming Biden's margin in MN. If Trump keeps it close here, this could be the capstone in the Republican Senate majority. That being said, Jason Lewis has had terrible fundraising and I am going to move this to safe D if something doesn't change in the next couple of weeks. AZ: Kelly is consistently earning several digits' worth of crossover support (when it comes to Supreme Court-related polarisation, it helps that he isn't an incumbent). That's likely to decrease a bit as we draw closer to election day, but this would happen in spite of McSally's best efforts. To win, McSally needs Trump to win in Arizona and then erase most of Kelly's overperformance. This is a very tall order. MI: James is doing decently in fundraising and (more often than not) is outperforming Trump. Peters has tried to change this so can't be called Bill Nelson 2.0, but he's not a very well-known Senator. This is only a weak likely D but the national environment is going to carry Peters over the line even if James outperforms Trump by 2-3% or so and undecided voters lean towards Biden in the polls I've seen, which can't be good for the Republican challenger. Lean DME: an ongoing flurry of late endorsements might save Collins and undecided voters could break in her favour and her recent triangulation over the Supreme Court might not hurt her because RCV allows Republicans to cast a protest vote for Max Linn and then give her their second preference votes. That being said, the polling consensus in this state is otherwise in likely D territory and I can't imagine it'll be easy to win more crossover support as we draw closer to election day. Tilt DNC: Cunningham has been getting some pretty outrageous margins out of this state, but unlike in Greenfield's case (see below), polling didn't consistently show him overperforming Biden so I kept the state at lean D while waiting for undecided voters to return to Tillis. The longer this didn't happen, the more likely I was to shift the seat into the likely D category, but the scandals and Cunningham's poor reaction to them means there's now significantly greater potential for the existence of Biden-Tillis voters and consolidation of the base shouldn't be a problem for Republicans. It's the age of Trump so I think sex scandals matter less in general elections, but the current polling is probably overestimating Democrats here. IA: overperforming Biden's margin in a presidential tossup would be one thing, but Greenfield seems to be overperforming his topline number as well (which is more meaningful than simply consolidating Biden support faster than Ernst consolidates Trump support). A history of iffy polling in IA and Ernst having time to brandish her pro-Trump credentials re: ACB means I'm keeping it at tilt D for now but it's surprising how well Greenfield has done given early prognostications re: her candidate quality. I suppose she couldn't do much worse than Biden, who proved to be a terrible fit for Iowa relative to the nation. Tilt RGA-REGULAR: Biden's blowout national margins matter less here than in most states because of the dearth of persuadable voters. What has kept the state just as competitive for Democrats earlier in the cycle as it is now are nigh-on inexorable southern trends, particularly the population boom in Atlanta. Ossoff isn't a particularly good candidate but this race (more than most) is all about turnout and him sharing a ticket with Warnock and Biden probably allows them to collectively appeal well to different elements of the Georgian Democratic coalition. Biden should win Georgia in spite of the ridiculous voter suppression but the greater potential for down-ballot drop-off amongst Georgian Democrats (relative to Republicans) and the mandating of a runoff in the event that no candidate clears 50% means Perdue is marginally favoured. In the unlikely event that Trump wins, Ossoff would be a heavy favourite in a runoff and that also factors into this rating. KS: this state is probably going to Trump by a fair margin but Marshall can't rally the base around his Senate voting record because he's not an incumbent. Much of Bollier's crossover support was going to endure even without Kobach and is showing up in the endorsements she is getting and even Marshall's own internals only have him ahead by 4% (leaked Republican internals, which I fully accept might not have any sort of Republican bias given the manner of their release, actually show Bollier ahead - crosstabs were published, so these can be treated with more credibility than most news about internal polls). Public polls also suggest the race is very competitive and the trends in this state have been positive for Democrats as early as 2016;. A small and northern state like this one should be full of lots of persuadable voters relative to most other seats. Lean R MT: Daines has improved his campaign in recent months with a pretty good attack line: Bullock isn't going to be independent of Schumer because he wasn't going to run if not for his urgings anyway. That might well cost the Governor the race. He has actually led in one recent poll (two, if you assume most of the Green voters break his way in the NYT/Siena poll as there is no Green candidate on the ballot anymore), but there haven't been many polls recently and the majority of the recent ones show Daines ahead (and by further than Bullock's leads). The lack of Libertarian candidates on the ballot also help Daines but, like Collins, Bullock can't be underestimated in terms of finding more crossover support than he's expected to (having overperformed Clinton's margin by 28% in a non-federal election). A rule of thumb is to halve a state's PVI when looking at polarisation in local races and a a significant proposition of voters left the top of their ticket blank while voting just for Bullock in the last election; it's possible polls aren't properly capturing those who'd only vote in one contest when asking voters of their opinions in multiple races and implementing Likely Voter screens. TX: Cornyn is not a strong incumbent, at all. Most of his deceptively large leads have come not from any personal appeal but higher (yet still rather low) name recognition than MJ Hegar, a mediocre challenger who should nevertheless be able to make herself known to millions of voters in the campaign's final weeks. Just as IA is probably underpolling Republicans, there has been a systemic pro-Republican error in Texas polling and I doubt that's going to change this year (Biden is probably not flipping IA while failing to flip TX even allowing for a degree of mean reversion when it comes to recent political trends). Cornyn will probably end up "overperforming" Trump because more Democratic voters are going to leave their ballots blank than Republican voters (due to failure to recognise Hegar), but said overperformance will translate in to fewer votes and probably an advantage of no more than 3%. There's still time for the Democratic Senate candidate to catch up to the top of the ticket here. Credit to the Atlas forum for utilising this graph first, but here's an illustration of why Cornyn's higher name recognition has suggested (and continues to suggest) his candidacy is more formidable than it actually is: AK: I overrated Gross as a candidate earlier in the cycle (he's a bit of a flip-flopper) but he seems poised to slightly overperform Biden judging by fundraising and the most recent polling. This has Sullivan leading with about the same margin as Trump but with lower topline numbers. A bigger name recognition advantage for Sullivan (relative to Trump's advantage over Biden) means that margin is probably a little bit inflated and that he has lower support also means there is more of a path for Gross to win with crossover appeal so this state is lean R while the presidential race remains likely R. SC: the court issue should be helping Graham, but apparently isn't. Bill Bledsoe, the Constitution candidate, dropped out and endorsed him which will be a major help, although he didn't do so in time to withdraw from the ballot so there'll still be room for protests votes (in addition to those cast for the write-in Libertarian campaign). Harrison is a brilliant candidate and will be outperforming Biden, but it's probably not going to be enough. Likely RGA-SPECIAL: a runoff is almost inevitable in this state (there are 19 active candidates and one active write-in in addition to a Republican who withdrew too late to be removed from the ballot). Democratic turnout should fall here, especially if Biden has won. Very close to lean R because Loeffler is just that weak in a runoff and Trump could find a way to depress Republican turnout (e.g. by disavowing Loeffler for failing to stop Biden from becoming president in some extremely authoritarian, incredible way). Edit: I've now added my rating/explanation for MI-SEN.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 11, 2020 0:05:57 GMT
Bob Good, who ousted Congressman Denver Riggleman in the primary, is trailing in Virginia's 5th District. This is an internal Democrat poll though. I've mentioned it before, but I'd like to remind everyone of Riggleman and his interest in Bigfoot erotica.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2020 8:22:17 GMT
Bob Good, who ousted Congressman Denver Riggleman in the primary, is trailing in Virginia's 5th District. This is an internal Democrat poll though. I've mentioned it before, but I'd like to remind everyone of Riggleman and his interest in Bigfoot erotica. He clearly couldn't Riggle out of that one.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 11, 2020 8:23:53 GMT
I've mentioned it before, but I'd like to remind everyone of Riggleman and his interest in Bigfoot erotica. He clearly couldn't Riggle out of that one. Not yeti..
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