jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 20, 2020 14:38:19 GMT
I'm not impressed with this relative to the last model - it makes the same mistake of over-weighting for incumbency and appears to place a lot of emphasis on polling margins even where those involve a high percentage of undecided voters and don't match presidential toplines (in states like Texas, this is far more likely to be a result of Democratic-leaning voters not yet knowing much about Hegar than John Cornyn having immense crossover support). Cornyn does not have an 89% chance and Doug Jones does not have anywhere close to a 28% chance of holding on this year. It does seem odd to improve the chances of incumbents this close to the election. Isn’t the fact that incumbents like Jones and Gardner are behind despite incumbency, if anything, evidence that they are pretty screwed considering they benefit from name recognition/money that their challengers could still be expected to gain?
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Sept 20, 2020 15:18:19 GMT
I'm not impressed with this relative to the last model - it makes the same mistake of over-weighting for incumbency and appears to place a lot of emphasis on polling margins even where those involve a high percentage of undecided voters and don't match presidential toplines (in states like Texas, this is far more likely to be a result of Democratic-leaning voters not yet knowing much about Hegar than John Cornyn having immense crossover support). Cornyn does not have an 89% chance and Doug Jones does not have anywhere close to a 28% chance of holding on this year. It does seem odd to improve the chances of incumbents this close to the election. Isn’t the fact that incumbents like Jones and Gardner are behind despite incumbency, if anything, evidence that they are pretty screwed considering they benefit from name recognition/money that their challengers could still be expected to gain? That was always the prevailing thought but there is some evidence that it no longer applies, or at least it doesn't in many cases. For incumbents like Gardner or Daines who have opponents with equal if not higher name recognition it seems a flawed assumption (see also Ron Johnson in 2016).
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Sept 20, 2020 19:24:31 GMT
Republicans were under polled by Selzer in 2018, however what’s interesting about this poll is the favourability edge Greenfield has built up over Ernst. It’s also possible that if Biden is gaining disproportionately among Obama/Trump voters, you could see big swings in states like Iowa, Maine’s 2nd CD and also Ohio... maybe not enough to win, but could help carry congressional candidates over the line.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,643
|
Post by nelson on Sept 20, 2020 19:44:35 GMT
Republicans were under polled by Selzer in 2018, however what’s interesting about this poll is the favourability edge Greenfield has built up over Ernst. It’s also possible that if Biden is gaining disproportionately among Obama/Trump voters, you could see big swings in states like Iowa, Maine’s 2nd CD and also Ohio... maybe not enough to win, but could help carry congressional candidates over the line. Yes, I think Biden will end up winning ME-02 (Maine is second only to Florida when it comes to residents aged 65 years and over, and Biden is doing well with the elderly) and that he has a decent shot at winning OH, maybe upwards of 40% (which is a shame because I've betted a substantial amount on Trump winning OH, but well..). Biden won't win IA, but he could very well do better than expected. I don't think it matters that Selzer under polled Republicans back in 2018, they are a quality pollster, specialize in IA and have had plenty of time to adjust their methodology.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 21, 2020 20:31:49 GMT
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 22, 2020 10:56:55 GMT
MorningConsult Senate polls:
Basically what you’d expect, although Doug Jones looks less like a respectable loss and more like a standard Alabama Republican blowout.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 22, 2020 11:13:41 GMT
Martha McSally has leaked an internal showing her down ‘only’ 2%. While we probably won’t get the double digits Mark Kelly victory predicted by some summer polls, it’s not exactly a good sign for an incumbent to be releasing polls less than 2 months from Election Day (with mass vote by mail) showing them down...
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2020 11:48:56 GMT
Martha McSally has leaked an internal showing her down ‘only’ 2%. While we probably won’t get the double digits Mark Kelly victory predicted by some summer polls, it’s not exactly a good sign for an incumbent to be releasing polls less than 2 months from Election Day (with mass vote by mail) showing them down... It also shows a swing against her since her campaign published the January internal (which had her up 2%).
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,643
|
Post by nelson on Sept 22, 2020 13:18:41 GMT
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2020 13:34:01 GMT
Posted a little ways upthread.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
|
Post by johng on Sept 22, 2020 16:02:16 GMT
Some decent polls for the Dems.
Though Ossoff has the issue that not a single poll has put him on 50%. If he doesn't get that, it goes to a run-off and he'll lose.
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Sept 22, 2020 16:07:48 GMT
Some decent polls for the Dems. Though Ossoff has the issue that not a single poll has put him on 50%. If he doesn't get that, it goes to a run-off and he'll lose. There's only one other candidate on the ballot (the Libertarian) and no valid write-ins in this race which probably helps him and Perdue avoid this scenario once undecided voters are allocated to all candidates.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 24, 2020 10:23:31 GMT
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 24, 2020 19:40:35 GMT
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 24, 2020 20:28:01 GMT
In a bizarre situation, the death of the Legal Marajuana Now candidate will lead to the results of the November Minnesota 2nd House district election being declared invalid and a special election occurring in February, As a consequence, the district will be vacant at the start of the new Congress. Democrat Angie Craig was very likely to win re-election in the narrowly Obama-Trump district and will start as a favourite in the special, but the randomness of special elections and potential of less Democratic enthusiasm if Biden is president will make it a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2020 18:46:49 GMT
In a bizarre situation, the death of the Legal Marajuana Now candidate will lead to the results of the November Minnesota 2nd House district election being declared invalid and a special election occurring in February, As a consequence, the district will be vacant at the start of the new Congress. Democrat Angie Craig was very likely to win re-election in the narrowly Obama-Trump district and will start as a favourite in the special, but the randomness of special elections and potential of less Democratic enthusiasm if Biden is president will make it a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Pickup opportunity for the GOP if Biden wins. First test of the next administration as it were.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 26, 2020 18:52:19 GMT
In a bizarre situation, the death of the Legal Marajuana Now candidate will lead to the results of the November Minnesota 2nd House district election being declared invalid and a special election occurring in February, As a consequence, the district will be vacant at the start of the new Congress. Democrat Angie Craig was very likely to win re-election in the narrowly Obama-Trump district and will start as a favourite in the special, but the randomness of special elections and potential of less Democratic enthusiasm if Biden is president will make it a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. Pickup opportunity for the GOP if Biden wins. First test of the next administration as it were. Actually I’d say more risky for the Democrats if Trump wins as Democrats are likely to be demoralised and demotivated. Craig has seemed a good, hard working local candidate though, so should be formidable in whichever scenario. Also just a caution that it might not come to this; there’s a legal challenge to the decision to postpone it. The grounds for postponement are that the Legal Marijuana Now Party are classed as a major party in Minnesota as they broke 5% in the Secretary of State election in 2018, however there’s an argument that says you can’t transfer state election performance to federal elections, and that the Constitution mandates the date of the election and that it should proceed with the deceased candidate on the ballot. Worth watching how the courts interpret that.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2020 18:58:38 GMT
Pickup opportunity for the GOP if Biden wins. First test of the next administration as it were. Actually I’d say more risky for the Democrats if Trump wins as Democrats are likely to be demoralised and demotivated. Craig has seemed a good, hard working local candidate though, so should be formidable in whichever scenario. Yes incumbency will probably be more decisive than who wins POTUS but it does seem to be a mixed area where the Rochester metro could do for the GOP but this absolutely depends on enthusiasm
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 26, 2020 21:18:47 GMT
Yes incumbency will probably be more decisive than who wins POTUS but it does seem to be a mixed area where the Rochester metro could do for the GOP but this absolutely depends on enthusiasm Rochester is actually in the 1st district. The 2nd district is the southern Twin Cities suburbs/exurbs.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2020 22:40:08 GMT
|
|