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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2020 5:20:01 GMT
Pelosi's choice for Senate in Massachusetts losing by over 10 points!
Disappointing to see Morse lose but I wouldn't be surprised if he runs again, as Cori Bush did.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 3, 2020 7:35:27 GMT
I thought they had a two Congress limit, but I confess to not checking before posting. National Journal states Democrats removed the House's term limits rules upon retaking control of Congress. Collin Peterson is in his third non-consecutive term as chair of the House Ag committee. It was never a House rule, it is simply an internal GOP rule.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 3, 2020 7:48:36 GMT
National Journal states Democrats removed the House's term limits rules upon retaking control of Congress. Collin Peterson is in his third non-consecutive term as chair of the House Ag committee. Ah thanks, I thought they maybe had a waiver but didn’t know they’d abolished it completely. Could still be debatable however if Pelosi sticks to her word that this is her last Congress as Speaker; can the old guard survive new leadership, and what promises will be made in return for votes for Speaker? Pelosi didn't say that this would be her last Congress as Speaker. The rules that she suggested last November were that for Speaker and other senior leadership positions there would be a limit of three terms but with a fourth term allowable if two thirds of the caucus agreed. There was actually wide opposition to that rule change in the caucus, especially among the congressional black caucus, and the plan was dropped without even being put up for a vote. Pelosi did say at the time that if that rule change was rejected she would still stick by it herself so she can serve another term as Speaker but her self imposed restriction looks to be that she needs two thirds support in the caucus. In the event that Biden wins and the Democrats retain the House I think she will have little problem getting that level of support. In general House Democrats are very happy with how she has handled the last 3 and a half years and as long she makes clear that it would be her final term there is very little chance that a credible challenger will emerge to either her, Hoyer or Clyburn.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 3, 2020 8:23:33 GMT
Ah thanks, I thought they maybe had a waiver but didn’t know they’d abolished it completely. Could still be debatable however if Pelosi sticks to her word that this is her last Congress as Speaker; can the old guard survive new leadership, and what promises will be made in return for votes for Speaker? Pelosi didn't say that this would be her last Congress as Speaker. The rules that she suggested last November were that for Speaker and other senior leadership positions there would be a limit of three terms but with a fourth term allowable if two thirds of the caucus agreed. There was actually wide opposition to that rule change in the caucus, especially among the congressional black caucus, and the plan was dropped without even being put up for a vote. Pelosi did say at the time that if that rule change was rejected she would still stick by it herself so she can serve another term as Speaker but her self imposed restriction looks to be that she needs two thirds support in the caucus. In the event that Biden wins and the Democrats retain the House I think she will have little problem getting that level of support. In general House Democrats are very happy with how she has handled the last 3 and a half years and as long she makes clear that it would be her final term there is very little chance that a credible challenger will emerge to either her, Hoyer or Clyburn. It seems that most of those with whom the agreement was reached are prepared to bring it to a vote in the caucus if the leadership doesn’t abide by the spirit of the agreement. One other consideration - if Pelosi does the upcoming two years as expected that pushes her to nearly 83 at the end of that term in 2023; there surely has to come a point when she calls it a day (I notice Clyburn’s started talking about the need to bring new people into leadership and that may mean him stepping aside).
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 3, 2020 12:09:24 GMT
Pelosi didn't say that this would be her last Congress as Speaker. The rules that she suggested last November were that for Speaker and other senior leadership positions there would be a limit of three terms but with a fourth term allowable if two thirds of the caucus agreed. There was actually wide opposition to that rule change in the caucus, especially among the congressional black caucus, and the plan was dropped without even being put up for a vote. Pelosi did say at the time that if that rule change was rejected she would still stick by it herself so she can serve another term as Speaker but her self imposed restriction looks to be that she needs two thirds support in the caucus. In the event that Biden wins and the Democrats retain the House I think she will have little problem getting that level of support. In general House Democrats are very happy with how she has handled the last 3 and a half years and as long she makes clear that it would be her final term there is very little chance that a credible challenger will emerge to either her, Hoyer or Clyburn. It seems that most of those with whom the agreement was reached are prepared to bring it to a vote in the caucus if the leadership doesn’t abide by the spirit of the agreement. One other consideration - if Pelosi does the upcoming two years as expected that pushes her to nearly 83 at the end of that term in 2023; there surely has to come a point when she calls it a day (I notice Clyburn’s started talking about the need to bring new people into leadership and that may mean him stepping aside). I don't think there is much doubt it would be a 4th and final term as Speaker for Pelosi and she probably won't even seek re-election to the house in 2022. As for Clyburn, he wants to elbow Hoyer aside, giving him a promotion and allowing someone younger to take his current job.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 7, 2020 17:05:33 GMT
A pro-jungle primary amendment group is playing silly buggers in Florida:
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 9, 2020 21:52:41 GMT
the GOP have dropped Peter DeFazio’s 4th District from their list of targets. DeFazio remains heavy favourite but his opponent seems quite savvy and has just had a 3 minute internet video go viral on multiple platforms. He was already doing okay on the financial front and this should really help.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 10, 2020 18:58:53 GMT
Indiana Governor (Change Research):
Republican - 36% Democrat - 30% Libertarian - 24%
I’m not saying they are wrong, but this is the most Change poll I’ve ever seen.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 10, 2020 23:19:05 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 10, 2020 23:28:53 GMT
Indiana Governor (Change Research): Republican - 36% Democrat - 30% Libertarian - 24% I’m not saying they are wrong, but this is the most Change poll I’ve ever seen. That seriously calls into question every single poll that they publish. Unless something is going on in that race that I am completely unaware of that is is a credibility destroying poll.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 10, 2020 23:35:24 GMT
Indiana Governor (Change Research): Republican - 36% Democrat - 30% Libertarian - 24% I’m not saying they are wrong, but this is the most Change poll I’ve ever seen. That seriously calls into question every single poll that they publish. Unless something is going on in that race that I am completely unaware of that is is a credibility destroying poll. Their Presidential numbers seem right, 53-39 Trump, up from 52-39 in their last poll in April, with Jorgensen the Libertarian at 5%. This might explain the gubernatorial numbers however snydereport.com/?p=2519
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 12, 2020 3:32:56 GMT
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 12, 2020 12:16:30 GMT
And here are the first New York Tines/Siena College polls:
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 13, 2020 23:08:58 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 13, 2020 23:19:22 GMT
Cheshire County is a Democratic stronghold so this is a probably a classic case of no credible GOP candidate running and allowing a lunatic to win the nomination before losing heavily in the general.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 14, 2020 0:18:38 GMT
I immediately knew she would be a Free Stater, though they don’t seem to be up to as much these days.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 18, 2020 11:44:51 GMT
New York Times/Siena College Senate polling this morning:
Arizona: Martha McSally (R)* 43 Mark Kelly (D) 50 Maine: Susan Collins (R)* 44 Sara Gideon (D) 49 North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R)* 37 Cal Cunningham (D) 42
And in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Jared Golden (D)* 56 Dale Crafts (R) 37
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 18, 2020 12:06:46 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 18, 2020 14:02:59 GMT
I'm not impressed with this relative to the last model - it makes the same mistake of over-weighting for incumbency and appears to place a lot of emphasis on polling margins even where those involve a high percentage of undecided voters and don't match presidential toplines (in states like Texas, this is far more likely to be a result of Democratic-leaning voters not yet knowing much about Hegar than John Cornyn having immense crossover support). Cornyn does not have an 89% chance and Doug Jones does not have anywhere close to a 28% chance of holding on this year.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 20, 2020 10:35:03 GMT
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