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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 15, 2020 16:58:11 GMT
Amy McGrath's claimed that Mitch McConnell has made deals with China that have increased their power and enabled them to spy on the US, all while making himself lots of money. This has been rated with "three pinocchios" by the Washington Post who concluded that Mitch McConnell is wealthy because he married well. The McConnell campaign has meanwhile retaliated with an attack ad claiming that McGrath's, really quite desperate, attack is actually a coded racist attack on Elaine Chao. Not sure I follow that, but, let's be honest, if this was the other way we all know CNN would be running with it for days.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 15, 2020 22:07:28 GMT
Amy McGrath's claimed that Mitch McConnell has made deals with China that have increased their power and enabled them to spy on the US, all while making himself lots of money. This has been rated with "three pinocchios" by the Washington Post who concluded that Mitch McConnell is wealthy because he married well. That he's wealthy from having married well doesn't mean that he hasn't made lots of money from deals with China.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 16, 2020 16:25:53 GMT
Amy McGrath's claimed that Mitch McConnell has made deals with China that have increased their power and enabled them to spy on the US, all while making himself lots of money. This has been rated with "three pinocchios" by the Washington Post who concluded that Mitch McConnell is wealthy because he married well. The McConnell campaign has meanwhile retaliated with an attack ad claiming that McGrath's, really quite desperate, attack is actually a coded racist attack on Elaine Chao. Not sure I follow that, but, let's be honest, if this was the other way we all know CNN would be running with it for days. McGrath is an appalling candidate so it could well be an incompetently executed dogwhistle (although it could just as easily be a generic "corrupt McConnell" ad with in-vogue China bashing). I'm not sure CNN running with it for days would actually help him, but if you want to look at how they cover less ambiguous cases, there's an interesting story from Georgia regarding apparently deliberate digital alteration of a Jewish candidate's nose. I doubt it will affect the race at all, but it could be an indicator of how advances in video editing technologies/deepfakes will interact with future election campaigns.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2020 19:30:34 GMT
Massachusetts's 1st Congressional District primary debate starts at midnight our time
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 19, 2020 3:43:40 GMT
Another Republican incumbent under an ethical cloud has lost his primary; Ross Spano in Florida’s 15th District has been beaten by Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin, who was endorsed by über Trumpite Rep Matt Gaetz.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2020 7:48:57 GMT
Eight incumbent Congressmen have now been defeated in primaries this year, double the average.
Dan Lipinski, Eliot Engel and Lacy Clay for the Democrats.
Denver Riggleman, Steve King, Scott Tipton, Steve Watkins and Ross Spano for the Republicans.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 19, 2020 9:55:16 GMT
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Aug 20, 2020 18:26:33 GMT
Has this been posted on the thread anywhere?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 21, 2020 22:33:26 GMT
A warning on Trafalgar polls (they of ‘Minnesota is currently tied fame’). They appear to have gone full German/British 2017 pollsters by creating arbitrary weights to ‘correct’ their data in one party’s favour. In this case, they appear to be weighting based upon the difference between how people say they plan to vote and how they say their neighbours will vote. This is on the assumption that people are projecting their own vote. Beyond this being a pretty arbitrary weight, it fundamentally assumes that because people think there are a substantial number of shy voters, then there must be a substantial number of shy voters. It doesn’t matter why people think their neighbours are more likely to be Trump voters, it is just assumed to be an accurate measure of how there are a substantial number of shy Trump voters. It also seems weird to assume that because people think that their local community is full of Trump voters, this is evidence that being a Trump voter is socially unacceptable. If anything, it may be the opposite. If social desirability exists to any significant degree, then people saying they plan to vote for Biden but they think their community is more Trumpy suggests Biden voters are the one who would be worried about expressing an opinion! This is not exactly a methodologically rigorous adjustment to day the least.
Edit - Also, their polls are conducted using IVR not live caller, so they are assuming significant social desirability around typing a number into a phone pad!
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 21, 2020 22:42:44 GMT
A warning on Trafalgar polls (they of ‘Minnesota is currently tied fame’). They appear to have gone full German/British 2017 pollsters by creating arbitrary weights to ‘correct’ their data in one party’s favour. In this case, they appear to be weighting based upon the difference between how people say they plan to vote and how they say their neighbours will vote. This is on the assumption that people are projecting their own vote. Beyond this being a pretty arbitrary weight, it fundamentally assumes that because people think there are a substantial number of shy voters, then there must be a substantial number of shy voters. It doesn’t matter why people think their neighbours are more likely to be Trump voters, it is just assumed to be an accurate measure of how there are a substantial number of shy Trump voters. It also seems weird to assume that because people think that their local community is full of Trump voters, this is evidence that being a Trump voter is socially unacceptable. If anything, it may be the opposite. If social desirability exists to any significant degree, then people saying they plan to vote for Biden but they think their community is more Trumpy suggests Biden voters are the one who would be worried about expressing an opinion! This is not exactly a methodologically rigorous adjustment to day the least. So ludicrous - my neighbours were certainly likely to vote to leave the EU - I didn't. My neighbours, if they would vote in a European election, would have voted for the Brexit Party, I didn't. In the past, some of my neighbours have voted BNP, I would rather vote Sinn Fein.... Honestly, polling is supposed to be a science, not a cold calling projection exercise.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Aug 21, 2020 23:49:58 GMT
From RCP: (forgive the lazy formatting)
RCP Average 7/18 - 8/18 -- -- 49.3 44.0 Biden +5.3
Trafalgar Group (R)* 8/15 - 8/18 1141 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie
Emerson 8/8 - 8/10 733 RV 3.6 50 47 Biden +3
Trafalgar Group (R)* 7/23 - 7/25 1129 LV 2.8 49 44 Biden +5
FOX News 7/18 - 7/20 776 RV 3.5 51 38 Biden +13
Gravis 6/19 - 6/19 600 RV 4.0 58-42 Biden +16
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon 5/18 - 5/20 800 RV 3.5 49 44 Biden +5
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon 10/14 - 10/16 800 RV 3.5 50 38 Biden +12
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 22, 2020 10:55:00 GMT
A warning on Trafalgar polls (they of ‘Minnesota is currently tied fame’). They appear to have gone full German/British 2017 pollsters by creating arbitrary weights to ‘correct’ their data in one party’s favour. In this case, they appear to be weighting based upon the difference between how people say they plan to vote and how they say their neighbours will vote. This is on the assumption that people are projecting their own vote. Beyond this being a pretty arbitrary weight, it fundamentally assumes that because people think there are a substantial number of shy voters, then there must be a substantial number of shy voters. It doesn’t matter why people think their neighbours are more likely to be Trump voters, it is just assumed to be an accurate measure of how there are a substantial number of shy Trump voters. It also seems weird to assume that because people think that their local community is full of Trump voters, this is evidence that being a Trump voter is socially unacceptable. If anything, it may be the opposite. If social desirability exists to any significant degree, then people saying they plan to vote for Biden but they think their community is more Trumpy suggests Biden voters are the one who would be worried about expressing an opinion! This is not exactly a methodologically rigorous adjustment to day the least. Edit - Also, their polls are conducted using IVR not live caller, so they are assuming significant social desirability around typing a number into a phone pad! One thing we have cause to be grateful for in the UK - however flawed our polling sometimes is, it rarely if ever descends to this level of grift.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 1, 2020 23:58:05 GMT
Massachusetts primaries close in about five minutes. The Boston Globe has an amusing take on the Kennedy/Markey contest:
'Markey/Kennedy primary ends like an episode of ‘Seinfeld’
The contest was mainly about the hopes and dreams of two privileged, straight, white men who would vote pretty much exactly the same way as the other would have on every bill in the future.'
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Sept 2, 2020 1:06:57 GMT
Dave Wasserman has just projected Markey as the winner.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 1:29:09 GMT
Wasserman's also called MA-01 for Richie Neal. Morse is not living up to the hype - he's doing much better than the paper-thin challenge in 2018, but losing his own hometown, which suggests his candidacy isn't particularly strong. Perhaps a better challenger could see Neal off if he continues to stymy healthcare reform (for context, he is in hock to the worst of the pharmaceutical lobbyists - as current chair of the Ways & Means committee, he connived with the Republican ranking member of said committee to block a Democratic House and the Trump administration from ending surprise medical billing).
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2020 1:37:11 GMT
Wasserman's also called MA-01 for Richie Neal. Morse is not living up to the hype - he's doing much better than the paper-thin challenge in 2018, but losing his own hometown, which suggests his candidacy isn't particularly strong. Perhaps a better challenger could see Neal off if he continues to stymy healthcare reform (for context, he is in hock to the worst of the pharmaceutical lobbyists - as current chair of the Ways & Means committee, he connived with the Republican ranking member of said committee to block a Democratic House and the Trump administration from ending surprise medical billing). Actually I should imagine there’s a little doubt about him running again; he’ll be term limited out of the Ways and Means chairmanship (presuming obviously the Democrats hold the House), and there’s an outside chance of redistricting fundamentally altering his District convincing him it’s time to go.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 1:39:17 GMT
Wasserman's also called MA-01 for Richie Neal. Morse is not living up to the hype - he's doing much better than the paper-thin challenge in 2018, but losing his own hometown, which suggests his candidacy isn't particularly strong. Perhaps a better challenger could see Neal off if he continues to stymy healthcare reform (for context, he is in hock to the worst of the pharmaceutical lobbyists - as current chair of the Ways & Means committee, he connived with the Republican ranking member of said committee to block a Democratic House and the Trump administration from ending surprise medical billing). Actually I should imagine there’s a little doubt about him running again; he’ll be term limited out of the Ways and Means chairmanship (presuming obviously the Democrats hold the House), and there’s an outside chance of redistricting fundamentally altering his District convincing him it’s time to go. Does the Democratic caucus have term limits? Pelosi has discussed introducing them, but they've never actually been agreed on AFAIK. The prospects for reform might be even worse if he's confident from the outset that it's his last term. In other news, MA08 has been called for Lynch by DDHQ.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2020 1:41:26 GMT
Actually I should imagine there’s a little doubt about him running again; he’ll be term limited out of the Ways and Means chairmanship (presuming obviously the Democrats hold the House), and there’s an outside chance of redistricting fundamentally altering his District convincing him it’s time to go. Does the Democratic caucus have term limits? Pelosi has discussed introducing them, but they've never actually been agreed on AFAIK. The prospects for reform might be even worse if he's confident from the outset that it's his last term. In other news, MA08 has been called for Lynch by DDHQ. I thought they had a two Congress limit, but I confess to not checking before posting.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 2, 2020 1:46:44 GMT
Does the Democratic caucus have term limits? Pelosi has discussed introducing them, but they've never actually been agreed on AFAIK. The prospects for reform might be even worse if he's confident from the outset that it's his last term. In other news, MA08 has been called for Lynch by DDHQ. I thought they had a two Congress limit, but I confess to not checking before posting. National Journal states Democrats removed the House's term limits rules upon retaking control of Congress. Collin Peterson is in his third non-consecutive term as chair of the House Ag committee.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 2, 2020 3:08:55 GMT
I thought they had a two Congress limit, but I confess to not checking before posting. National Journal states Democrats removed the House's term limits rules upon retaking control of Congress. Collin Peterson is in his third non-consecutive term as chair of the House Ag committee. Ah thanks, I thought they maybe had a waiver but didn’t know they’d abolished it completely. Could still be debatable however if Pelosi sticks to her word that this is her last Congress as Speaker; can the old guard survive new leadership, and what promises will be made in return for votes for Speaker?
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