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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2020 8:32:17 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 8, 2020 0:39:29 GMT
AP has just called it for Jerry Sheridan, and against Arpaio.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 8, 2020 1:46:31 GMT
AP has just called it for Jerry Sheridan, and against Arpaio. It should be remembered that it was only the statute of limitations that meant Sheridan didn’t face the same Federal charges as Arpaio. He was described by one newspaper in Maricopa County as “Joe Arpaio after he changed his name”.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 8, 2020 3:28:32 GMT
In MA-01, Alex Morse has hit a scandal. He's claimed everything was consensual but has admitted to relationship(s) with uni students during his campaign that are at least unethical (allegations which I'm not aware he's denied include matching with 18 y/os on Tinder and dating people at U of Amherst where he teaches). I'd say any serious chance of Neal being upset (he has been taking his primary seriously since before Engel's defeat) just vanished. IMO, the remaining House of Representatives primary to watch in Massachusetts is the 8th district's challenger to Stephen Lynch (who is more controversial due to being the most conservative Congressional Democrat in the state).
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 8, 2020 3:50:41 GMT
Is this the first (primary) defeat of a moderate CBC member who wasn’t scandal-ridden or subject to redistricting shenanigans? If that’s true, it is potentially pretty consequential at the national level compared to, say, the primary insurgencies against an ailing NY Democratic machine. I wonder whether it might encourage some earlier retirements or serious challengers. If I’m not mistaken, 2020 has just exceeded the average for congressional primary defeats in an election cycle. I don’t think Engel was scandal ridden in New York, nor in the ethical sense was Dan Lipinski in Illinois, he’d just grown too conservative even for the party establishment in his district. They both seemed to take their primaries more seriously than Clay, who was out fundraised and outspent by Bush. Bush also had basically not stopped campaigning for the last two years, which also applies to Marie Newman, Lipinski’s conqueror. There will be redistricting next time, which usually pushes a few into retirement; the other thing to watch for is the Democratic caucus has a two Congress limit on serving as a Chair, so there may be some, having hit that barrier in 2022, who decide to go out and earn some private sector $ on the back of their Chairmanship. Of course the obvious retirement is Pelosi herself, who pledged this would be her last stint as Speaker; it’ll be interesting to see if she takes Hoyer with her or whether he has one shot at the top job. Another potential mover may be Adam Schiff, a Senate run if Kamala Harris becomes VP or a gubernatorial challenge to Gavin Newsom. Engel's hot mic moment was a gaffe of epic proportions and neither he nor Lipinski (worth considering, but already somewhat isolated among House Dems) caucused with the CBC or held majority-AA districts (although Engel's was plurality-black in 2018, it was a very narrow margin). The reason why I'd argue Clay's defeat is a little more ominous for incumbents is because there are a lot of CBC members who lean moderate who so far have proved significantly more resistant to primary challengers than other Democratic Representatives in deep blue districts (how much is down to the CBC being serious about incumbent protection and how much is because of their constituencies' demographics is less clear, but Clay was no outlier in either regard). If the Cori Bush strategy is transferable to some of their seats, a tranche of incumbents I'd have previously deemed fairly safe may now be in danger in 2022.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2020 5:08:39 GMT
I don’t think Engel was scandal ridden in New York, nor in the ethical sense was Dan Lipinski in Illinois, he’d just grown too conservative even for the party establishment in his district. They both seemed to take their primaries more seriously than Clay, who was out fundraised and outspent by Bush. Bush also had basically not stopped campaigning for the last two years, which also applies to Marie Newman, Lipinski’s conqueror. There will be redistricting next time, which usually pushes a few into retirement; the other thing to watch for is the Democratic caucus has a two Congress limit on serving as a Chair, so there may be some, having hit that barrier in 2022, who decide to go out and earn some private sector $ on the back of their Chairmanship. Of course the obvious retirement is Pelosi herself, who pledged this would be her last stint as Speaker; it’ll be interesting to see if she takes Hoyer with her or whether he has one shot at the top job. Another potential mover may be Adam Schiff, a Senate run if Kamala Harris becomes VP or a gubernatorial challenge to Gavin Newsom. Engel's hot mic moment was a gaffe of epic proportions and neither he nor Lipinski (worth considering, but already somewhat isolated among House Dems) caucused with the CBC or held majority-AA districts (although Engel's was plurality-black in 2018, it was a very narrow margin). The reason why I'd argue Clay's defeat is a little more ominous for incumbents is because there are a lot of CBC members who lean moderate who so far have proved significantly more resistant to primary challengers than other Democratic Representatives in deep blue districts (how much is down to the CBC being serious about incumbent protection and how much is because of their constituencies' demographics is less clear, but Clay was no outlier in either regard). If the Cori Bush strategy is transferable to some of their seats, a tranche of incumbents I'd have previously deemed fairly safe may now be in danger in 2022. Part of the Cori Bush strategy involves running once to gain name recognition and then winning on the second attempt. I'd expect Jessica Cisneros to challenge Henry Cuellar in TX-28 again in 2022 assuming he doesn't retire.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 8, 2020 8:34:51 GMT
Engel's hot mic moment was a gaffe of epic proportions and neither he nor Lipinski (worth considering, but already somewhat isolated among House Dems) caucused with the CBC or held majority-AA districts (although Engel's was plurality-black in 2018, it was a very narrow margin). The reason why I'd argue Clay's defeat is a little more ominous for incumbents is because there are a lot of CBC members who lean moderate who so far have proved significantly more resistant to primary challengers than other Democratic Representatives in deep blue districts (how much is down to the CBC being serious about incumbent protection and how much is because of their constituencies' demographics is less clear, but Clay was no outlier in either regard). If the Cori Bush strategy is transferable to some of their seats, a tranche of incumbents I'd have previously deemed fairly safe may now be in danger in 2022. Part of the Cori Bush strategy involves running once to gain name recognition and then winning on the second attempt. I'd expect Jessica Cisneros to challenge Henry Cuellar in TX-28 again in 2022 assuming he doesn't retire. Cisneros might, though she’s likely going to need redistrictors in Texas not to carve the District up. It’s also an interesting question whether Hispanic voters are as willing to move to the left by booting out incumbents, and whether more rural Districts are as amenable. I’m not convinced we should read too much into Clay’s defeat; as was pointed out before Tuesday he hadn’t seemed to take Bush seriously and only started advertising last week, a mistake repeated by Engel, both of whom, like Joe Crowley two years ago, seemed to believe they were somehow god-like due to their incumbency. It’s also interesting that a few of these challengers, including a couple in open seats, only caught traction after the death of George Floyd, and whether without that Black Lives Matter dynamic they can repeat the feat.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2020 18:10:14 GMT
Part of the Cori Bush strategy involves running once to gain name recognition and then winning on the second attempt. I'd expect Jessica Cisneros to challenge Henry Cuellar in TX-28 again in 2022 assuming he doesn't retire. Cisneros might, though she’s likely going to need redistrictors in Texas not to carve the District up. It’s also an interesting question whether Hispanic voters are as willing to move to the left by booting out incumbents, and whether more rural Districts are as amenable. I’m not convinced we should read too much into Clay’s defeat; as was pointed out before Tuesday he hadn’t seemed to take Bush seriously and only started advertising last week, a mistake repeated by Engel, both of whom, like Joe Crowley two years ago, seemed to believe they were somehow god-like due to their incumbency. It’s also interesting that a few of these challengers, including a couple in open seats, only caught traction after the death of George Floyd, and whether without that Black Lives Matter dynamic they can repeat the feat. There's also an urban-suburban split - looking at Kentucky, Booker did best in the cities of Lexington and Louisville while losing nearly every other county to McGrath. In Missouri, Bush won St Louis City but lost St Louis County.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 8, 2020 18:30:31 GMT
Cisneros might, though she’s likely going to need redistrictors in Texas not to carve the District up. It’s also an interesting question whether Hispanic voters are as willing to move to the left by booting out incumbents, and whether more rural Districts are as amenable. I’m not convinced we should read too much into Clay’s defeat; as was pointed out before Tuesday he hadn’t seemed to take Bush seriously and only started advertising last week, a mistake repeated by Engel, both of whom, like Joe Crowley two years ago, seemed to believe they were somehow god-like due to their incumbency. It’s also interesting that a few of these challengers, including a couple in open seats, only caught traction after the death of George Floyd, and whether without that Black Lives Matter dynamic they can repeat the feat. There's also an urban-suburban split - looking at Kentucky, Booker did best in the cities of Lexington and Louisville while losing nearly every other county to McGrath. In Missouri, Bush won St Louis City but lost St Louis County. Definitely, although you should also keep in mind home territory as well, particularly if somebody’s a State representative. If you look at the Republicans in Kansas Senate, two years ago Kobach largely won the Republican primary by carrying Marshall’s Congressional District, but this week of course he got slaughtered there by the “hometown” candidate.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2020 18:42:44 GMT
There's also an urban-suburban split - looking at Kentucky, Booker did best in the cities of Lexington and Louisville while losing nearly every other county to McGrath. In Missouri, Bush won St Louis City but lost St Louis County. Definitely, although you should also keep in mind home territory as well, particularly if somebody’s a State representative. If you look at the Republicans in Kansas Senate, two years ago Kobach largely won the Republican primary by carrying Marshall’s Congressional District, but this week of course he got slaughtered there by the “hometown” candidate. Fair enough. Interested to know whether you think Kennedy will beat Markey in Massachusetts.
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 8, 2020 18:55:09 GMT
Definitely, although you should also keep in mind home territory as well, particularly if somebody’s a State representative. If you look at the Republicans in Kansas Senate, two years ago Kobach largely won the Republican primary by carrying Marshall’s Congressional District, but this week of course he got slaughtered there by the “hometown” candidate. Fair enough. Interested to know whether you think Kennedy will beat Markey in Massachusetts. Probably, although Kennedy’s the more moderate and it’s Markey who’s got the endorsements of Sanders and AOC, so it’s different from the other challenges. But the Kennedy name is still Royalty is Massachusetts, and Markey’s something of an understated figure, often in Warren’s shadow in the Senate.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2020 5:42:46 GMT
Member of 'the Squad' Ilhan Omar has won the primary in Minnesota's 5th District 57%-39%.
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 13, 2020 20:05:58 GMT
Member of 'the Squad' Ilhan Omar has won the primary in Minnesota's 5th District 57%-39%. Pressley has no primary opponent (although, in theory, a write-in challenge could be launched, its overwhelmingly unlikely at this stage), so all four have survived. Omar performed the worst, though, and may be particularly vulnerable to redistricting if Democrats win a trifecta in Minnesota and the party decides to split Minneapolis for some kind of gerrymander’s sake. She might have lost had she faced a relatively impropriety-free, more progressive opponent, but Melton-Meaux was at least well-funded and perhaps it would always have been difficult to avoid being painted as “the establishment’s choice against true blue Omar” (at least, without successfully courting the likes of AOC.). This narrative seemed to take hold despite the state party supporting Omar (the DFL almost always backs its incumbents regardless of what national leadership/donors want). Hopefully the close(r) win persuades her to clean up her act w.r.t. the obvious grifts (the Reade claim in her book etc.) and the transactions between her campaign and her husband’s consulting firm.
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 14, 2020 0:23:30 GMT
"A US businesswoman who has expressed support for the QAnon conspiracy theory has won the Republican nomination for a seat in the House of Representatives. Marjorie Taylor Greene is now expected to be elected in November to represent Georgia's heavily conservative 14th congressional district, and become QAnon's first devotee in Congress. It comes amid a social media crackdown on the conspiracy theory. QAnon says "deep-state" traitors are plotting against Donald Trump. Ms Greene is part of a growing list of Republican candidates to express support for the conspiracy theory." www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53747851
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 14, 2020 0:32:20 GMT
"A US businesswoman who has expressed support for the QAnon conspiracy theory has won the Republican nomination for a seat in the House of Representatives. Marjorie Taylor Greene is now expected to be elected in November to represent Georgia's heavily conservative 14th congressional district, and become QAnon's first devotee in Congress. It comes amid a social media crackdown on the conspiracy theory. QAnon says "deep-state" traitors are plotting against Donald Trump. Ms Greene is part of a growing list of Republican candidates to express support for the conspiracy theory." www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53747851She’s not the only Q supporter to have won a Republican nomination this year. In Republican-held (but competitive) CO-03, Lauren Boebert has her party’s nomination and has been supportive, although less vocally (her current line is that she ‘ “hopes it is real”). The nominee in (currently unwinnable) OR-SEN has also taken the Qanon oath, along with some doomed candidates in California and Illinois. Madison Cawthorn, the GOP nominee and overwhelming favourite to succeed Mark Meadows in NC-11, has promoted/liked some Qanon stuff on his campaign account but has not explicitly endorsed it.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 14, 2020 0:39:34 GMT
"A US businesswoman who has expressed support for the QAnon conspiracy theory has won the Republican nomination for a seat in the House of Representatives. Marjorie Taylor Greene is now expected to be elected in November to represent Georgia's heavily conservative 14th congressional district, and become QAnon's first devotee in Congress. It comes amid a social media crackdown on the conspiracy theory. QAnon says "deep-state" traitors are plotting against Donald Trump. Ms Greene is part of a growing list of Republican candidates to express support for the conspiracy theory." www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53747851She’s not the only Q supporter to have won a Republican nomination this year. In Republican-held (but competitive) CO-03, Lauren Boebert has her party’s nomination. The nominee in (unwinnable) OR-SEN has also taken the Qanon oath. Madison Cawthorn, the GOP nominee and overwhelming favourite to succeed Mark Meadows in NC-06, has expressed limited support for Qanon but has not fully embraced it or taken the oath in public. Boebert has actually stopped short of full-on endorsement of Q-Anon, saying that “if true” it would mean that America was returning to traditional conservative values. She hasn’t commented on some of the wilder theories such as Hillary being part of a D.C. sex trafficking ring run out of a pizza restaurant.
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 14, 2020 0:43:44 GMT
She’s not the only Q supporter to have won a Republican nomination this year. In Republican-held (but competitive) CO-03, Lauren Boebert has her party’s nomination. The nominee in (unwinnable) OR-SEN has also taken the Qanon oath. Madison Cawthorn, the GOP nominee and overwhelming favourite to succeed Mark Meadows in NC-06, has expressed limited support for Qanon but has not fully embraced it or taken the oath in public. Boebert has actually stopped short of full-on endorsement of Q-Anon, saying that “if true” it would mean that America was returning to traditional conservative values. She hasn’t commented on some of the wilder theories such as Hillary being part of a D.C. sex trafficking ring run out of a pizza restaurant. Is the restaurant Pizza Express in Woking?
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 14, 2020 0:51:38 GMT
She’s not the only Q supporter to have won a Republican nomination this year. In Republican-held (but competitive) CO-03, Lauren Boebert has her party’s nomination. The nominee in (unwinnable) OR-SEN has also taken the Qanon oath. Madison Cawthorn, the GOP nominee and overwhelming favourite to succeed Mark Meadows in NC-06, has expressed limited support for Qanon but has not fully embraced it or taken the oath in public. Boebert has actually stopped short of full-on endorsement of Q-Anon, saying that “if true” it would mean that America was returning to traditional conservative values. She hasn’t commented on some of the wilder theories such as Hillary being part of a D.C. sex trafficking ring run out of a pizza restaurant. Sorry - I wrote that post in a little too much haste and was just correcting it. Cawthorn hasn’t gone that far either and most of the true nutters were in seats where Republicans couldn’t win anyway. Boebert’s case is interesting because her campaign manager has clarified that she’s against it and she has subsequently contradicted them. There appears to be some serious conflict on this between herself and her team, but I’ll bet she wouldn’t have unseated the incumbent Republican without playing to the Q crowd.
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 14, 2020 3:10:36 GMT
Boebert has actually stopped short of full-on endorsement of Q-Anon, saying that “if true” it would mean that America was returning to traditional conservative values. She hasn’t commented on some of the wilder theories such as Hillary being part of a D.C. sex trafficking ring run out of a pizza restaurant. Sorry - I wrote that post in a little too much haste and was just correcting it. Cawthorn hasn’t gone that far either and most of the true nutters were in seats where Republicans couldn’t win anyway. Boebert’s case is interesting because her campaign manager has clarified that she’s against it and she has subsequently contradicted them. There appears to be some serious conflict on this between herself and her team, but I’ll bet she wouldn’t have unseated the incumbent Republican without playing to the Q crowd. Boebert has actually stopped short of full-on endorsement of Q-Anon, saying that “if true” it would mean that America was returning to traditional conservative values. She hasn’t commented on some of the wilder theories such as Hillary being part of a D.C. sex trafficking ring run out of a pizza restaurant. Sorry - I wrote that post in a little too much haste and was just correcting it. Cawthorn hasn’t gone that far either and most of the true nutters were in seats where Republicans couldn’t win anyway. Boebert’s case is interesting because her campaign manager has clarified that she’s against it and she has subsequently contradicted them. There appears to be some serious conflict on this between herself and her team, but I’ll bet she wouldn’t have unseated the incumbent Republican without playing to the Q crowd. I think she unseated Tipton in part because he didn’t run a campaign commercial during the primary, but also she was something of a local celebrity firstly for having a televised argument about immigration and the border wall with Júlian Castro whilst he was a presidential candidate, and then, in the week before the primary, having been cited for opening her Woking Pizza Express (😉 greatkingrat) in contravention of the State and County’s lockdown directives.
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Post by bluelabour on Aug 14, 2020 10:29:55 GMT
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