timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2020 9:59:56 GMT
Quite baffled by the decision to back Tuberville; he won't get away with not attending election events - even socially-distanced ones - in the general election campaign; he'll not be able to refuse to attend debates as he did in the primary. If he does, in the highly-charged election atmosphere, his tough-guy image will be tarnished. I totally understand the argument that he managed to win the primary by refusing to expose himself to tough debating, as well as the argument that he is a normal man who isn't going to let clever professional members of 'the swamp' set the rules. I also acknowledge that this is a general election, not a special election, so turnout in a heavily Republican state will be far higher. However, Doug Jones will be delighted that the Republicans have nominated the candidate far less likely to appeal those electors who lent him votes (or stayed at home) during the Special Election. If the Tuberville campaign tries to dodge debates, you can imagine the ads calling him yellow-bellied, etc., undermining his strong-man image. Doug Jones has a lot more money on hand - I don't have the 2nd quarter figures, but he had over $8 million at the end of March. I don't imagine for a minute that Doug Jones is going to hold his seat, but a lot of college-educated Republicans, a lot of suburban women, are not going to be too impressed with a vacillating candidate against a much smarter campaign from the sitting Democrat. I see a much closer election result than one would have expected if Jeff Sessions had not headed to the WH. Mr. Sessions forgot the basic rule: He who sups with the devil, should have a long spoon. I think Trump’s decision to back Tuberville was motivated entirely by his loathing of Jeff Sessions, and not by any political calculation. It’ll be interesting to see how his football reputation helps or hinders him; Auburn are very much the poor relations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and there’s no love lost between the two. Danny Tarkanian, son of a legendary college basketball coach, has discovered in about four failed campaigns in Nevada that previous sporting success doesn’t automatically transfer to the political arena.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 15, 2020 10:10:02 GMT
Quite baffled by the decision to back Tuberville; he won't get away with not attending election events - even socially-distanced ones - in the general election campaign; he'll not be able to refuse to attend debates as he did in the primary. If he does, in the highly-charged election atmosphere, his tough-guy image will be tarnished. I totally understand the argument that he managed to win the primary by refusing to expose himself to tough debating, as well as the argument that he is a normal man who isn't going to let clever professional members of 'the swamp' set the rules. I also acknowledge that this is a general election, not a special election, so turnout in a heavily Republican state will be far higher. However, Doug Jones will be delighted that the Republicans have nominated the candidate far less likely to appeal those electors who lent him votes (or stayed at home) during the Special Election. If the Tuberville campaign tries to dodge debates, you can imagine the ads calling him yellow-bellied, etc., undermining his strong-man image. Doug Jones has a lot more money on hand - I don't have the 2nd quarter figures, but he had over $8 million at the end of March. I don't imagine for a minute that Doug Jones is going to hold his seat, but a lot of college-educated Republicans, a lot of suburban women, are not going to be too impressed with a vacillating candidate against a much smarter campaign from the sitting Democrat. I see a much closer election result than one would have expected if Jeff Sessions had not headed to the WH. Mr. Sessions forgot the basic rule: He who sups with the devil, should have a long spoon. I think Trump’s decision to back Tuberville was motivated entirely by his loathing of Jeff Sessions, and not by any political calculation. It’ll be interesting to see how his football reputation helps or hinders him; Auburn are very much the poor relations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and there’s no love lost between the two. Danny Tarkanian, son of a legendary college basketball coach, has discovered in about four failed campaigns in Nevada that previous sporting success doesn’t automatically transfer to the political arena. Aye, but Danny Tarkanian is in highly competitive Nevada, not Alabama.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 15, 2020 10:11:32 GMT
Quite baffled by the decision to back Tuberville; he won't get away with not attending election events - even socially-distanced ones - in the general election campaign; he'll not be able to refuse to attend debates as he did in the primary. If he does, in the highly-charged election atmosphere, his tough-guy image will be tarnished. I totally understand the argument that he managed to win the primary by refusing to expose himself to tough debating, as well as the argument that he is a normal man who isn't going to let clever professional members of 'the swamp' set the rules. I also acknowledge that this is a general election, not a special election, so turnout in a heavily Republican state will be far higher. However, Doug Jones will be delighted that the Republicans have nominated the candidate far less likely to appeal those electors who lent him votes (or stayed at home) during the Special Election. If the Tuberville campaign tries to dodge debates, you can imagine the ads calling him yellow-bellied, etc., undermining his strong-man image. Doug Jones has a lot more money on hand - I don't have the 2nd quarter figures, but he had over $8 million at the end of March. I don't imagine for a minute that Doug Jones is going to hold his seat, but a lot of college-educated Republicans, a lot of suburban women, are not going to be too impressed with a vacillating candidate against a much smarter campaign from the sitting Democrat. I see a much closer election result than one would have expected if Jeff Sessions had not headed to the WH. Mr. Sessions forgot the basic rule: He who sups with the devil, should have a long spoon. I think Trump’s decision to back Tuberville was motivated entirely by his loathing of Jeff Sessions, and not by any political calculation. It’ll be interesting to see how his football reputation helps or hinders him; Auburn are very much the poor relations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and there’s no love lost between the two. Danny Tarkanian, son of a legendary college basketball coach, has discovered in about four failed campaigns in Nevada that previous sporting success doesn’t automatically transfer to the political arena. Tubberville did pull off a win in Tuscaloosa county, obviously the home of Crimson Tide.. which surprised me.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 15, 2020 10:26:34 GMT
I think Trump’s decision to back Tuberville was motivated entirely by his loathing of Jeff Sessions, and not by any political calculation. It’ll be interesting to see how his football reputation helps or hinders him; Auburn are very much the poor relations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and there’s no love lost between the two. Danny Tarkanian, son of a legendary college basketball coach, has discovered in about four failed campaigns in Nevada that previous sporting success doesn’t automatically transfer to the political arena. Tubberville did pull off a win in Tuscaloosa county, obviously the home of Crimson Tide.. which surprised me. It means we're almost certainly not living in the timeline where Joe Manchin persuades his friend (and Alabama coach) Nick Saban to endorse Doug "Roll Tide!" Jones, thereby leading to another defeat for Auburn in November.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 15, 2020 10:35:04 GMT
In the primary for District Attorney in Travis County, Texas, Jose Garza, endorsed by Sanders and Warren, has ousted incumbent Margaret Moore. Garza's win is important because he's not going to prosecute possession or sales of cannabis and other low-level drug possession and because he's pledged never to seek the death penalty, but it's been a pretty good night for progressives in Texas, although the slightly more ideologically aligned Royce West lost out in the Senate primary runoff (though he wasn't exactly a candidate of the party's left and Hegar isn't a centrist, either). Mike Siegel (the 2018 nominee) won the nomination in TX-10 after making up lots of ground for the Democrats last time and in spite of a credible challenge from Dr Pritesh Gandhi and Candace Valenzuela beat 2018 nominee Kimmly Olson in TX-24. The latter is especially important because Olson was clearly less electable by every measure after she made the silly mistake of condoning looting in a Zoom call. Both are in swing districts and if Valenzuela wins, she'll be Congress' first black Latina (which will cause some interesting problems, as with Ritchie Torres' case - he's been told he can't join both the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus). Their biggest defeat came in the state senate where they narrowly failed to know off state senator Eddie Lucio Jr. in his primary challenge, but perhaps the margin (~8%) was small enough that he won't feel inclined to play silly buggers again by siding with the Republicans on various matters. Dale Crafts is well ahead in the Republican race in ME-02, but does not appear to be on course to gain a majority, so Ranked Choice Voting will kick in and it will be interesting to see how many Republicans are prepared to use it this time despite the state party's official opposition to it. No votes have been counted in the following race, but Susan Collins has been declared the winner in her own primary, with her only remaining challenger until now being a low-profile, write-in conservative candidate (who presumably kept her from running to the political centre too quickly). Former Congressman Pete Sessions (who lost TX-32 in 2018) has now won the Republican nomination in the much safer TX-17 and former White House physician Ronny Jackson has won in safe TX-13.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 15, 2020 11:10:40 GMT
TX24 GE: Candace Valenzuela (D) 45% (+6) Beth Van Duyne (R) 39% . Biden 51% (+6) Trump 45%
ALG Research/DCCC Internal Poll 6/11-15
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 15, 2020 11:45:31 GMT
TX24 GE: Candace Valenzuela (D) 45% (+6) Beth Van Duyne (R) 39% . Biden 51% (+6) Trump 45% ALG Research/DCCC Internal Poll 6/11-15 Suburban seat between Dallas and Fort Worth. Only a few years back it was rock solid GOP seat where retiring GOP Rep Kenny Marchant won by 25, 33 and 17 points in 2012, 2014 and 2016. Demographic change has been rapid and with the suburban swing away from the GOP the margin was just 3 points in 2018.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 11:46:41 GMT
TX24 GE: Candace Valenzuela (D) 45% (+6) Beth Van Duyne (R) 39% . Biden 51% (+6) Trump 45% ALG Research/DCCC Internal Poll 6/11-15 Suburban seat between Dallas and Fort Worth. Only a few years back it was rock solid GOP seat where retiring GOP Rep Kenny Marchant won by 25, 33 and 17 points in 2012, 2014 and 2016. Demographic change has been rapid and with the suburban swing away from the GOP the margin was just 3 points in 2018. Texas 24th mirrored the House vote statewide last time at 50% Republican 47% Democrat. I'd expect Biden to flip suburban Tarrant County this time.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2020 11:51:29 GMT
I think Trump’s decision to back Tuberville was motivated entirely by his loathing of Jeff Sessions, and not by any political calculation. It’ll be interesting to see how his football reputation helps or hinders him; Auburn are very much the poor relations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and there’s no love lost between the two. Danny Tarkanian, son of a legendary college basketball coach, has discovered in about four failed campaigns in Nevada that previous sporting success doesn’t automatically transfer to the political arena. Aye, but Danny Tarkanian is in highly competitive Nevada, not Alabama. I think Trump’s decision to back Tuberville was motivated entirely by his loathing of Jeff Sessions, and not by any political calculation. It’ll be interesting to see how his football reputation helps or hinders him; Auburn are very much the poor relations to the Alabama Crimson Tide, and there’s no love lost between the two. Danny Tarkanian, son of a legendary college basketball coach, has discovered in about four failed campaigns in Nevada that previous sporting success doesn’t automatically transfer to the political arena. Aye, but Danny Tarkanian is in highly competitive Nevada, not Alabama. Yes, but he even contrived to lose the supposedly safest District in Nevada, and if you read Jon Ralston the Tarkanian name is even more revered in Nevada as he won UNLV’s one and only NCAA championship. As for Tuberville six consecutive wins against the Tide probably hasn’t endeared him to their fan base. thinwhiteduke Maybe slightly artificial as the College isn’t open so there won’t have been the usual campus vote.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2020 12:03:56 GMT
Remember New York? Two more House primaries have finally been called by the AP: in the 17th District Justice Democrat endorsed Mondaire Jones has prevailed in a safe open seat, and in the 24th Dana Balter will have a rematch against potentially vulnerable GOP incumbent John Katko having fallen 5 points short in 2018.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 15, 2020 12:10:44 GMT
There has been a lot of talk recently about the expanding Senate map and the possibility that if Democrats run the board they could be close to 60 seats or even in their dream scenario get bang on 60 sixty by picking up AZ, AK, CO, GA (X2), IA, KS, KY, NC, ME, MT, SC and TX while holding Alabama.
In reality their path to a majority is still potentially awkward. The will almost certainly lose Alamaba and of those 13 potential gains I still have the GOP as clear favourite in 8 of them (even if some of the majorities could be quite narrow) and slight favourite in IA. A 50-50 senate with the Democrats picking up AZ, CO, ME and NC still looks like a distinct possibility and it is entirely possible that either Collins or Tillis hold on and save the GOP's majority even if Biden wins big.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 12:11:44 GMT
New York's 17th District is where Kyle Kulinski of Secular Talk fame lives.
Needless to say, he was very pleased with Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones winning.
Are Justice Democrats America's answer to Momentum or the Socialist Campaign Group?
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 15, 2020 12:18:10 GMT
New York's 17th District is where Kyle Kulinski of Secular Talk fame lives. Needless to say, he was very pleased with Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones winning. Are Justice Democrats America's answer to Momentum or the Socialist Campaign Group?There are certainly a lot of comparisons, but our countries face political problems of different kinds (and, dare I say, scale). Kulinski would fight right in with Momentum but in terms of Congresspeople, the likes of Jamaal Bowman etc might end up to the right of mainstream Labour politicians and the Democratic Party's internal faction wars are very different to Labour's for a number of reasons (perhaps most importantly the disgusting amount of high-dollar fundraising in US politics).
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Post by jamie on Jul 15, 2020 12:36:55 GMT
Ronny Jackson has won the Republican nomination in Texas’ 13th District, on paper solid Republican but a large Hispanic vote and Jackson ran very poorly in those areas compared to his opponent. Its arguably the most Republican district in the country, so I don’t think he’ll be too worried about the general.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2020 12:50:01 GMT
Ronny Jackson has won the Republican nomination in Texas’ 13th District, on paper solid Republican but a large Hispanic vote and Jackson ran very poorly in those areas compared to his opponent. Its arguably the most Republican district in the country, so I don’t think he’ll be too worried about the general. Probably not, but he didn’t get the retiring incumbent’s endorsement and managed to antagonise local farmers organisations in a District dominated by farmers; one, who was an Agriculture Department official under George, quoted in the New York Times, described him as making Sarah Palin look intelligent. So likely safe but the potential to self destruct.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 15, 2020 13:13:24 GMT
Its arguably the most Republican district in the country, so I don’t think he’ll be too worried about the general. Probably not, but he didn’t get the retiring incumbent’s endorsement and managed to antagonise local farmers organisations in a District dominated by farmers; one, who was an Agriculture Department official under George, quoted in the New York Times, described him as making Sarah Palin look intelligent. So likely safe but the potential to self destruct. It is almost certainly safe even if he self destructs. Not only is the district the most Republican in the nation by Cook PVI but Northern Texas is extremely culturally conservative. It isn't going to elect a Democrat however useless Jackson is. Also his Democratic opponent hasn't filed an FEC report yet indicating pretty much zero donations or expenditure.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 15:09:32 GMT
Mike Siegel, backed by Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren, has won the nomination for Texas' 10th Congressional District.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2020 15:20:57 GMT
Mike Siegel, backed by Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren, has won the nomination for Texas' 10th Congressional District. Sets up another rematch from 2018 when Michael McCaul narrowly won 51.1-46.8
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 17, 2020 13:02:13 GMT
Justin Amash (L) confirmed not to be running for re-election in MI-3.
Republicans will likely regain the district in November.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 17, 2020 19:35:27 GMT
New York, New York: Jamaal Bowman has finally been called the winner against incumbent Eliot Engel in the Democratic primary in the safely blue 16th District.
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