Local by-elections, March 22nd, 2018

[yellowperil]

Here should follow the details of the seven by-elections on the 22nd, which area fairly eclectic mix- Aylesbury Vale, Bassetlaw, Cheshire East, Chiltern, Midlothian, Staffordshire Moorlands andThurrock. 2 Conservative defences, 2 Labour defences and 3 Independent -held at the time the elections were called , although one of those elected as Conservative and one as UKIP.  Almost my final contribution to sorting out these threads- just the one to follow on Maundy Thursday.

[yellowperil]

Aylesbury Vale DC, Central and Walton ward
Conservative resigned
5 candidates:
Philip Jacques (Lab)
Kyle Aron Paul Michael (Ind)
Waheed Raja (Lib Dem)
Lou Redding (Con)
Matt Williams (Green)

2015 election results: Con 1075/944, LD 752/570, Lab 625/427, UKIP 567/481, Green 280/211

Bassetlaw DC, Worksop SE Ward
Labour resigned
3 candidates: 
Leon Maurice Duveen (LD)
Lewis Anthony Stanniland (Con)
Clayton Tindle ( Lab)

2002 election results: Lab 784/659/610, Con 196
2003 election results: Lab 744, Con 210
2004 election results: Lab 1281, Con 502
2006 election results: Lab 809, Con 353
2008 election results: Lab 858, Con 321
2010 election results: Lab 2024, LD 386, Con 319
2011 election results: Lab 1624, Con 277
2012 election results: Lab 1232, Con 179
2014 election results: Lab 1071, UKIP 393, Con 94, LD 50
2015 election results: Lab 1798/1632/1494, UKIP 807, Green 330, Ind 264


Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Conservative sitting as Independent resigned
4 candidates:
Chris Green(Con)
Mark Peregrine Ireland Jones (Lib Dem)
Jake Lomax (Lab)
Mark Sharkey (Green)

2011 election results: Con 1173, Lab 480
2015 election results: Con 1864, Lab 470, Green 320
with thanks to the Forum's man on the ground, Gwynthegriff!

Chiltern DC  Ridgeway Ward
Independent died
3 candidates:
Mohamad Zafir Bhatti (Lab)
Frances Catherine Zeller (Lib Dem)
Nick Southworth (Con)

2003 election results: Chesham RA 676, LD79, Con 46
2007 election results: Ind 573, LD 102, Con 85
2011 election results: Ind 669, Con 118,LD 109, UKIP 32
2015 election results: Ind 808, Con 283, LD 228

Midlothian UA Penicuik Ward
Labour died
4 candidates:
Helen Armstrong (Green)
Murdo Macdonald (Con)
Joe Wallace (SNP)
Vivienne Wallace (Lab)

2007 election results:SNP 2307(1), Lab 1554(4), Lib Dem 1001(6)/974, Con 694, SOL 64, SSP 62
2012 election results: SNP 1427(1)/706(5), Lab 1363(2) , LD 562, Con 474, Green 237
2017 election results: Con 1517(1), Lab 1412(1),SNP 1212(5)/828, LD 425, Green 329
note:First preference votes.  Candidates elected are in bold and stage at which elected in brackets

Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West Ward
Conservative died
4 candidates:
James Aberley (Con)
Bill Cawley (Lab)
George David Herbert (Lib Dem)
Stephen Wales (Ind)

2003 election results: LD 1016/858/677, Con 554/441/352, Ratepayers 294, Lab 225
2007 election results: Con 813/802/717, LD 724/625/478, UKIP 482, Lab 176
2011 election results: Con 687/612/527, LD 576/364/322, MDA 474/457/274
2015 election results: Con 1157/994/921, Lab 697, MDA 506/490, Green 400, LD 380, Ind 293/184
Note:  MDA = Moorlands  Democratic Alliance

Thurrock BC, Ockenden ward
Independent elected as UKIP resigned
3 candidates:
Andrew Jeffries (Con)
Allen Mayes (Thurrock Inds)
Les Strange(Lab)

2004 election results: Con 831/789/735, Lab 743/725/648
2006 election results: Lab 916, Con 791, Green 321
2007 election results: Con 728, Lab 714, BNP 424, UKIP 218
2008 election results: Con 1016, Lab 806, BNP 422
2010 election results: Con 1723, Lab l487,BNP 525, UKIP 385
2011 election results: Lab 1096, Con 1009, BNP 231, UKIP 223, LD 73
2012 election results: Con 900, Lab 809, UKIP 321, LD 40
2014 election results: UKIP 1203, Con 789, Lab 566, LD 67
2015 election results: UKIP 1991, Con 1297, Lab 1224
2016 election results: UKIP 1038, Con 634, Lab 558

[yellowperil]

Aylesbury Central and Walton should have all the makings of another Lib Dem gain - this was all solid Liberal Democrat territory not so long ago, and if you go back to 2003 the Lib Dems held every seat in Aylesbury town. They still hold a number of adjacent seats to this one, and as many here will remember, one adjacent seat, Elmhurst , was regained in a by-election last April with the LD vote going up from 28% to 63%. Failure to win C&W would therefore be very disappointing, but cannot be taken for granted, as this ward only was formed in 2015, so only the Tories have won here so far.

[Pete Whitehead]

Ridgeway will be interesting without an Independent candidate - it's a pretty grotty area and the old Pond Park ward from which it was drawn was fairly safe for Labour before Derek Lacey came along. Presumably the Labour candidate is the former Conservative district and county councillor who defected to Labour

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 10, 2018 9:13:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Conservative sitting as Independent resigned
4 candidates:
Chris Green(Con)
Mark Peregrine Ireland Jones (Lib Dem)
Jake Lomax (Lab)
Mark Sharkey (Green)

2011 election results: Con 1173, Lab 480
2015 election results: Con 1864, Lab 470, Green 320

The two elections to have taken place here have both resulted in the Tories taking 70%, with 30% for anybody else who stood (shared in 2015).

Very rural, rather upmarket.

Leafleted a former council estate a few days ago. First house I went to had a pile of magazines on the windowsill. The magazine on the top was Vogue.

[john07]

Mar 10, 2018 9:13:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Conservative sitting as Independent resigned
4 candidates:
Chris Green(Con)
Mark Peregrine Ireland Jones (Lib Dem)
Jake Lomax (Lab)
Mark Sharkey (Green)

2011 election results: Con 1173, Lab 480
2015 election results: Con 1864, Lab 470, Green 320

This ward sounds like something out of an Oscar Wilde play.

[yellowperil]

Mar 10, 2018 20:25:10 GMT john07 said:

Mar 10, 2018 9:13:51 GMT yellowperil said:

Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Conservative sitting as Independent resigned
4 candidates:
Chris Green(Con)
Mark Peregrine Ireland Jones (Lib Dem)
Jake Lomax (Lab)
Mark Sharkey (Green)

2011 election results: Con 1173, Lab 480
2015 election results: Con 1864, Lab 470, Green 320

This ward sounds like something out of an Oscar Wilde play.

The Lib Dem candidate seems to be doing his best to fit in to that milieu.

[john07]

Mar 10, 2018 20:29:27 GMT yellowperil said:

Mar 10, 2018 20:25:10 GMT john07 said:

This ward sounds like something out of an Oscar Wilde play.

The Lib Dem candidate seems to be doing his best to fit in to that milieu.

I was thinking that.

[andrew]

Penicuik will be interesting, first preferences from last time:
SNP 35.3%
Conservative 26.2%
Labour 25.6%
Liberal Democrat 7.3%
Green 5.6%

Labour might gain this having done so in the Westminster seat last year and I think not doing so would a disappointment for them, equally losing this or just scraping on would be disappointing for us. Of course the Tories seem to be doing better in by elections compared to their national vote share recently, you could blame their results on caveats but there's a chance they could get it on a good night.

[yellowperil]

Thurrock could do with a candidate less strange than some recent manifestations. My money might be on Les Strange to get Ockenden back for Labour if something like normal service is resumed

[timmullen1]

The Labour candidate in Leek West is actually Bill Cawley (as opposed to Crawley); he’s a pretty prominent local historian, author and broadcaster who I think did a brief period on Stoke City Council in the 1980’s.

[yellowperil]

Mar 11, 2018 9:41:30 GMT timmullen1 said:

The Labour candidate in Leek West is actually Bill Cawley (as opposed to Crawley); he’s a pretty prominent local historian, author and broadcaster who I think did a brief period on Stoke City Council in the 1980’s.

thanks for that, spelling corrected. Another of those names where you are itching to put in the missing "r" that you think ought to be there.

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Mar 11, 2018 9:41:30 GMT timmullen1 said:

The Labour candidate in Leek West is actually Bill Cawley (as opposed to Crawley); he’s a pretty prominent local historian, author and broadcaster who I think did a brief period on Stoke City Council in the 1980’s.

Although they appear to have little history of even fighting elections at times in the ward,  this could be interesting here for Labour. If memory serves they gained a seat from the Tories in Leek East last summer with a substantial swing.  Gaining just over 20% in 2015 gives a solid basis to build upon.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Judging by the demographics, it's our weakest ward in Leek by quite a distance - considerably wealthier and somewhat older than the other wards, with a higher proportion of homeowners.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 10, 2018 20:31:21 GMT john07 said:

Mar 10, 2018 20:29:27 GMT yellowperil said:

The Lib Dem candidate seems to be doing his best to fit in to that milieu.

I was thinking that.

Curiously there is no reference to one of his names on his leaflets.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 11, 2018 9:41:30 GMT timmullen1 said:

The Labour candidate in Leek West is actually Bill Cawley (as opposed to Crawley); he’s a pretty prominent local historian, author and broadcaster who I think did a brief period on Stoke City Council in the 1980’s.

Hasn't half the adult population of North Staffordshire served on Stoke City Council at some point over the past 30 years?

[gwynthegriff]

Have now seen examples of the four parties' leaflets for Bunbury.

Labour and Green are pretty generic 'national' themed. The Greens have delivered an A5. Given the scattered nature of much of the ward if somebody asked me to deliver an A5 I really wouldn't be keen...

Conservative and Lib Dem are more localised "newsletter" style. Photos of potholes and broken signage - no bar charts yet!

[timmullen1]

Mar 13, 2018 18:51:10 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Mar 11, 2018 9:41:30 GMT timmullen1 said:

The Labour candidate in Leek West is actually Bill Cawley (as opposed to Crawley); he’s a pretty prominent local historian, author and broadcaster who I think did a brief period on Stoke City Council in the 1980’s.

Hasn't half the adult population of North Staffordshire served on Stoke City Council at some point over the past 30 years?

Erm not really; part of the trouble, certainly until Blair started to become unpopular, was that it was a job for life with very little turnover. I recall having a disagreement with a former Lord Mayor who thought having over half the then current councillors wearing their 20 year long service badges was a terrific thing, I took the opposite view.

[yellowperil]

Mar 13, 2018 18:54:14 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Have now seen examples of the four parties' leaflets for Bunbury.

Labour and Green are pretty generic 'national' themed. The Greens have delivered an A5. Given the scattered nature of much of the ward if somebody asked me to deliver an A5 I really wouldn't be keen...

Conservative and Lib Dem are more localised "newsletter" style. Photos of potholes and broken signage - no bar charts yet!

I know Lib Dems can be very ingenious at finding data for a bar chart, but given the past history here or lack of it, it just might be stretching credulity just a bit in Bunbury!

Have the Greens actually managed to deliver their A5 in the far fling bits or have they gone through the motions in the more accessible areas?

A lot of places the Tories now try to ape the Lib Dem focus style leaflet, because they have seen how it works, but more often than not they make a complete hash of it because often the whole concept is foreign to their way of thinking about the world. Occasionally they do pull it off, though, and I'm never sure whether to cheer (Tories are starting to think like Lib Dems)  or to boo (Tories are going to start winning).

[Pete Whitehead]

What is the difficulty exactly about delivering A5 leaflets in scattered areas? If they were A1 or A0 I could understand the problem more