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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 2, 2024 5:55:57 GMT
Yes. Union and SPD lobby EU parliamentarians from abroad to pass a threshold into EU law to circumvent the German constitutional court, meanwhile the 'problem' they're trying to solce only exists because Germany is the only large country not to use separate regional constituencies, it's quite the ridiculous spectacle. Not sure how you're defining a large country, but Spain uses a single national constituency for European elections (even though there's a really good case for groups of regions there), and I'm not sure if France is still split either. Mea culpa. You're right. France changed it for 2019. They use a 5% threshold, Spain uses none (but D'Hondt). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 2, 2024 6:21:07 GMT
What's the closest an independent has got to winning a Bundestag seat? Has it happened at Landtag level?
And outside the city states, which minor parties have taken Landtag seats? NPD, DVU, SSW jump out out but struggling to think of more, and those were surely not direct mandates.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Aug 2, 2024 7:05:23 GMT
The Pirates were flavour of the month for a while, of course. But like the others relied entirely on the list vote.
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 2, 2024 7:35:57 GMT
What's the closest an independent has got to winning a Bundestag seat? Has it happened at Landtag level? And outside the city states, which minor parties have taken Landtag seats? NPD, DVU, SSW jump out out but struggling to think of more, and those were surely not direct mandates. There were three independent wins (endorsed by several parties standing aside) in 1949. Martin Hohmann got 21% as an independent in 2005 after being expelled by the CDU (he would later resurface as a one term AfD MP), that may well have been the best result 1953ff. FW won a direct seat in Brandenburg while polling below 5% statewide in 2014, which under the state's election law exempted them from the 5% threshold. Not unlikely that the same will happen to the Left in Saxony this year. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 2, 2024 7:39:52 GMT
Also, SSW won direct seats in Schleswig-Holstein state elections in the very early years, as indeed did BHE.
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Post by therealriga on Aug 2, 2024 10:49:00 GMT
As I said pages ago on this thread, you can have local representation, usually in the form of single member constituencies, and sacrifice proportionality to do that. Or you can have greater proportionality and do that at the expense of local representation. What you can't have is both. (*)
That penny has never seemed to have dropped for the people designing the German electoral system as first they had the mess of overhang seats and now the farce of some single member constituencies being unrepresented directly. If some measure of local representation is important for them then they should have at least 50% of the members representing single member constituencies. If proportionality is most important, then just go for regional lists.
(*You could have a proportional system where every member represents a single district, but that would sometimes involve people who finished 7th or lower in the constituency vote representing the constituency, which seems much worse.)
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Aug 2, 2024 12:51:28 GMT
What's the closest an independent has got to winning a Bundestag seat? Has it happened at Landtag level? And outside the city states, which minor parties have taken Landtag seats? NPD, DVU, SSW jump out out but struggling to think of more, and those were surely not direct mandates. There were three independent wins (endorsed by several parties standing aside) in 1949. Martin Hohmann got 21% as an independent in 2005 after being expelled by the CDU (he would later resurface as a one term AfD MP), that may well have been the best result 1953ff. FW won a direct seat in Brandenburg while polling below 5% statewide in 2014, which under the state's election law exempted them from the 5% threshold. Not unlikely that the same will happen to the Left in Saxony this year. So this effectively means DieLinke can circumvent the law by standing in their most popular seats as informally Die Linke-backed indies? Are there any corresponding restrictions for Die Linke to form a group from these "independents" post-election? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 2, 2024 15:36:21 GMT
There were three independent wins (endorsed by several parties standing aside) in 1949. Martin Hohmann got 21% as an independent in 2005 after being expelled by the CDU (he would later resurface as a one term AfD MP), that may well have been the best result 1953ff. FW won a direct seat in Brandenburg while polling below 5% statewide in 2014, which under the state's election law exempted them from the 5% threshold. Not unlikely that the same will happen to the Left in Saxony this year. So this effectively means DieLinke can circumvent the law by standing in their most popular seats as informally Die Linke-backed indies? Are there any corresponding restrictions for Die Linke to form a group from these "independents" post-election? If you're happy with one or two MPs, sure. But why would you if winning three as Die Linke - and while not super probable it's possible with tactical voting - means you're getting the seats you're proportionally entitled to? (Note the election laws in states vary from each other and the federal law, and the 49 law was again different) A Fraktion requires 5% of seats, actually, but you can form a Gruppe with reduced parliamentary rights. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 15, 2024 11:02:37 GMT
Saxony and Thuringia vote on 1st September.
It is likely that the FDP and Greens won't make it in Thuringia, and the SPD are on the edge.
Meanwhile in Saxony, the FDP aren't even showing up in polling. They were last seen at 2 per cent. The Greens and SPD are both on the cusp as well.
It's incredible but not impossible that each Landtag could be just CDU, AfD and BSW.
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 15, 2024 11:05:27 GMT
It's incredible but not impossible that each Landtag could be just CDU, AfD and BSW. *shudders* |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 15, 2024 11:37:46 GMT
Saxony and Thuringia vote on 1st September. It is likely that the FDP and Greens won't make it in Thuringia, and the SPD are on the edge. Meanwhile in Saxony, the FDP aren't even showing up in polling. They were last seen at 2 per cent. The Greens and FDP are both on the cusp as well. It's incredible but not impossible that each Landtag could be just CDU, AfD and BSW. Which one is the real FDP and which (presumably) the SPD? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 15, 2024 11:41:43 GMT
Saxony and Thuringia vote on 1st September. It is likely that the FDP and Greens won't make it in Thuringia, and the SPD are on the edge. Meanwhile in Saxony, the FDP aren't even showing up in polling. They were last seen at 2 per cent. The Greens and FDP are both on the cusp as well. It's incredible but not impossible that each Landtag could be just CDU, AfD and BSW. Which one is the real FDP and which (presumably) the SPD? Sorry, corrected. FDP not showing up in polling, SPD on the cusp of the threshold. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 15, 2024 11:43:55 GMT
It seems unlikely that both the SPD and the Greens would slip below the threshold in Saxony but it would be hilarious if it happened. That they're that close sugegsts they're going to get pretty miserable numbers elected in any event
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 15, 2024 11:56:04 GMT
It seems unlikely that both the SPD and the Greens would slip below the threshold in Saxony but it would be hilarious if it happened. That they're that close sugegsts they're going to get pretty miserable numbers elected in any event Yes, unlikely, but incredible that it has even got to the point where this outcome is in play. God knows what these Land governments are going to look like! |
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Post by mrpastelito on Aug 15, 2024 13:33:49 GMT
It seems unlikely that both the SPD and the Greens would slip below the threshold in Saxony but it would be hilarious if it happened. That they're that close sugegsts they're going to get pretty miserable numbers elected in any event Yes, unlikely, but incredible that it has even got to the point where this outcome is in play. God knows what these Land governments are going to look like! CDU/BSW arrangements. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 18, 2024 16:14:13 GMT
Saxony poll in today:
AfD 35 per cent
CDU 29
BSW 15
SPD, Green, Linke 5 per cent each
FW 4 per cent (an interesting one there)
FDP 2
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2024 7:19:26 GMT
I was in Dresden and Sächsische Schweiz over the weekend. For those unaware, Sächsische Schweiz is a hotbed of right-wing politics in Saxony, not least the AfD. The area is where the Elbe River flows into Germany from the Czech Republic, and is a very wealthy area popular with visitors due to its natural beauty. During German elections, signposts, lampposts etc. get littered with party posters, which isn't exactly reflective of voter intention, but it can be interesting...
I saw hundreds of posters for CDU, SPD, FDP (surprisingly enough) and Die Linke. The CDU posters used a nice black-white-green colour scheme representing the Saxony flag.
I saw lots of AfD posters, but slightly less. Same with the Greens, which were heavily weighted towards Dresden with few in Sächsische Schweiz. Of a similar quantity were the far-right, monarchist and not-exactly-seriously-separatist Freie Sachsen party, which gained a bit of traction during COVID. At least one explicitly pro-monarchist poster, lots in Sächsische Schweiz mentioning the state's 'Free State' title, whilst in Dresden it seems they think that Trans people are the biggest issue facing Saxony.
There were quite a lot of Bündnis Deutschland posters, a party which I would characterise as just as right-wing as AfD, but less centred on migration. They currently have an ex-AfD member in the Landtag. These posters were more common in Sächsische Schweiz
There were a few (in this order) Pirates, FW and Die Partei posters around, but not loads. I saw a fair few for the LaRouche-ist BüSo in Dresden-Neustadt but none elsewhere. I saw an ÖDP (green/NIMBY conservatives) billboard, but nothing else from them.
The most unusual thing was that I saw a total of 6 posters for BSW, only one of which was in Dresden. During the European elections I saw plenty of posters for them in Hamburg, which isn't a strong area for them. The posters were clearly targeted towards this election (rather than re-hashed ones from the European election), so there clearly has been some effort, but not much. It's not clear why.
A final observation is that whilst SPD, the Greens and Die Linke are all close to the 5%, I suspect the worse one of these parties will do, the better the others/another will do. So my guess is that at least one will clear the threshold.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 19, 2024 8:05:44 GMT
Really interesting to see some reports from the ground. Who knew the LaRouche types were still going? And fascinating to see monarchist types floating around. Certainly neither of those sets nor Bündnis Deutschland were visible in the Rhine-Main at the Euros, but then we got Volt instead....
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2024 10:01:31 GMT
Saxony poll in today: AfD 35 per cent CDU 29 BSW 15 SPD, Green, Linke 5 per cent each FW 4 per cent (an interesting one there) FDP 2 You might think that at least two of the three on 5 per cent could be "loaned" enough votes to get them over the threshold. But we shall see. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 19, 2024 10:17:17 GMT
Saxony poll in today: AfD 35 per cent CDU 29 BSW 15 SPD, Green, Linke 5 per cent each FW 4 per cent (an interesting one there) FDP 2 You might think that at least two of the three on 5 per cent could be "loaned" enough votes to get them over the threshold. But we shall see. Purely a hunch- Linke and SPD narrowly survive, Greens and FW narrowly miss. The FW getting in helps the possibilities of a government being formed. But that big AfD-BSW bloc does not. |
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