thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Mar 16, 2018 11:07:52 GMT
Longbeck
C 32.7 (+7.1)
l 26.3 (+12.3)
L 22.3 (+4.0)
I 18.7 (-3.6)
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 16, 2018 11:14:51 GMT
I wish all councils posted riveting tweets like this on election night: The previous one said "Lots more piles now!" "Visitors?" Do they think it's the town's latest tourist attraction?  |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 16, 2018 12:07:56 GMT
Longbeck C 32.7 (+7.1) I LD 26.3 (+12.3) L 22.3 (+4.0) I 18.7 (-3.6) Just fixed the number of Independents |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 16, 2018 12:10:16 GMT
After last weeks Conservative ‘disaster’, a pretty good week for them this week. The fickle world of local by elections! I hope "strong and stable" (aka jingoistic) is not winning the day for the Tories... |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2018 13:00:05 GMT
After last weeks Conservative ‘disaster’, a pretty good week for them this week. The fickle world of local by elections! I hope "strong and stable" (aka jingoistic) is not winning the day for the Tories... I had raised the issue of a "Salisbury effect" on the prediction thread. I think it might have a short term effect of stiffening up the Tory vote in close elections like these, and maybe a bit of a negative effect on the Labour vote. While this is in voters minds, and we have a elections where a few percentage points makes a big difference... |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 16, 2018 17:24:18 GMT
Given that we only once managed to win in recent years it doesn't look as if it's a likely ward for us. Any ward where the UKIP camdidate gets more than our top candidate on a general election day...
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Mar 17, 2018 10:08:55 GMT
On the face of it a good week for the Tories, but let's be honest - 3 by elections, and two were defences is reasonably solid seats. It really doesn't make up for some of the terrible weeks they have had of late.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 17, 2018 11:30:03 GMT
Looking at middleenglander's analysis of Longbeck - my take on it is that compared with 2015,the Independents lost about 4% of their vote share to Labour and the UKIP vote split 7/11 to Tories and Lib Dems  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 18, 2018 11:25:51 GMT
Bit of ramping there. Labour's performances in Longbeck have been less than stellar. Particularly as our candidate was 18, and the LD candidate was a former Labour candidate. Not a good result, but far from our most dire performance in that bit of the world in recent years. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 18, 2018 12:49:44 GMT
Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck - Conservative gain from Independent
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 494 | 32.7% | +7.1% | +4.9% | +4.0% | +6.4% | Liberal Democrat | 397 | 26.3% | +12.3% | +11.1% | -3.9% | -3.7% | Labour | 337 | 22.3% | +4.0% | +4.5% | -6.1% | -7.4% | Independent * | 282 | 18.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
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| -22.3% | -17.7% | -12.7% | -14.0% | UKIP |
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| -19.8% | -21.5% |
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| Total votes | 1,510 |
| 28% | 30% | 56% | 62% |
* stood as Independent in 2015 polling slightly more than Liberal Democrat coming 7 out of 9 and was elected in 2011 as highest placed Labour candidate Swing not particularly meaningful since 2015 but Labour to Conservative ~ 5 % / 7% since 2011 as well as ~ 4% / 5% Liberal Democrat to Conservative Council now 28 Labour, 11 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 9 various Independent South Kesteven, Stamford St George's - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 309 | 45.6% | +12.2% | +15.9% | Independent * | 174 | 25.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 114 | 16.8% | +0.9% | -0.5% | Liberal Democrat | 68 | 10.0%
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 13 | 1.9% | -10.5% | -11.7% | UKIP |
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| -19.4% | -21.2% | Stamford Group |
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| -18.9% | -18.2% | Total votes | 678 |
| 24% | 27% |
* stood for Stamford Group of Independents in 2015 Swing if meaningful Stamford Group of Independents / Independent to Conservative 2¾% / 4¼% since 2015 Council now 42 Conservative, 10 various Independents, 3 Labour, 1 unaligned South Kesteven, Stamford St John's - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 327 | 39.4% | -9.7% | -9.0% | Independent | 267 | 32.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 156 | 18.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 66 | 7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 15 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Stamford Group |
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| -29.0% | -29.2% | UKIP |
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| -21.9% | -22.5% | Total votes | 831 |
| 29% | 30% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 42 Conservative, 10 various Independents, 3 Labour, 1 unaligned |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Mar 18, 2018 20:47:58 GMT
Bit of ramping there. Labour's performances in Longbeck have been less than stellar. Particularly as our candidate was 18, and the LD candidate was a former Labour candidate. Not a good result, but far from our most dire performance in that bit of the world in recent years. Yeah, the local Labour party is probably still trying to recover from Tom Blenkinsop purging every councillor that wasn't 100% in line with him. Thnakfully, he's gone since almost a year. |
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