Election night result rumours that turned out to be BS

[rcronald]

Harrow East

[jakegb]

-Finchley going LD (according to exit poll)
-Reform winning Hartlepool
-IDS's 1% chance of survival in C&WG

[The Bishop]

Jul 7, 2024 13:34:02 GMT jakegb said:

-IDS's 1% chance of survival in C&WG

More understandable than some, few will have foreseen a 50/50 split in the Labour/Faiza vote.

[batman]

I told my wife that there was absolutely no way that the LDs could have won Finchley & Golders Green & that it was a mistake, as soon as it was announced as a possible result according to the exit poll. It was obvious nonsense emanating from a total misunderstanding of the unique circumstances of 2019 in that seat. It was always IMHO going to be a Labour gain in this election, as the 2022 local elections very much foreshadowed, especially once Mike Freer decided that he would not attempt to defend the seat.

[xenon]

99% chance of Tory gain in Perth and Kinross-shire, ended up as an increased SNP majority.

This of course was one of a predicted 12 Tory seats in Scotland.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Jul 7, 2024 13:34:02 GMT jakegb said:

-Finchley going LD (according to exit poll)
-Reform winning Hartlepool
-IDS's 1% chance of survival in C&WG

Pretty much all the big errors - except the Scottish Tory gains - were due to overweighting on the 2019 results.

[Sibboleth]

Jul 7, 2024 23:29:03 GMT Ghyl Tarvoke said:

Jul 7, 2024 13:34:02 GMT jakegb said:

-Finchley going LD (according to exit poll)
-Reform winning Hartlepool
-IDS's 1% chance of survival in C&WG

Pretty much all the big errors - except the Scottish Tory gains - were due to overweighting on the 2019 results.

And this error was clear from the moment Houghton & Sunderland South declared.

[Deleted]

Reform 99% chance of winning Hartlepool.

[Foggy]

I think we need to separate actual rumours by people claiming to be at counting halls (or who know people that were) from early "the exit poll seat extrapolation model turned out to be bunkum" misinformation.

[Deleted]

I caught a whiff of wishcasting on the night about Farage possibly not winning. They course corrected by stalking him with their cameraman for the rest of the night.

[The Bishop]

Jul 8, 2024 1:45:54 GMT swingometer said:

Mel Stride 99% certain to lose Devon Central

He almost did tbf.

Its at least not really comparable to the "Yvette Cooper has lost" rumour which endured for several hours. There wasn't even the exit poll as an excuse there.

[batman]

There was also speculation that Shabana Mahmood had lost Birmingham Ladywood. In the event, her majority was not all that small, although of course it was hugely reduced from previously.

[The Bishop]

But again, that was understandable given what was happening elsewhere.

And in that case, there was a definite anti-Yakoob vote which wasn't really the case with the other Gaza Indies (though it was with Galloway)

[Sibboleth]

Jul 8, 2024 8:38:03 GMT The Bishop said:

Its at least not really comparable to the "Yvette Cooper has lost" rumour which endured for several hours. There wasn't even the exit poll as an excuse there.

Which was especially odd as there was Ed Balls on the telly looking calm, serene and happy and there was no way he wasn't getting updates from the count.

[iang]

I presume some of the errors came from the tv channels just assuming the exit poll worked on the basis of universal swing, hence both Hallam and F&GG appearing as Lib Dem gains some way into the night

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 25, 2024 13:11:47 GMT iang said:

I presume some of the errors came from the tv channels just assuming the exit poll worked on the basis of universal swing, hence both Hallam and F&GG appearing as Lib Dem gains some way into the night

i doubt that given the sophistication of the current models designed to take variations into account

[iang]

I didn't mean the exit poll itself. I meant the way it was being interpreted, so to speak, by the tv channels. The way Hallam stayed as a potential Lib Dem gain on at least one of the channels, can't remember which, is an example

[mattbewilson]

Has anyone seen that episode of Aaron Sorkins Newsroom when they declare the wrong result and spend the night deliberating whether to withdraw or not?

There's two moments I love from that episode. There's one where they ask the data cruncher if the seat would go red and she says she'd bet her house on it. To which they say let's not withdraw then. At which point the data cruncher says no it's too close to call!

The other is when the winner call them up and asks why they've declared the result. At which point they brave face it and tell the candidate to open a bottle of champagne. The candidate tells him they're going to wait for the other networks 'i hope you don't take it personally'. To which he says no and puts the phone down, 'i do kinda'.

[Foggy]

Jul 25, 2024 13:11:47 GMT iang said:

I presume some of the errors came from the tv channels just assuming the exit poll worked on the basis of universal swing, hence both Hallam and F&GG appearing as Lib Dem gains some way into the night

The LD-Lab swing in Yorkshire & the Humber was 1.5% to Labour and in London it was 0.6% to the Lib Dems. The former meant a clear hold in Hallam (which is what happened), while latter wouldn't have been enough for Finchley to fall. 

The exit poll worked fairly well when it came to estimating the top 4 parties' seat totals as it's meant to do, but not individual constituencies.

[YL]

Jul 25, 2024 13:11:47 GMT iang said:

I presume some of the errors came from the tv channels just assuming the exit poll worked on the basis of universal swing, hence both Hallam and F&GG appearing as Lib Dem gains some way into the night

Cambridge was also being shown as a possible LD gain so I think it had erroneously picked up a Lab to LD shift in areas where those were the top two parties, presumably on very little data, or perhaps overgeneralising from tactical shifts elsewhere. IIRC even Bermondsey & Old Southwark was shown as close.