YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,843
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Post by YL on Jul 26, 2024 7:21:53 GMT
I presume some of the errors came from the tv channels just assuming the exit poll worked on the basis of universal swing, hence both Hallam and F&GG appearing as Lib Dem gains some way into the night Cambridge was also being shown as a possible LD gain so I think it had erroneously picked up a Lab to LD shift in areas where those were the top two parties, presumably on very little data, or perhaps overgeneralising from tactical shifts elsewhere. IIRC even Bermondsey & Old Southwark was shown as close.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2024 10:10:40 GMT
Finchley as a 99% certain LibDem gain was nothing to do with "regional swings", but failing to take into account the very unusual and unrepeatable circumstances of the 2019 GE there. In the same way that several MRP surveys (if not the exit poll) showed Cities of London & Westminster as a Tory hold.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,751
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Post by iang on Jul 26, 2024 12:10:50 GMT
Exactly, in the same way I expect Burnley will be in 2029
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