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Post by toryjim on May 16, 2012 19:42:14 GMT
SYRIZA genuinely believe in simultaneously ending austerity and remaining in the Euro. They haven't yet accepted that that combination isn't possible. Quite frightening really. Frankly given that the price of remaining in the Euro for Greece seems to be burning their economy to the ground I really wonder why they seem to be so attached to membership. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on May 16, 2012 20:00:17 GMT
Not a huge surprise to anybody who has observed their behaviour at several recent protests, tbh. Maybe so, but disturbing none the less. God, I'm a terrible person but I actually laughed. Frightening though. |
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
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Post by tricky on May 16, 2012 20:47:24 GMT
Frankly given that the price of remaining in the Euro for Greece seems to be burning their economy to the ground I really wonder why they seem to be so attached to membership. Apparently its a status thing in the Greek psyche. Can't agree with you here. The problem for Greece is that they borrowed too much money - they bankrupted themselves. Either they can stay in the Euro and have one set of problems caused by the fact that they borrowed too much money or they can leave it and face another set of problems caused by the fact that they borrowed too much money. The root cause is not the Euro it is the fact that they borrowed too much money. The graph posted above should also show that the Euro isn't the root cause. If it was then Germany wouldn't have been able to do what it did and the Eurozone wouldn't be doing better than us. Instead the problem in the Eurozone is caused by countries that borrowed too much money. The problems in the UK are caused by the fact that our government borrowed too much money. Going into the Euro enables you to swap one set of compromises for another. For instance at the moment one of the issues for our economy is the fact that our major trading partners are in the mire. That would be a problem if we were in the Euro just as much as it is while we are outside it. If we were in the Euro we would have the problem that we would have to take part in fiscal transfers to Greece and that is a genuine problem. We do have a problem instead which is that our currency is currently appreciating against the Euro and making our exports less competitive. We chose our set of problems over the other set as is our right. The reason I say I am in favour of A Euro as opposed to THE Euro is because I think the fundamental concept of a larger currency area is a good one. I'd like to lose currency variations for much of our trade as I think it would make our trade more efficient - and I really really like free trade. If being able to devalue a currency to become competitive is so vital then why don't we have NorthSterling and SouthSterling? That way the North could outcompete the South on exports and rebalance our economy. One of the arguments against the Euro is the tradition of having sterling. I can see why that is attractive to Conservatives. I am a Liberal and therefore an internationalist so people in the past have less of a hold on me than people in the future. The reason I am not in favour of us joining the present Euro is because of the tendency of Member State governments to flout the rules as they see fit and for there to be no consequences for doing so. The moment you separate cause and effect or seek to elevate politics above maths you are a fool who should not be allowed near any levers of power. Unfortunately due to the presence of politicianblinkers too many elected representatives are willing to ignore reality to fit their prejudices. The reason I am in favour of A Euro constructed properly with rules that are followed is because as a Liberal I retain a fundamental belief that people can be rational actors and that governments also can (when they are forced to be) and that a well constructed Euro that is complied with could provide a boost to all of the Euro economies. I have respect for those whose opinion is that separate member states cannot be trusted in this way (particularly at the moment when they seem to have a lot of evidence on their side!) For example I don't believe that Richard Allen doesn't understand the difference between a well constructed and not well constructed Euro, I don't think all I need to do is explain better (that would be a Labour trait and I am a Liberal) I think he just disagrees with the likelihood of it being possible or realising any of its potential benefits. As I say at the moment he has a more favourable pitch to play upon. I do have a problem with those who simply wrap themselves in the flag and proclaim that the Euro is the cause as opposed to the real cause. Governments borrowed too much money. The Euro may have been an enabler but no-one forced them to borrow it all. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 16, 2012 20:56:26 GMT
What Tricky said. Exalt!
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 16, 2012 21:01:48 GMT
Tricky does raise some good points but he misses out one key point. One of the main reasons why Greece was able to borrow so much was the Euro membership gave them access to lots of cheap credit which there economy wasn't worthy of.
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
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Post by tricky on May 16, 2012 21:03:28 GMT
Tricky does raise some good points but he misses out one key point. One of the main reasons why Greece was able to borrow so much was the Euro membership gave them access to lots of cheap credit which there economy wasn't worthy of. That's what I meant when I said the Euro was an enabler. It didn't force them to borrow too much though! |
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Post by greatkingrat on May 16, 2012 21:08:26 GMT
The single currency is like communism - sounds wonderful in theory but doesn't work in real life.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 16, 2012 21:10:22 GMT
I can't understand why the Germans didn't stop the Greeks from borrowing too much over the last 12 years or so.  |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 16, 2012 21:27:48 GMT
I can't understand why the Germans didn't stop the Greeks from borrowing too much over the last 12 years or so. Because at one point, both Germany and France were also borrowing too much - "too much" being above the Maastricht limit of 3% of GDP. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 16, 2012 22:27:04 GMT
I seem to recall from the time that if the Maastricht criteria had been strictly applied then only Luxembourg would have been admitted to the Euro. There was a lot of fudging all round.
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Post by toryjim on May 16, 2012 22:54:39 GMT
The problem is that the Euro behaves less like a traditional currency and more like a fixed exhange system on acid. History shows us that no fixed exchange system has ever worked, and most currency pegs are very short lived affairs. The fact remains that you cannot run an economy when you've surrendered half the tool box to someone else. The only way a single currency will work is with a single fiscal policy and large scale capital transfers from rich areas to poor. This means Germany shovelling cash all round southern Europe and that isn't going to happen this side of the rapture.
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Post by coolhandluke on May 17, 2012 9:54:59 GMT
Another poll yesterday by VPRC, published in Epikaira magazine, shows Syriza on track to becoming the biggest party in parliament when voters return to the polls on 17 June. Although this poll was compiled between 10-14 May which was prior to news that another election would have to be called given a week of talks to form a government had failed, as had a last minute attempt to form a national-unity government.
Syriza: 20.3%
New Democracy: 14.2%
Pasok: 10.9%
Democratic Left: 6.1%
Communist Party: 4.4%
Independent Greeks: 3.7%
Golden Dawn: 2.2%
Recreate Greece: 1.6%
Democratic Alliance: 1.1%
Other parties 2.3%
Undecided: 17.3%
Don't know/No answer: 6%
Abstention/spoiled/blank: 9.7%
This poll doesn't exclude undecided voters so poll's figures are not comparable with actual election results. There should presumably be quite a few new polls in the pipeline with a fresh election now called but these will stop in the last two weeks preceding the election due to Greek election law.
The political situation could get even more volatile with Greeks now sensing the huge meltdown that could ensue. Those jitters have already meant that 1.2 bln euros of savings (0.75% of deposits) were withdrawn on Monday and Tuesday and, without this being contained, Greece could see a complete run on the bank. If that happens, we could be in uncharted territory and the overall impact on the forthcoming general election?
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Post by hifly15 on May 17, 2012 10:05:53 GMT
These polls which include undecided voters are by far the most useless things.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 18, 2012 18:16:20 GMT
I'm not sure about Merkel's new proposition for a Euro referendum in Greece. It may invite a situation where people vote Yes to the Euro at the same time as voting for anti-austerity parties in the election: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18121414 |
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Post by toryjim on May 18, 2012 18:19:15 GMT
I'm not sure about Merkel's new proposition for a Euro referendum in Greece. It may invite a situation where people vote Yes to the Euro at the same time as voting for anti-austerity parties in the election: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18121414Possibly I don't think the Greeks will go for it, it is a blatant attempt by the Germans to fix the Greek elections. The intention is that a simultaneous referendum will allow the pro-austerity parties to leverage votes from a successful retain the Euro campaign. It is pretty transparent. |
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Post by toryjim on May 18, 2012 18:19:56 GMT
Damn, just as I hit the post button the news broke of the Germans denying it.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 18, 2012 18:24:55 GMT
Damn, just as I hit the post button the news broke of the Germans denying it. It's an awe-inspiringly stupid idea, so obviously you want to deny it. Doesn't mean it's not true though. |
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Post by toryjim on May 18, 2012 18:27:47 GMT
Damn, just as I hit the post button the news broke of the Germans denying it. It's an awe-inspiringly stupid idea, so obviously you want to deny it. Doesn't mean it's not true though. Well applying Sir Humphrey's law on official denials, quite. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,845 
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Post by Crimson King on May 19, 2012 8:18:15 GMT
Not quite sure where the conspiracy theorists are going with this. IMHO it is blindingly obvious that if the Greeks elects a majority of anti austerity MPs, and they then form a government that carries out that promise then that will as night follows day lead to the exit of Greece from the Euro, so the election is to all intents and purposes a referendum on membership of the Euro. It is hardly surprising that people are starting to point that out
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Post by coolhandluke on May 20, 2012 12:07:26 GMT
Two new polls yesterday:
Poll published in the Proto Thema newspaper
New Democracy: 23.1
Syriza: 21.4
Pasok: 13.5
Independent Greeks: 7.3
Democratic Left: 6.0
Communist Party: 5.2
Golden Dawn: 5.2
Others: 7.7
Undecided: 12.0
Poll published in Real News:
New Democracy: 24.4
Syriza: 23.8
Pasok: 14.5
Independent Greeks: 8.5
Democratic Left: 6.9
Communist Party: 5.9
Golden Dawn: 5.8
Ecologists-Greens: 2.3
Recreate Greece: 1.9
Democratic Coalition: 1.7
Popular Orthodox Rally: 1.3
Drassi 0.8
Other parties 2.2
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