Prediction Competition for October 2012

[middleenglander]

Caerphilly, New Tredegar
Pete Whitehead 11.8 faults, Andrew Teale 14.8, Kristofer Keane 14.9, phildav76 21.3, strinity 22.5, tonyotim 26.3, David Boothroyd 30.3, Arthur Figgis 30.9, hempie 32.9, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 34.9, Mark Senior 38.9, Dibs 50.9, andyajs 60.9

Windsor & Maidenhead, Pinkney Green
Pete Whitehead 7.1 faults, phildav76 9.2, greatkingrat 11.5, strinity 11.7, Andrew Teale 15.6, Mark Senior 19.9, andyajs 21.9, Arthur Figgis 13.5+10, hempie & Robert Waller 15.5+10, Kristofer Keane 15.9+10, tonyotim 16.7+10, David Boothroyd 19.6+10, Dibs 35.9+10

Hartlepool, Seaton
Pete Whitehead 21.8 faults, andyajs 34.7+10, Mark Senior 38.6+10, Dibs 40.6+10, greatkingrat 41.0+10, Arthur Figgis 43.7+10, hempie & Robert Waller 47.1+10, Andrew Teale 47.5+10, Kristofer Kean 50.0+10, David Boothroyd & tonyotim 60.0+10, strinity 64.0+10, phildav76 70.8+10

Fenland, St Mary's
Kristofer Keane 21.0 faults, David Boothroyd 27.4, phildav76 34.4, Dibs & Mark Senior 35.0, andyajs 35.4, Pete Whitehead 38.2, Robert Wallet 45.0, Andrew Teale 41.0+10, hempie 41.6+10, tonyotim 44.8+10, Arthur Figgis 45.0+10, strinity 46.8+10+1, greatkingrat 49.0+10

and for the week:
Pete Whitehead 79.0 faults, Kristofer Keane 121.9, Andrew Teale 139.0, Mark Senior 142.5, phildav76 145.8, greatkingrat 156.5, David Boothroyd 157.4, Robert Waller 162.5, andyajs 162.9, Arthur Figgis 163.2, strinity 166.0, hempie 167.2, tonyotim 177.9, Dibs 182.5

whilst for the month:

194.5 Pete Whitehead
243.1 phildav76
258.5 Kristofer Keane
264.1 Andrew Teale
272.9 strinity

273.1 Robert Waller
274.1 Mark Senior
288.0 greatkingrat
290.2 tonyotim
298.4 David Boothroyd

323.6 Arthur Figgis
329.1 hempie
333.5 andyajs
349.8 Dibs

Objections please by 10.00 am Saturday.

No competition until at least 22nd November, if then.

[Philip Davies]

That was a brave gamble on the Seaton result Pete, but it paid off handsomely.Congratulations. Second place out of 14 finishers is my best in a long time.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks. I hadn't actually seen it as a gamble in the sense it was not an attempt to do different from everyone else. You have to remember I submit my predictions by email and at the time I did so, although relatively late by normal standards, the only other prediction visible was that of Dibs. It was simply a matter of when I looked at the candidates and their electoral history I took the view that the candidate who did win would win. It was only when I saw everyone else had come to a different conclusion that I started to doubt myself and realise that I had taken a risk which was likely to see me either finish top or nowhere.
Incidentally has the Fenland result been verified? It seems a bit at odds with the suggestions throughout the count that the result was close and that there was a recount

[Philip Davies]

I had assumed that as Kelly Atkinson was beaten by all three independents in May (even if you added the two PHF totals together) that the new independent would beat her in the BE.

Elections with two or more independents are hard to predict. Sometimes you can get very close like I did with Boston last week or are completely off the mark with Hartlepool.

[Pete Whitehead]

The Independent candidate was a former Conservative councillor for the ward who lost his seat to an Independent in May 2010. He'd been a councillor prior to that since 1998 so i figured his personal popularity may be limited and also that a reasonable proportion of the electorate would have known him as basically a Tory which might have put off some voters who would have voted for another kind of Independent (which does appear to have happened)

[middleenglander]

Oct 26, 2012 8:15:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Incidentally has the Fenland result been verified? It seems a bit at odds with the suggestions throughout the count that the result was close and that there was a recount

Result as posted last night has been verified.

[middleenglander]

Just for fun:

South Oxfordshire, Didcot All Saints

greatkingrat 4.6 faults, strinity 5.4, tonyotim 8.2, phildav76 8.8, Andrew Teale 10.6, andyajs, Arthur Figgis & Robert Waller 12.6, David Boothroyd, Hempie 13.6, Kristofer Keane 16.6, mDibs 18.1, Mark Senior 14.6+10, Pete Whitehead 100

so on this basis the winner is phildav76 and Pete Whitehead is 12th.

As they say, just for fun.

[Pete Whitehead]

Situation rules you could say. I never did get around to doing a prediction - If I had I would certainly have predicted a Labour hold and can't imagine I would have been out by more than about 20 faults

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Pete for winning with some style.

[andrewteale]

Well called in Seaton Pete, congratulations.

[The Bishop]

Just for fun (again) - would including the S Oxon result have made any difference to the final standings??

[AdminSTB]

Congrats to Pete for the week and the month, he made a great judgement on Hartlepool especially.

Also, possibly my best week and month ever, so I feel well chuffed even in defeat.

[greatkingrat]

I am thinking of doing a one-off prediction competition for the Nov 15 elections. Clearly there are too many to predict everything so I was thinking of including

3 parliamentary by-elections
4 local council by-elections
4 PCC elections

For the council/PCC elections I will be picking areas that should be competitive to make it more interesting.

Any thoughts? Should there be more or fewer elections?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Think you mean 37 local byelections and 43 PCC elections.

The prediction competition could just be limited to picking the winners of the 100 or so elections, score one point for getting the right one, nothing for wrong, with a tiebreak based on the closest prediction of percentage majority in the Corby byelection (as this is probably the most high-profile election).

[greatkingrat]

No, the idea is we will only make predictions for the 4 elections that I choose, and the other 33 will not be part of the contest. As for just predicting winners, for most of the elections the winner is not in any real doubt anyway.

[Arthur Figgis]

I vote for a full prediction competition for all elections taking place on that day. ;D

[marksenior]

Oct 29, 2012 11:11:53 GMT greatkingrat said:

I am thinking of doing a one-off prediction competition for the Nov 15 elections. Clearly there are too many to predict everything so I was thinking of including

3 parliamentary by-elections
4 local council by-elections
4 PCC elections

For the council/PCC elections I will be picking areas that should be competitive to make it more interesting.

Any thoughts? Should there be more or fewer elections?

PCC elections will be ignored by the voters and should be ignored by us too .

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm sure the majority of us who have a vote will use it

[marksenior]

Oct 29, 2012 16:05:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm sure the majority of us who have a vote will use it

Nope I am not voting .

[stepney]

Oct 29, 2012 16:15:48 GMT marksenior said:

Oct 29, 2012 16:05:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm sure the majority of us who have a vote will use it

Nope I am not voting .

That in no way negates what Pete said.