Prediction Competition for October 2012

[middleenglander]

Looks like just 10 by-elections during October:

None on October 4th
2 on October 11th
4 on October 18th
4 on October 25th

Conservatives are defending 2 seats, both arising from the death of the sitting councillor,
Labour 2 seats, 1 death and 1 resignation
Lib Dems 3 seats, 2 from a death and 1 resignation
Others 3 seats, all resignations, 2 Independents and 1 Sutton-on-Sea First.

5 of the contests are for District Councils, 3 where the last elections were in 2011 and 2 in 2012,
2 in Unitary Councils, 1 where the last election was 2011 and 1 in 2012
1 County Council last contested in 2009, 1 a London Borough in 2010 and a Welsh Council in 2012.

Conservatives and Labour are contested all 10 seats, Lib Dems 6, Greens 4, UKIP 7 and there are 5 Independents contesting 4 seats with 2 in Boston,
in addition there is 1 Plaid Cymru candidate, a Sutton-on-Sea First, Lewisham People before Profit, Trades Unions and Socialists Against Cuts, English Democrat and a Putting Hartlepool First candidate
- a total of 48 candidates for 10 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[dibs]

EAST LINDSEY - Sutton on Sea North
SOS1st 55 CON 17 WILD INDEP 16 LAB 12

LEWISHAM - Whitefoot
LAB 30 LIBDEM 28 CON 18 LFPNP 13 UKIP 7 GREEN 4

[Khunanup]

Mine this week.

Sutton on Sea North: SoSF 56%, Con 22%, Lab 15%, Ind 7%
Whitefoot: Lab 41%, Lib Dem 35%, Con 13%, Green 5%, LFPNP 4%, UKIP 2%

[BossMan]

East Lindsey, Sutton on Sea North:
SoSF 48%
Con 23%
Ind Wild 17%
Lab 12%

Lewisham, Whitefoot:
Lab 46%
LD 27%
Con 15%
UKIP 6%
Grn 4%
PNP 2%

[marksenior]

East Lindsey

SOSF 58 Con 23 Lab 12 Ind 7

Lewisham

Lab 44 LD 25 Con 16 PNP 6 UKIP 5 Green 4

[Robert Waller]

East Lindsey, Sutton on Sea North:
SoSF 45%
Con 20%
Ind Wild 25%
Lab 10%

Lewisham, Whitefoot:
Lab 45%
LD 29%
Con 14%
UKIP 4%
Grn 4%
PNP 4%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EAST LINDSEY Sutton on Sea North: SoSF 38.3, C 27.2, Ind 20.2, Lab 14.3

LEWISHAM Whitefoot: Lab 43.2, L Dem 33.0, C 13.7, GP 3.9, LFPNP 3.4, UKIP 2.8

[Arthur Figgis]

East Lindsay, Sutton on Sixth Finger North: SoSF 49.7, C 26.9, Ind 15.2, L 8.2.
Lewisham, Whitefoot: L 51.3, LD 20.1, C 16.8, G 5.3, LFPNP 3.6, UKIP 2.9.

[Deleted]

East Lindsey, Sutton on Sea North

SOS1st 55.1
Con 23.2
Lab 11.6
Ind 10.1

Lewisham, Whitefoot

Lab 45.2
LD 29.1
Con 12.9
Green 5.1
UKIP 4.3
PNP 3.4

[hempie]

East Lindsay, Sutton on Sea North: SoSF 37, Con 29, Ind 20, Lab 14
Lewisham, Whitefoot: Lab 44, LD 29, Con 12, UKIP 7, Green 4, LFPNP 4

[greatkingrat]

EAST LINDSEY - SOS 41, Ind 27, Con 22, Lab 10
LEWISHAM - Lab 43, LD 31, Con 14, Grn 4, PNP 4, UKIP 4

[Tony Otim]

East Lindsey:
SOS1st 59.9
Con 17.9
Ind 12.4
Lab 9.8


Lewisham:
Lab 37.9
LD 32.5
Con 15.8
UKIP 6.1
Grn 4.0
LFPNP 3.7

[Philip Davies]

EAST LINDSEY - Sutton on Sea North

David ANDREWS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 22.2
Steve PALMER (Sutton on Sea First) 50.0
Joyce TAYLOR (The Labour Party Candidate) 11.1
Ian WILD (Independent) 16.7


LEWISHAM - Whitefoot

John HAMILTON (Lewisham For People Not Profit) 4.4
Janet HURST (Liberal Democrats) 24.0
Mark INGLEBY (The Labour Party Candidate) 47.0
Ute MICHEL (The Green Party) 4.0
Simon NUNDY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18.1
Paul OAKLEY (United Kingdom Independence Party) 2.5

[Pete Whitehead]

Lewisham - Whitefoot

Lab 43.9%
LD 37.1%
Con 9.2%
UKIP 3.4%
Grn 3.3%
LFPNP 3.1%


East Lindsey DC - Sutton on Sea North

SOS1 47.4%
Con 19.5%
Ind 16.9%
Lab 16.2%

[andrewteale]

SUTTON ON SEA NORTH, East Lindsey, Lincs.
Prediction: Sutton on Sea First 52 Lab 22 C 19 Ind 7

WHITEFOOT, Lewisham, S. London
Prediction: Lab 48 LD 26 C 11 Lewisham People Before Profit 6 UKIP 5 Grn 4

[Andrew_S]

EAST LINDSEY - Sutton on Sea North:
SOS1st 46
Con 25
Lab 15
Ind (Wild) 14

LEWISHAM - Whitefoot:
Lab 54
LD 20
Con 14
UKIP 6
Lewisham For People Not Profit 3
Green 3

[East Anglian Lefty]

East Lindsey DC, Sutton on Sea North

SoS 1st 41
Ind (Wild) 27
Lab 18
Con 14

Lewisham LBC, Whitefoot

Lab 49
LD 22
Con 19
LFPNP 5
UKIP 3
Green 2

[middleenglander]

Just caught up having got back from holiday earlier this evening.

16 entrants for the start of the month and unanimity with 100% Sutton on Sea First hold in East Lindsey and 100% Labour gain from Lib Dems in Lewisham.

Everyone both posted on time and added to 100%

[middleenglander]

Lewisham, Whitefoot:
hempie 14.5 faults, greatkingrat 14.9, Robert Waller 15.5, strinity 15.9, Andrew Teale 17.9, David Boothroyd & Mark Senior 18.5, Khunanup 20.7
Kristofer Keane & Tonyotim 22.5, Pete Whitehead 22.9, Dibs 26.4, phildav76 27.7, EastAnglianLefty 29.5, andyajs 34.5, Arthur Figgis 36.3

East Lindsey, Sutton on Sea North
Khunanup 7.0 faults, strinity 7.5, Dibs 11.2, Mark Senior 12.9, tonyotim 13.8, Andrew Teale 14.0, Pete Whitehead 15.3, phildav76 17.6
andyajs 17.8, Kristofer Keane 19.8, Arthur Figgis 24.0, Robert Waller 29.8, David Boothroyd 34.6, greatkingrat & hempie 37.8, East AnglianLefty 39.1

and for the week:

23.4 strinity
27.7 Khunanup
31.4 Mark Senior
31.9 Andrew Teale
36.3 tonyotim

37.6 Dibs
38.2 Pete Whitehead
42.2 Kristofer Keane
45.3 phildav76
45.3 Robert Waller

52.2 hempie
52.3 andyajs
52.7 greatkingrat
53.1 David Boothroyd
60.3 Arthur Figgis

68.6 EastAnglianLefty

Objections please by 6.00pm Saturday.

4 contests next week, predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to strinity for the week!