Prediction Competition for October 2012

[Arthur Figgis]

Caerphilly, New Tredegar: L 70, PC 22, C 8.
Fenland, St Mary's: Ind 41, C 40, L 19.
Hartlepool,Seaton: Ind 35, L 20, PHF 19.5, UKIP 12.5, C 8, LD 5.
South Oxon, Didcot All Saints: L 47.5, C 42.5, LD 10.0.
Windsor & Maidenhead, Pinkneys Green: C 42, LD 40, L 13, UKIP 5.

[marksenior]

My forecasts

Caerphilly Lab 66 Plaid 29 Con 5
Fenland Con 45 Ind 39 Lab 16
Hartlepool Ind 31 Lab 25 PHF 20 UKIP 14 Con 8 LD 2
South Oxon Con 44 Lab 43 LD 13
Windsor LD 39 Con 37 UKIP 14 Lab 10

[greatkingrat]

CAERPHILLY - Lab 68, PC 27, Con 5
FENLAND - Ind 46, Con 38, Lab 16
HARTLEPOOL - Ind 34, PHF 23, Lab 20, UKIP 9, Con 8, LD 6
SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE - Lab 48, Con 38, LD 14
WINDSOR MAIDENHEAD - LD 44, Con 37, Lab 11, UKIP 8

[Philip Davies]

CAERPHILLY - New Tredegar

Gillan JONES (Plaid Cymru The Party of Wales) 20.8
Cameron MUIR-JONES (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 4.4
Eluned STENNER (Welsh Labour) 74.8


FENLAND - St Marys

Colin GALE (The Labour Party Candidate) 19.3
Roy GERSTNER (Independent) 35.4
Gary SWAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 45.3


HARTLEPOOL - Seaton

Kelly ATKINSON (Putting Hartlepool First) 13.9
Tom HIND (UK Independence Party) 7.8
Ann MARSHALL (The Labour Party Candidate) 15.2
Shane MOORE (Conservatives) 8.8
Jim TIGHE (Liberal Democrat) 5.3
David YOUNG (Independent) 49.0


SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE - Didcot All Saints [just in case this is included!]

Andrew JONES (Liberal Democrats) 12.0
Denise MACDONALD (Labour Party Candidate) 46.9
Jane MURPHY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 41.1


WINDSOR AND MAIDENHEAD - Pinkneys Green

George CHAMBERLAINE (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5.6
Catherine HOLLINGSWORTH (Conservatives) 40.4
Patrick MCDONALD (The Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 9.4
Simon WERNER (Liberal Democrats) 44.6

[Pete Whitehead]

Hartlepool UA - Seaton

PHF 30.8%
Ind 27.7%
Lab 21.4%
UKIP 9.7%
Con 7.8%
LD 2.6%


Windsor & Maidenhead UA - Pinkneys Green

LD 42.6%
Con 42.2%
Lab 9.8%
UKIP 5.4%


Fenland DC - St Marys

Con 43.4%
Ind 41.2%
Lab 15.4%


Caerphilly CC - New Tredegar

Lab 80.1%
PC 17.5%
Con 2.4%

As it looks like everyone else has done a prediction for Didcot I may as well come up with something for there as well

[andrewteale]

Hartlepool, SEATON (Carew)
Prediction: Ind 36 Lab 26 Putting Hartlepool First 20 UKIP 8 C 6 LD 4

NEW TREDEGAR
Prediction: Lab 80 PC 19 C 1

Maidenhead, PINKNEYS GREEN
Prediction: LD 46 C 45 Lab 9

Whittlesey, ST MARYS
Prediction: Ind 43 C 42 Lab 15

DIDCOT ALL SAINTS (for fun)
Prediction: Lab 48 C 41 LD 11

[Tony Otim]

Caerphilly:
Lab 72.3
PC 19.6
Con 8.1


Fenland:
Ind 43.7
Con 40.1
Lab 16.2

Hartlepool:
Ind 46.0
Lab 17.4
PHF 16.2
UKIP 11.1
Con 5.8
LD 3.5


Windsor and Maidenhead:
Con 39.2
LD 38.4
Lab 12.6
UKIP 9.8


And just for fun, South Oxon:
Lab 44.1
Con 40.8
LD 15.1

[East Anglian Lefty]

Forgot to enter this week.

For the record, I'd expect a strong independent win in Fenland, as the recent chaos with the planning committee is apparently going down like a cup of warm sick in Whittlesey.

[greatkingrat]

Indeed, we had incinerator-gate a few weeks ago, now we have supermarket-gate

www.elystandard.co.uk/news/gallery_on_a_night_the_people_of_whittlesey_gave_their_clear_unequivocal_response_to_supermarket_gate_1_1658912

[Deleted]

My predictions for 25 October


Caerphilly

Lab 74.2
PC 21.1
Con 4.7

Fenland

Ind 49.1
Con 42.1
Lab 9.8

Hartlepool

Ind 44.5
Lab 17.8
PHF 14.3
Con 11.1
UKIP 8.2
LD 4.1

South Oxfordshire

Lab 48.1
Con 38.3
LD 13.6

Windsor & Maidenhead

LD 41.2
Con 38.9
Lab 10.2
UKIP 9.7

[Tony Otim]

A not too big indy win in Fenland, a big one in Hartlepool and Conservative win in Windsor and Maidenhead and I'm in with a chance. Lot of different choices of winners this week among the top players.

[middleenglander]

14 entries this week with nothing from EastAnglianLefty and Khunanup.
strinity gets an additional fault for adding to 101% in Fenland.

Caerphilly: 100% Labour hold
Fenland: 8 Conservatives holds with Andrew Teale, Arthur Figgis, greatkingrat, hempie, strinity and tonyotim all going for an Independent win
Hartlepool: 13 Independent holds with Pete Whitehead predicting a Putting Hartlepool First gain
Windsor & Maidenhead: 7 Conservative holds with Andrew Teale, andyajs, greatkingrat, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead, phildav76 and strinity a Lib Dem gain.

By the way 13 predictions for South Oxfordshire (excludes Pete Whitehead) with Mark Senior the only one predicting a Conservative gain from Labour.

[middleenglander]

Caerphilly, New Tredegar
Pete Whitehead 11.8 faults, Andrew Teale 14.8, Kristofer Keane 14.9, phildav76 21.3, strinity 22.5, tonyotim 26.3, David Boothroyd 30.3, Arthur Figgis 30.9, hempie 32.9, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 34.9, Mark Senior 38.9, Dibs 50.9, andyajs 60.9

Windsor & Maidenhead, Pinkney Green
Pete Whitehead 7.1 faults, phildav76 9.2, greatkingrat 11.5, strinity 11.7, Andrew Teale 15.6, Mark Senior 19.9, andyajs 21.9, Arthur Figgis 13.5+10, hempie & Robert Waller 15.5+10, Kristofer Keane 15.9+10, tonyotim 16.7+10, David Boothroyd 19.6+10, Dibs 35.9+10

[Philip Davies]

Pete's coming back at me like the Europe Ryder cup team in the Sunday Singles!

[Pete Whitehead]

I think i'm flattered by the fact that the first two results are in the seats where I didn't make duff predictions

[Pete Whitehead]

Just seen the other thread - perhaps not

[middleenglander]

Oct 25, 2012 23:12:19 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think i'm flattered by the fact that the first two results are in the seats where I didn't make duff predictions

Plus Hartlepool as well.

[Pete Whitehead]

I should have had more faith. I was worried when I saw everyone else eso certain the Independent would win that I must have been wrong

[Deleted]

Pete has surely won so congratulations to him.

[middleenglander]

Oct 25, 2012 23:19:08 GMT @strinity said:

Pete has surely won so congratulations to him.

Provisionally I make it Pete Whitehead, then phildav76 and Kristofer Keane 3rd.