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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 9:57:38 GMT
Less than a couple hundred A very very good result though. I had a good feeling about these contests, but didn’t expect West to be comfortable given Labour have won 3 out of the last 4 elections there. |
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Post by stananson on Feb 9, 2018 10:32:11 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 9, 2018 10:57:48 GMT
Less than a couple hundred A very very good result though. I had a good feeling about these contests, but didn’t expect West to be comfortable given Labour have won 3 out of the last 4 elections there. Still, repeating our result in East would have won this one. A case of slightly misallocated resources? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 11:10:44 GMT
A very very good result though. I had a good feeling about these contests, but didn’t expect West to be comfortable given Labour have won 3 out of the last 4 elections there. Still, repeating our result in East would have won this one. A case of slightly misallocated resources? The candidate in East herself was pushing a hard campaign, and she's the daughter of a popular former Mayor of the island, which is more community focused than most places. It's sort of hard to gauge the traditional Conservative-Labour split in Tophill East since this is the first time that a non-independent has won it since the early '80s, but in my experiences of both wards, I'd expect East to be more Labour leaning anyway. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 9, 2018 11:13:34 GMT
The best Tory night for a while. Apart from one of the W/P seats (which nearly split 1C/1Lab, after all) their results weren't particularly out of the ordinary. Though to get 78% against two other opponents is always nice I suppose  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 11:13:36 GMT
Yes funny one this there appears to have been a 4% swing to Lab in East and a 4% swing to Tories in West
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 11:16:34 GMT
Yes Bishop is right Tories made a gain last night similar to the week before last. They'll be pleased to have held their own and picked up a seat of course.
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 9, 2018 11:17:21 GMT
The Tophill results are very unusual in that the Conservatives did better (relative to Labour) than the county elections last May - 873 votes to Labour's 710, whereas it was 995-923 in the county division contiguous with the two wards (Greens were the only other candidates in all cases). There was a sitting Labour councillor last year though, and the new Conservative councillor for Tophill West is the county council member.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 9, 2018 11:19:49 GMT
Were the two W/P contests both all-female affairs, btw? (one looks like it definitely was, but "Kerry" is a slightly ambiguous name in this regard)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 11:24:04 GMT
Were the two W/P contests both all-female affairs, btw? (one looks like it definitely was, but "Kerry" is a slightly ambiguous name in this regard) Indeed, the Conservatives, Greens and Labour put female candidates forward for both wards (I've seen the Conservative leaflets for Kerry Baker so I'm 100% certain on that!). |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 9, 2018 13:41:12 GMT
Yes funny one this there appears to have been a 4% swing to Lab in East and a 4% swing to Tories in West That is local politics for you.. the person and the local campaign matter far more than in General Elections. Analysing the swing in 50 local by-elections might mean something outside the wards concerned.. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 9, 2018 14:30:31 GMT
Yes funny one this there appears to have been a 4% swing to Lab in East and a 4% swing to Tories in West That is local politics for you.. the person and the local campaign matter far more than in General Elections. Analysing the swing in 50 local by-elections might mean something outside the wards concerned.. Yes from what has already been said this is very much about the people coming forward for election and very little to do with the party labels- at this level it is frequently the case , but doubly so here because of the insular nature of Portland and the fact they are often voting for independents, plus the multi-party set up of W&P will increase the tendency for the voters to look to the individual more than the party. No bad thing, actually, but makes it more difficult for outsiders to assess outcomes. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 9, 2018 16:37:11 GMT
The best Tory night for a while. Apart from one of the W/P seats (which nearly split 1C/1Lab, after all) their results weren't particularly out of the ordinary. Though to get 78% against two other opponents is always nice I suppose That’s true Our prediction competition ( for all we know!) had 2 Labour wins in Weymouth as well as possible Con losses to Ind’s who had stood before in Eden and East Staffordshire |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 17:03:10 GMT
To be fair I got those results right unlike last week
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 10, 2018 0:57:29 GMT
Brighton & Hove, East Brighton - Labour hold
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2012 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 1,889 | 67.5% | +9.9% | +21.0% | +19.4% | +11.4% | +20.9% | +20.3% | Conservative | 481 | 17.2% | -2.7% | -5.3% | -5.8% | -1.5% | -4.1% | -4.7% | Green | 316 | 11.3% | +0.2% | -8.2% | -5.3% | -4.7% | -10.3% | -9.1% | Liberal Democrat | 114 | 4.1% | -0.4% | -3.8% | -4.3% | +2.0% | -3.2% | -2.8% | UKIP |
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| -5.9% |
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| -5.2% |
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| Independent |
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| -1.2% |
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| TUSC |
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| -3.7% | -3.9% | -1.9% | -3.2% | -3.6% | Total votes | 2,800 |
| 108% | 40% | 43% | 98% | 63% | 72% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 6½% since 2016 and 2012 by-elections and ~ 13% since 2015 and 2011 Council now 22 Labour, 20 Conservative, 11 Green, 1 Independent East Staffordshire, Stretton - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 764 | 42.5% | -4.6% | -2.5% | -6.3% | -7.3% | -8.8% | Independent ^ | 625 | 34.8% | +6.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 347 | 19.3% | +0.1% | -0.4% | +0.5% | -14.4% | -11.2% | UKIP | 47 | 2.6% | -0.6% | -25.0% | -21.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 14 | 0.8% | -1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -7.7% | -8.3% |
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| Popular Alliance |
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| -16.5% | -18.2% | Total votes | 1,797 |
| 111% | 39% | 42% | 60% | 66% |
^ Independent - Save Our Stretton Swing Conservative to Independent ~ 5½% since 2017 by-election Council now 26 Conservative, 12 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat Eden, Hartside - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | 2011 result | 2007 result | | Conservative | 175 | 52.9% | -3.9% | unopposed | unopposed | Independent | 98 | 29.6% | -13.7% |
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| Green | 58 | 17.5% | from nowhere |
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| Total votes | 331 |
| 43% |
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Swing Independent to Conservative ~ 5% since 2015 Council now 20 Conservative, 10 Independent, 7 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour South Staffordshire, Codsall South - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | 2015 result | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 490 | 78.8% | 2 unopposed | +17.0% | +17.4% | Labour | 82 | 13.2% |
| -2.2% | -1.4% | Green | 50 | 8.0% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -22.8% | -24.0% | Total votes | 622 |
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| 38% | 40% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 43 Conservative, 4 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP Staffordshire, Codsall - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 1,274 | 67.6% | -7.6% | +12.4% | +19.1% | Green | 329 | 17.4% | +6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 283 | 15.0% | +0.8% | -1.2% | +5.2% | UKIP |
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| -28.6% | -31.4% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -10.4% | Total votes | 1,886 |
| 61% | 66% | 49% |
Swing Conservative to Green ~ 7% since 2017 otherwise not meaningful Council now 51 Conservative, 10 Labour, 1 Independent Weymouth & Portland, Tophill East - Conservative gain from Independent
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | Conservative | 362 | 46.9% | +16.6% | +32.6% | +13.4% | +10.6% | Labour | 354 | 45.9% | +23.0% | +28.1% | +25.7% | +18.7% | Green | 56 | 7.3% | -5.3% | +2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -34.3% | -44.3% | -46.3% | -36.6% | UKIP |
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| -19.1% |
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| Total votes | 772 |
| 46% | 65% | 69% | 43% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 15 Conservative, 12 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant Weymouth & Portland, Tophill West - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 511 | 53.8% | +13.8% | +28.9% | +26.9% | +26.2% | Labour | 356 | 37.5% | -22.4% | +14.4% | +4.4% | +1.0% | Green | 82 | 8.6% | from nowhere | +1.8% | -10.4% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -21.4% |
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| Independent 1 |
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| -13.4% |
| -29.2% | Independent 2 |
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| -10.4% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -20.9% |
| United People |
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| -6.7% | Total votes | 949 |
| 89% | 39% | 74% | 88% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 18% since 2016, 7¼% since 2015, 11¼% since 2014 and 12½% since 2012
Council now 15 Conservative, 12 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 10, 2018 19:58:26 GMT
FFS Why oh why oh why do these weird deviants continue to destroy civilisation by not tweeting the RESULT? When oh when oh when are they going to learn that we want the NUMBERS and not the percentages? The percentages and swings come afterwards, not before! The worst thing is when someone tweets something like the following: "Green gain with 47.8%, Labour got 29 votes, bad result for Tories and LDs, just 5 votes between them". FAKE NEWS Greens never gain at by-elections ...  |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 10, 2018 21:03:59 GMT
They did in Cannock Chase not long ago. but it's rare It is. The usual pattern recently has been for UKIP and Green votes both to shrivel. They gain share only when they stand anew after an absence from the ballot paper. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Feb 11, 2018 19:35:44 GMT
Three gains since the general election thanks.
Hopeful of a few more in May too.
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