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Post by comicbookguy on Oct 10, 2012 12:27:14 GMT
I understand that the Christian People's Alliance are planning to stand with candidate selection this coming weekend. Is that the bunch that's led by the nutter who thinks the Welsh national flag is the work of Satan? I know there's at least two parties with "Christian" in their name, but I get these fringe groups mixed up sometimes. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2012 12:30:04 GMT
Well, looking at the constituency vote for the London Assembly in the Croydon North wards, the Greens did beat the LDs in every ward, but the LDs would still just have saved their deposit: Lab 16031 (62.8%) Con 5090 (19.9) Grn 1807 (7.1) LD 1327 (5.2) UKIP 1280 (5.0) However, for a parliamentary by-election, I'd expect the LDs to do a bit better and the Greens a bit worse. UKIP I'm not sure about. UKIP vote share could be surprisingly good or an absolute disaster. Either way, it won't be dull. Would Winston MAckenzie stand? |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 10, 2012 12:36:32 GMT
UKIP vote share could be surprisingly good or an absolute disaster. Either way, it won't be dull. Would Winston MAckenzie stand? You mean the Winston MacKenzie that is the Chairman of the Lambeth and Croydon North branch? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2012 12:47:18 GMT
I wasn't sure if he was still in the party. I thought it must be about time he had joined another party especially as he quite recently failed to be elected leader
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Oct 10, 2012 13:09:29 GMT
I understand that the Christian People's Alliance are planning to stand with candidate selection this coming weekend. Is that the bunch that's led by the nutter who thinks the Welsh national flag is the work of Satan? I know there's at least two parties with "Christian" in their name, but I get these fringe groups mixed up sometimes. Wrong one, although I think both the Christian Party and the CPA have held alliances in the past (thinking Euros IIRC). |
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Post by LewesSound on Oct 10, 2012 13:11:49 GMT
I used to live in a couple parts of this constituency, several years ago and before joining any party. There was a by-election when I lived in Bensham Manor (2007?). I understood the Green Party were rather active in the ward and had a candidate who was quite involved in the local area (I expect he may have been a bit of a one man band mind you, nice chap though).
The Lib Dems were never active in this part of Croydon and I can never recall receiving any election material from them. In both Bensham Manor and when I lived in Norwood before that. They seem to have a lack of any real base, which may hit the general election result hard. Many Lib Dem voters in this part of town would have been those who were angry with Labour while in government.
It wouldn't be a huge surprise if the Christian People's Alliance stood a candidate, they polled quite well in parts of the constituency back in the 2006 London Elections (IIRC Selhurst and Thornton Heath). I have also heard rumours the continuing SDP may put up a candidate, although I doubt this will amount to anything.
Like what has been said, I wouldn't expect the top three positions to change, and Labour could easily poll post 70%. Conservatives have pools of support in Norbury and Norwood and should easily claim second place. I am struggling to see any other party keep the deposit, although the Lib Dems would be the only likely party to do so. Greens 2-3%, nothing more, nothing less. Probably UKIP 5th with around 2%.
Anyone know if RESPECT will be looking to put up a candidate?
I may now take the plunge and join the site.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2012 17:16:16 GMT
UKIP could do better than expected simply because Tory prospects are so abysmal, a bit like in Barnsley Central.
Amazing how different this by-election is compared to Croydon North West in 1981 where Labour came third.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 17:24:51 GMT
Is that the bunch that's led by the nutter who thinks the Welsh national flag is the work of Satan? I know there's at least two parties with "Christian" in their name, but I get these fringe groups mixed up sometimes. Wrong one, although I think both the Christian Party and the CPA have held alliances in the past (thinking Euros IIRC). Yep that's right. The Christian Party (proclaiming Christs lordship) is the Rev Hargreaves lot, who occasionally join joint ticket ballot agreements with the much smaller CPA. |
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Post by stepney on Oct 10, 2012 17:48:01 GMT
Amazing how different this by-election is compared to Croydon North West in 1981 where Labour came third. Amazing how different Croydon North is compared to 1981. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2012 21:57:02 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 10, 2012 22:55:16 GMT
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Post by erlend on Oct 11, 2012 9:40:56 GMT
What about UKIP who were our challengers in Feltham. The Greens weren't that close?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2012 9:48:07 GMT
What about UKIP who were our challengers in Feltham. The Greens weren't that close? I guess the difference is that UKIP had comfortably out polled the Greens in Feltham and Heston in 2010, whereas here the Greens outpolled UKIP. The LA results from this May also suggest a stronger Green performance here, but then again UKIP are riding high in the polls and recently seem to have done better in UK by-elections, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat the Greens here. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 11, 2012 10:04:51 GMT
In terms of organisation and active membership, the Green Party is more substantial in Croydon these days than the Lib Dems. The local election results in 2010 were distorted by being on the same day as the General Election - otherwise they could well have outpolled the Lib Dems in most of the wards. The most prominent figure in the Croydon Green Party is Shasha Khan, who has worked hard for years and polled well in recent local elections with a strong personal vote - but he is by no means a "one-man band". I expect he is likely to be the Green Party candidate in the by-election, but don't assume he automatically will. The Green Party deserves to come third (ahead of the Lib Dems) but I think that is unlikely.
In 2010 the Christian Party had a candidate in Croydon North, and the Christian People's Alliance had two candidates in Thornton Heath ward (they got about 700 votes each). I expect there will be some sort of arrangement between the CP and the CPA about agreeing which one does the by-election.
The UKIP hasn't got any substantial support in Croydon North, and I don't expect them to do well. Winston MacKenzie was the UKIP candidate in Croydon & Sutton in he GLA election earlier this year, but I gather that he was imposed by the party leadership and that there was some sort of disagreement in the local party about the choice of candidate. It was noticeable that at the GLA count there were none of the usual UKIP people whom I would normally expect to see at counts. Accordingly I would expect the UKIP to come no higher than a poor fifth (way behind the Green Party) and could be outpolled by the various lefty candidates.
The Communist Party of Britain has its national headquarters in Croydon town centre (a short distance outside Croydon Norht constituency); it had a candidate in Croydon North in 2010 and about 3 or 4 candidates in the local elections in wards in the constituency - so it is likely that there will be a CPB candidate (I would guess Ben Stevenson).
As for myself, I am still very much undecided about whether I will stand. Also, I haven't heard any particular gossip "on the ground" about who might be standing for whatever parties; all I have is a bit of local knowledge about who has stood before.
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Post by nord on Oct 11, 2012 16:12:59 GMT
UKIP have the money to buy votes.
Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election expenditure
UKIP £43,855
Conservative £39,432
British National Party £3,850
Look up all the other by election expenditure from 2011 and 2012, and you will see for each, UKIP spend around £50,000.
In the Oldham by election UKIP spent £40,000 more to just win 500 more votes than the BNP.
Cost Per Vote
UKIP £21.61
Conservative £8.80
Liberal Democrat £8.47
Labour £6.60
British National Party £2.47
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 11, 2012 16:19:03 GMT
The Communist Party of Britain has its national headquarters in Croydon town centre Who else laughed? |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,842 
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Post by Crimson King on Oct 11, 2012 16:40:42 GMT
UKIP have the money to buy votes. Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election expenditure UKIP £43,855 Conservative £39,432 British National Party £3,850 Look up all the other by election expenditure from 2011 and 2012, and you will see for each, UKIP spend around £50,000. In the Oldham by election UKIP spent £40,000 more to just win 500 more votes than the BNP. Cost Per Vote UKIP £21.61 Conservative £8.80 Liberal Democrat £8.47 Labour £6.60 British National Party £2.47 If anything that shows that money doesn't buy votes |
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Post by oldhamexile on Oct 15, 2012 11:36:56 GMT
I understand that Richard Edmonds will be National Front candidate at the forthcoming Croydon North by-election.
He was NF candidate for Deptford at the October 1974 general election, polling 4.8%.
During the 1980s and 1990s he was national organiser for the BNP. In 1983 he was a paper candidate for the BNP in Lewisham East, polling 0.7%; while in 1992 he achieved the highest BNP vote of that election, 3.6%.
In the 1977 GLC elections, pretty much the peak of the NF, he polled 7.2% in Deptford, just behind the candidate of the National Party (an NF splinter group) who took 7.3%.
There was a similar split (though with far lower votes) at the subsequent (and last) GLC election in 1981, when Richard Edmonds took 2.0% in Deptford for the New National Front (effectively the John Tyndall faction of the NF, which later became the BNP), while the candidate of a rival NF faction, the Constitutional Movement, headed by ex-Conservative candidate Andrew Fountaine, took 0.4%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2012 13:09:31 GMT
Labour is aiming for the 15th November here.
Source (well, "source")
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2012 13:32:19 GMT
Political Animal is a most excellent tweeter. Recommended  |
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