Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2012 18:24:03 GMT
Has anyone thought it odd how little coverage this by-election campaign is getting, even though it's the first by-election in a Government-held seat since the last General Election? If the Tories were defending a majority between 5 and 10,000 I think there'd be a lot of interest in the by-election. Yes. A by-election in somewhere like Peterborough or Dorset South would have been interesting because the Tories would have some chance of holding on. Corby isn't as interesting because we know who's going to win. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 9, 2012 19:28:44 GMT
Has this been reported yet on here? New Corby opinion poll: Lab 51% Con 30% UKIP 9% LD 7% BNP 2% Green 1% www.comres.co.uk/polls/Peoples_Pledge_Corby_Poll_October2012.pdfSlightly odd that the question being put to voters in this poll is "If there was a general election tomorrow, would you vote..." Surely some people might vote differently in a by-election compared to a general election. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2012 20:11:35 GMT
More than slightly odd it is absurd to ask only that question - running two polls asking both about the by-election and the general election would be wortwhile. I seem to remember Robert waller in one of his Almanacs saying that polls during the Eastbourne by-election showed the Conservatives ahead when voters were asked how they would vote in a general election but a totally different outcome (as of course occurred) in the by-election. Obviously many Conservative supporters in particular are likely to cast a protest vote for Labour or UKIP or whoever in a byelection where they might still vote Conservative in a general election
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Post by the_bullies on Nov 9, 2012 20:15:24 GMT
You may be right but this section of the Midlands & also the east Midlands swung a bit more than the rest, so I would expect labour to win this seat in 2015 even if it was close.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2012 20:21:36 GMT
Nobody is disputing Labour's ability to win here in 2015 even without an intervening by-election though its very unlikely to be by that kind of margin but then they w eren't asking about 2015. No doubt that this poll gives a better indication of how people will vote in the by-election than of how they would vote in an imaginary general election tomorrow let alone in the real one two and a half years away, but why not just ask how people intend to vote in the byelection ?
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doktorb in absentia
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Post by doktorb in absentia on Nov 9, 2012 20:22:10 GMT
Chris Scotton of the United Peoples Party interview
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 9, 2012 21:28:36 GMT
More than slightly odd it is absurd to ask only that question - running two polls asking both about the by-election and the general election would be wortwhile. I seem to remember Robert waller in one of his Almanacs saying that polls during the Eastbourne by-election showed the Conservatives ahead when voters were asked how they would vote in a general election but a totally different outcome (as of course occurred) in the by-election. Obviously many Conservative supporters in particular are likely to cast a protest vote for Labour or UKIP or whoever in a byelection where they might still vote Conservative in a general election Quite. I would consider the possibility that they actually asked about the by-election but messed up their report, however. The sample size is a bit small. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 10, 2012 11:17:06 GMT
Has this uncertainty about the poll wording been cleared up??
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 11, 2012 14:34:04 GMT
Looks like another poll from Corby in the Sunday Times:
Lab 44%
Con 32%
LD 8%
Others 15%
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2012 14:40:11 GMT
Those first three figures, at least, are identical to their latest YouGov survey (that you posted on here earlier)
Erm......are you sure??
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 11, 2012 15:11:19 GMT
Those first three figures, at least, are identical to their latest YouGov survey (that you posted on here earlier) Erm......are you sure?? Bit confusing of them to put it in the middle of a report about Corby if that's true. I can't check at the moment. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 13, 2012 10:38:39 GMT
Map of the 2011 local government results in the Corby constituency:  Cartogram of those results, showing each ward in proportion to its 2011 parliamentary electorate:  Barnwell and Fineshade were unopposed. |
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Post by erlend on Nov 13, 2012 11:25:58 GMT
the Cartogram is interesting as it shows quite clearly the split in the seat. And the fact that it is balanced. It also suggests to me personally that the 2010 result was an underperformance by Louise Bagshawe. A seat that was so evenly split in 2011 should have been won easily in 2010.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 13, 2012 21:52:38 GMT
Tory MP Chris-Heaton Harris could be in trouble if this report proves to have any substance: "The Conservative MP running the party's byelection bid in Corby has been secretly filmed apparently supporting the campaign of a rival candidate.
Chris Heaton-Harris, who is campaign manager for the Tories in Corby, was recorded saying he encouraged an anti-wind farm candidate to join the election race against the Tories, adding: "Please don't tell anybody ever."
The footage, covertly recorded by the environmental group Greenpeace, captures the MP saying the independent anti-wind farm candidate, James Delingpole, had announced his candidacy as part of a "plan" to "cause some hassle" and drive the wind issue up the political agenda.|www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/13/tory-mp-corby-anti-windfarm-film |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 21:58:52 GMT
yeah just posted that on the windfarm thread. Clearly it is against all party rules but it seems a strain of Tories are now uncontrollable.
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doktorb in absentia
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Post by doktorb in absentia on Nov 14, 2012 12:30:49 GMT
Unlike the Moran case, where we know her greed began long before she was the most hungry MP for money and fiddling, this "gossip" from Corby seems to be a Greenpeace smear gone wrong. No case to answer, Ian, unlike so many greedy Labour MPs found guilty in court
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 14, 2012 14:03:26 GMT
Don't be fucking retarded. There's fairly conclusive video footage. That's not a 'smear', that's evidence. And arguing it doesn't count because Margaret Moran is corrupt is scraping the barrel even by the standards of tedious what-aboutery.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 14:07:53 GMT
indeed EAL, the case of Moran has NOTHING to do with this and is a diversion tactic.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 14, 2012 14:08:52 GMT
Come on dok - *why* is this a "smear"?? Do tell us.......
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 14, 2012 14:10:31 GMT
indeed EAL, the case of Moran has NOTHING to do with this and is a diversion tactic. Absolutely agree. Moran's case is newsworthy and there are plenty of things we could discuss about it, but none of it bears any relationship to Corby. Given what she was apparently like as a local MP, it barely even has any relationship to Luton. |
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