Corby by election

[markgoodair]

Sept 27, 2012 7:52:30 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Sept 22, 2012 10:33:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Thats quite a list now. Funny that the candidate of the Young Peopple's Party is a bloke in his 40s who's retired

Oh, good God, that nutter's resurfaced...

Tell us more!

[Arthur Figgis]

I couldn't possibly comment, but here's someone else's experiences of the man...

www.annaraccoon.com/annas-personal-stuff/libertarian-liberties/

[Deleted]

One thing is for certain - there's going to be a right mush of colours at the top of this graph after the election if all 16 or so candidates turn up

[Deleted]

Lord Ashcroft poll gives labour a whopping 22% lead

[Andrew_S]

Oct 23, 2012 6:32:16 GMT @ianrobo said:

Lord Ashcroft poll gives labour a whopping 22% lead

Full figures:

Lab 54%
Con 32%
UKIP 6%
LD 5%

conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2012/10/lord-ashcroft-labour-now-22-ahead-in-corby-by-election.html

[johnloony]

Sky has an incorrect graphic: Con 54% Lab 32%
news.sky.com/story/1001196/corby-by-election-tories-face-major-defeat

[Deleted]

Sir George Young moved the writ for Corby about two minutes ago in the House.

[Deleted]

The poll would equate to a 13% swing.

This would be bigger than Birmingham Northfield, Langbaurgh, Fulham, Monmouth and Vale of Glamorgan.

But, crucially, smaller than Staffordshire Mid, Dudley West, Staffs SE and Wirral South.

[Deleted]

So do we think tory meltdown figure is below 30% and we must get above 50% ?

[The Bishop]

Oct 23, 2012 17:41:44 GMT swanarcadian said:

But, crucially, smaller than Staffordshire Mid, Dudley West, Staffs SE and Wirral South

That is arguably only "crucial" if you think a repeat of the 1997 Labour landslide next time is a realistic proposition

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 23, 2012 17:59:57 GMT @ianrobo said:

So do we think tory meltdown figure is below 30% and we must get above 50% ?

The poll is pretty much the same as the 1997 result.

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2012 18:05:29 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 23, 2012 17:41:44 GMT swanarcadian said:

But, crucially, smaller than Staffordshire Mid, Dudley West, Staffs SE and Wirral South

That is arguably only "crucial" if you think a repeat of the 1997 Labour landslide next time is a realistic proposition

Hmm, OK, well Staffordshire Mid preceded 1992.

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2012 18:06:02 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Oct 23, 2012 17:59:57 GMT @ianrobo said:

So do we think tory meltdown figure is below 30% and we must get above 50% ?

The poll is pretty much the same as the 1997 result.

indeed and hence why I ask the question about the thresholds for good and bad results for the two parties, for once LD's no consequence here

[erlend]

I think if you can get above a 20% majority you will be able to spin it well. If you make it to 10,000 that would be psychologically convincing. To be fair that would only happen on quite a good turnout so even 7K on a poor turnout would be good. If either Con or Lab change by more than 10% (probably easier for Labour to go up by that than the Tories down (unless a good UKIP result) it will sound good for Labour.

[Rural Radical]

Wasn't the Labour majority exactly 10,000 here in 1997?

[Andrew_S]

Oct 23, 2012 19:46:00 GMT Rural Radical said:

Wasn't the Labour majority exactly 10,000 here in 1997?

You're thinking of Northampton North I think - (from memory).

[Deleted]

Corby - 11,860 1997

It was Northampton North with 10,000

[Deleted]

Corby

[Deleted]

At least one candidate has got their nominations:

yppuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/electoral-signatures-at-brigstock.html

[Andrew_S]

"Louise Mensch feared she would be trounced by Labour at the next election".

Rather begs prompts the question of what she was doing standing in a marginal seat in the first place.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9638754/Louise-Mensch-feared-she-would-be-trounced-by-Labour-her-husband-says.html