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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 29, 2017 13:53:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 14:01:26 GMT
The Conservatives don’t have any MPs in those cities anyway, unless you count Sutton Coldfield. So what further ramifications could there be? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 29, 2017 14:08:21 GMT
The Conservatives don’t have any MPs in those cities anyway, unless you count Sutton Coldfield. So what further ramifications could there be? Note the local authority graph. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 29, 2017 14:10:46 GMT
I wonder what the balance is between labour and Tory voters leaving from the capital. Arguably there are sizeable amount of both groups leaving, each with their different reasons.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 29, 2017 14:14:23 GMT
says it all really
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Post by tiberius on Dec 29, 2017 14:17:14 GMT
Is it reasonable to assume more Labour than Tory voters are leaving London, if this exodus is especially caused by being priced out of housing?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 15:37:45 GMT
Is it reasonable to assume more Labour than Tory voters are leaving London, if this exodus is especially caused by being priced out of housing? I do think the effects of gentrification for the Conservatives have been limited. Yes it turned Putney and Battersea into more Tory areas, but they’ve made no headway in Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondsey (although the 2010 result there was strong). It’s true you have wards like Clapham Common where the Conservatives hold 3/3 council seats for the first time in decades but these and their results in seats line Vauxhall in 2015 look to have been undone by brexit. |
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Dec 29, 2017 16:39:17 GMT
There already are ramifications. Many of our gains in June were in places commutable from London (Reading East, Bedford, Peterborough, Canterbury etc). |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 17:13:05 GMT
There already are ramifications. Many of our gains in June were in places commutable from London (Reading East, Bedford, Peterborough, Canterbury etc). I can account for those: Increased BME population Bedford Peterborough Increased student electorate Canterbury Reading East However a lot of these new voters may originate from London so your point still stands. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 29, 2017 20:29:57 GMT
Is it reasonable to assume more Labour than Tory voters are leaving London, if this exodus is especially caused by being priced out of housing? Yes it turned Putney and Battersea into more Tory areas. Battersea certainly but Putney has usually been quite Tory anyway, it was even held in '45 |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 20:58:49 GMT
Yes it turned Putney and Battersea into more Tory areas. Battersea certainly but Putney has usually been quite Tory anyway, it was even held in '45 Yes but. Was won by Labour in 1970 when the Conservatives won but by 2005 was capable of going Tory in an election Labour won. Battersea very nearly fell to the Conservatives in 2005 despite the fact it voted Labour in 1983. Battersea was the only seat in London where Labour’s majority was sub-Foot. Shameful! 😆 |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 21:10:10 GMT
Yes it turned Putney and Battersea into more Tory areas. Battersea certainly but Putney has usually been quite Tory anyway, it was even held in '45 Yes. A few seats held in ‘45 lost in ‘66: Exeter Hampstead High Peak Liverpool, West Derby Oxford Putney A few others. We’re now seeing Labour get close or indeed win seats they didn’t win in 1997: Canterbury is the obvious example. But sub-1997 majorities in: Chingford & Woodford Green Cities of London and Westminster East Worthing & Shoreham Etc. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 29, 2017 23:08:25 GMT
It's a bit odd how it's seemingly possible for us to be informed that 2,380 people moved from London to Southend during 2016, etc, but there haven't been any new estimates for, say, London's ethnic makeup since the 2011 census.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Dec 29, 2017 23:45:24 GMT
There already are ramifications. Many of our gains in June were in places commutable from London (Reading East, Bedford, Peterborough, Canterbury etc). I can account for those: Increased BME population Bedford Peterborough Increased student electorate Canterbury Reading East However a lot of these new voters may originate from London so your point still stands. It isn't just those factors. In the past, people who left inner London for the suburbs or the Home Counties took on the voting habits of their new neighbours, nowadays those who voted Labour when they lived in London are continuing to do so when they leave. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2017 0:09:14 GMT
It's a bit odd how it's seemingly possible for us to be informed that 2,380 people moved from London to Southend during 2016, etc, but there haven't been any new estimates for, say, London's ethnic makeup since the 2011 census. The 2021 census will be very interesting. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 30, 2017 0:13:40 GMT
It's a bit odd how it's seemingly possible for us to be informed that 2,380 people moved from London to Southend during 2016, etc, but there haven't been any new estimates for, say, London's ethnic makeup since the 2011 census. The 2021 census will be very interesting. If it happens. There was talk of it being replaced by estimates of the type that take place between censuses. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2017 0:18:42 GMT
The 2021 census will be very interesting. If it happens. There was talk of it being replaced by estimates of the type that take place between censuses. I’ll be interested to see where the biggest demographic changes have happened. I guess places like Enfield and Redbridge. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 30, 2017 14:34:44 GMT
I can account for those: Increased BME population Bedford Peterborough Increased student electorate Canterbury Reading East However a lot of these new voters may originate from London so your point still stands. It isn't just those factors. In the past, people who left inner London for the suburbs or the Home Counties took on the voting habits of their new neighbours, nowadays those who voted Labour when they lived in London are continuing to do so when they leave. I really don't think you can attribute narrow gains in a snap election - called in extraordinary circumstances and just two years after the previous one - to any predictable, long-term trend. Differential turnout on the day probably played as big a part as anything. The number of seats fundamentially changing in character and voting behaviour at any given time are relatively few, and generally take a long time to change. Long-term effects can be amplified or mitigated against by shorter-term trends, national swings, incumbancy factors and so on. That's not to say it doesn't happen - of course seats like Croydon North and Streatham have shifted markedly leftwards over the past 30 years - but in looking for answers, we are tempted to see patterns rather too swiftly and easily. |
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Post by IceAgeComing on Dec 30, 2017 17:12:24 GMT
An example of that are the seats in Brighton and Hove: despite Hove having a 20,000 majority and Kemptown having a 10,000 one it'd be silly to assume that both of those seats are anything like as safe for Labour as those majorities suggest. 2017 was an odd election and I'm always inclined to not bother listening with post-election pontificating about the long term. Reading back lots of what was written after the 2015 election is really funny because they made lots of assumptions that were wrong or didn't happen like they assumed it will. This is especially the case for the direction that they thought Labour would go in and what they'd have to do to regain lost support...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2017 17:30:24 GMT
An example of that are the seats in Brighton and Hove: despite Hove having a 20,000 majority and Kemptown having a 10,000 one it'd be silly to assume that both of those seats are anything like as safe for Labour as those majorities suggest. 2017 was an odd election and I'm always inclined to not bother listening with post-election pontificating about the long term. Reading back lots of what was written after the 2015 election is really funny because they made lots of assumptions that were wrong or didn't happen like they assumed it will. This is especially the case for the direction that they thought Labour would go in and what they'd have to do to regain lost support... I actually think Hove is. Huge swings in 1992 and 1997. A further increase for Labour in 2001. Tory vote fell in 2005 and barely moved in 2010 and 2015. Labour up 50.2% since 1983. I don’t see the Conservatives winning it back in my lifetime. Brighton, Kemptown will likely expand eastward and so could be in play in a future election but Hove can only really expand into Brighton, Pavilion where the Conservatives have been in freefall in every election since 1979! |
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