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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 7:27:47 GMT
I do think the effects of gentrification for the Conservatives have been limited. Yes it turned Putney and Battersea into more Tory areas, but they’ve made no headway in Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondsey (although the 2010 result there was strong). It’s true you have wards like Clapham Common where the Conservatives hold 3/3 council seats for the first time in decades but these and their results in seats line Vauxhall in 2015 look to have been undone by brexit. In many areas the effect has been negative. What were once middle income family homes perhaps bought relatively cheaply in the 80s or early 90s might now be houseshares of young professional renters. Household disposable income will be higher, this will bleed into the local economy thus "gentrification"; but household capital will be lower, and if lower economic security wasn't enough for the new occupiers to be Labour voters then May's kulturkampf will have been. Yes. Look at the increases for the Conservatives in Hampstead, Streatham, Vauxhall etc in 2015. All undone by May. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 7:29:57 GMT
In many areas the effect has been negative. What were once middle income family homes perhaps bought relatively cheaply in the 80s or early 90s might now be houseshares of young professional renters. Household disposable income will be higher, this will bleed into the local economy thus "gentrification"; but household capital will be lower, and if lower economic security wasn't enough for the new occupiers to be Labour voters then May's kulturkampf will have been. There must have been an enormous exodus of Tory-minded voters from a seat like Walthamstow which they won in 1987 but where Labour polled 80% in 2017. (The national Tory share in both elections was almost the same). Yes. And Ealing North where Labour got 66% in June despite losing by 15,000 votes in 1987. Another seat that saw a massive swing because of an unpopular local administration. A lot of movement to Essex etc from Walthamstow surely? |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 7, 2018 18:04:06 GMT
Some of those patterns, the Conservatives doing well in non-traditional areas like Harold Hill, Hainault, Feltham etc were already apparent in 2004. No doubt for the same reasons, but 2008 wasn't a one off Also New Addington and St Helier. Also remember in 2006 Labour had no Councillors in Ilford North. Hard to imagine now. St Helier (Merton) and Ravensbury used to be better prospects for the Conservatives than St Helier (Sutton) and Wandle Valley due to the fact the Merton wards contained some relatively well to do roads in Morden (a bit like Streatham South). This all changed in 2010 when demographic change altered this and now those wards are stronger for Labour then ever. Demographic changes are now even happening in the more middle class Lower Morden. The next census will be interesting. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 19:12:07 GMT
Also New Addington and St Helier. Also remember in 2006 Labour had no Councillors in Ilford North. Hard to imagine now. St Helier (Merton) and Ravensbury used to be better prospects for the Conservatives than St Helier (Sutton) and Wandle Valley due to the fact the Merton wards contained some relatively well to do roads in Morden (a bit like Streatham South). This all changed in 2010 when demographic change altered this and now those wards are stronger for Labour then ever. Demographic changes are now even happening in the more middle class Lower Morden. The next census will be interesting. I can think of a fair few seats that were notionally Conservative in 1992 where Labour will likely win a full house in May: Croydon North Ealing North Edmonton Hayes & Harlington Ilford South Mitcham & Morden All Outer London sears which have seen massive demographic change since the last Tory wins there. It’ll be interesting to see if Labours win the popular vote in the marginals like Chingford and Chipping Barnet. It’s going to be a terrible night for the Conservatives in London. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 7, 2018 20:33:14 GMT
St Helier (Merton) and Ravensbury used to be better prospects for the Conservatives than St Helier (Sutton) and Wandle Valley due to the fact the Merton wards contained some relatively well to do roads in Morden (a bit like Streatham South). This all changed in 2010 when demographic change altered this and now those wards are stronger for Labour then ever. Demographic changes are now even happening in the more middle class Lower Morden. The next census will be interesting. I can think of a fair few seats that were notionally Conservative in 1992 where Labour will likely win a full house in May: Croydon North Ealing North Edmonton Hayes & Harlington Ilford South Mitcham & Morden All Outer London sears which have seen massive demographic change since the last Tory wins there. It’ll be interesting to see if Labours win the popular vote in the marginals like Chingford and Chipping Barnet. It’s going to be a terrible night for the Conservatives in London. I agree I think they will be down to between 4 and 7 councils Bexley Bromley Westminster - They’ll hold this by a watermark. Kensington and Chelsea Hillingdon - Tossup? Wandsworth - I think this will go Labour by taking the remaining seats in the split wards plus winning seats in St Mary’s Park, Shaftesbury, West Hill and possibly Fairfield. Barnet to NOC - They could win seats in Chipping Barnet but fall back in Hendon. Kingston and Richmond will go Lib Dem convincingly I think with a LD full house in Twickenham. Sutton could be a possible shock Con gain of the night, there are so many wards in play to change hands and if Labour take some LD vote and the Cons swallow the UKIP vote. I could even see the LDs pushed to third in some of the Sutton and Cheam wards. They could also gain Havering or more likely do an Epsom and Ewell and have a Residents council. Lose Wandsworth, gain Sutton. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 22:26:28 GMT
I can think of a fair few seats that were notionally Conservative in 1992 where Labour will likely win a full house in May: Croydon North Ealing North Edmonton Hayes & Harlington Ilford South Mitcham & Morden All Outer London sears which have seen massive demographic change since the last Tory wins there. It’ll be interesting to see if Labours win the popular vote in the marginals like Chingford and Chipping Barnet. It’s going to be a terrible night for the Conservatives in London. I agree I think they will be down to between 4 and 7 councils Bexley Bromley Westminster - They’ll hold this by a watermark. Kensington and Chelsea Hillingdon - Tossup? Wandsworth - I think this will go Labour by taking the remaining seats in the split wards plus winning seats in St Mary’s Park, Shaftesbury, West Hill and possibly Fairfield. Barnet to NOC - They could win seats in Chipping Barnet but fall back in Hendon. Kingston and Richmond will go Lib Dem convincingly I think with a LD full house in Twickenham. Sutton could be a possible shock Con gain of the night, there are so many wards in play to change hands and if Labour take some LD vote and the Cons swallow the UKIP vote. I could even see the LDs pushed to third in some of the Sutton and Cheam wards. They could also gain Havering or more likely do an Epsom and Ewell and have a Residents council. Lose Wandsworth, gain Sutton. If things followed the GE the Conservatives would gain Sutton at a canter, and Labour would sweep to power in Wandsworth. As it stands I think Wandsworth is a tossup. Obviously Labour won it in the 2016 GLA and mayoral elections but that’s largely down to it being Khan’s patch. I think the results could be akin to 1986 in Wandsworth and Westminster but for Labour to have a narrow majority in the former. Westminster is hard because Labour’s support is so tightly packed into the northern wards (they only won one ward in Cities of London & Westminster in 2014) so they would need to make real inroads in the likes of Bayswater and Soho to have a chance of wining overall control. Hillingdon I’ve got down as a Labour gain. Clean sweep in Hayes & Harlington and enough seats in the other seats to win. Barnet could be a surprise if there’s a huge turnout among Jewish voters but I think Labour will win, just. Kingston is a straightforward LD gain. Richmond they ought to take given the GE results but harder than Kingston and Sutton to win. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 7, 2018 23:00:32 GMT
Barnet to NOC - They could win seats in Chipping Barnet but fall back in Hendon. If only that were true. Then there wouldn't be another London Exodus for me. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 23:04:39 GMT
Barnet to NOC - They could win seats in Chipping Barnet but fall back in Hendon. If only that were true. Then there wouldn't be another London Exodus for me. I wouldn’t think the Conservatives would make gains in Chipping Barnet. The seat is trending Labour and saw large swings against the Conservatives in 2015 and 2017, preceded by poor results in 2014’s locals. |
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Post by janwhitby on Jan 7, 2018 23:24:03 GMT
Where are these figures from? How does the government know where people have moved? |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 8, 2018 0:58:44 GMT
If only that were true. Then there wouldn't be another London Exodus for me. I wouldn’t think the Conservatives would make gains in Chipping Barnet. The seat is trending Labour and saw large swings against the Conservatives in 2015 and 2017, preceded by poor results in 2014’s locals. I meant Lab makes gain Chipping Barnet lose ground/remain static in Hendon. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 8, 2018 7:47:12 GMT
Where are these figures from? How does the government know where people have moved? I'd presume council tax records. Both the receiving authority and the one you've left record your movement. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 9:03:26 GMT
I wouldn’t think the Conservatives would make gains in Chipping Barnet. The seat is trending Labour and saw large swings against the Conservatives in 2015 and 2017, preceded by poor results in 2014’s locals. I meant Lab makes gain Chipping Barnet lose ground/remain static in Hendon. Oh right. That’d make some sense actually given that the Conservative majority in Hendon is 10x the size of what it was in 2010. If Barnet was lost to NOC that’d be a good result for the Conservatives all things considered. And of course Barnet voted Tory in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 so it’d actually be more of a shock if Labour did win. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Jan 8, 2018 9:42:46 GMT
It’s hard to think of Barnet having a Lab council as it strikes me a North London equivalent of Kingston. That said, unlike Sutton and Richmond there would be some potential for them in that borough if not for the Lib Dem’s.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 9:47:56 GMT
It’s hard to think of Barnet having a Lab council as it strikes me a North London equivalent of Kingston. That said, unlike Sutton and Richmond there would be some potential for them in that borough if not for the Lib Dem’s. Well I did say before the GE Corbyn-led Labour wouldn’t ain anything there and was proved right. However, the Tory lead in June across Barnet was around 3,000 votes compared to 15,000 or so in 2015, so it must be in play for Lab at least. Depends which demographics bother to vote. But Labour did lose ground in Bury South in 2016’s locals because of Livingstone so who knows. Certainly he was very helpful for the Tories in the Barnet seats and Harrow East imo. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 8, 2018 9:56:22 GMT
There is only the one Conservative seat in Brunswick Park which is vulnerable - Labour have all the other seats there and in East Barnet, Coppetts and Underhill. The other three wards are not gong to return Labour councillors.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 12:50:40 GMT
There is only the one Conservative seat in Brunswick Park which is vulnerable - Labour have all the other seats there and in East Barnet, Coppetts and Underhill. The other three wards are not gong to return Labour councillors. Ah yeah but if they lose it they lose the borough to NOC. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 12:52:11 GMT
But of course older posters will recall that the Conservatives barely held onto Wandsworth and Westminster in 1986 and there were probably people who thought Labour would gain those in 1990.
So the Conservatives could well hold on.
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