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Post by Merseymike on Dec 1, 2017 10:44:44 GMT
Yes, you are. In Labour areas your toxicity came from participating in the Tory-led government. In Tory areas, your toxicity came from voters initially seeing no real reason to vote for you when they could get much the same from voting Tory. Your results were much the same across the country irrespective of whether they were leave or Remain areas. You do well at local by-elections because of the success of local populism, and I don;t think that the minority of voters who participate in local elections are voting on the basis of Brexit at all. Either way. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2017 10:49:16 GMT
Peter Chegwyn - there's a blast from the past. Wasn't he estranged from the national party for a while in the coalition years? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 1, 2017 10:52:37 GMT
Peter Chegwyn - there's a blast from the past. Wasn't he estranged from the national party for a while in the coalition years? He was banned from being a councillor for two years by the Adjudication Panel in 2009 - having voted to make a grant to a festival he organised without formally declaring his interest. Eventually overturned it in the Courts. Was that what you were thinking of? |
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 1, 2017 11:10:09 GMT
In other words, we are an opportunistic principle-free zone Just because our principles aren’t extreme doesn’t mean we don’t have any. Similarly, the likes of Davıd Boothroyd aren’t unprincipled just because they don’t agree with you. While I disagree with Davıd Boothroyd and the right of my own party, they certainly have clear ideological principles But I don't think the LibDems as a party do. That doesn't mean that there aren't people in the party who do, but I think there isn;t enough to make a coherent whole - the glue is local populism, and for me thats not a political ideology. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2017 11:13:47 GMT
I have seen claims that the "surprise" result in Gosport was significantly influenced by opposition to a proposed housing development.
Not knowing the details I won't claim "nimbyism" or anything, but it does raise the question of whether the local Labour party was asleep if it was such a live issue?
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 1, 2017 13:37:42 GMT
I was going to post here saying that we would probably win all four but decided not to bother to avoid the flak in the meantime!
The Liberal Democrats are of course in terminal decline...must be true because some people here say so...
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Dec 1, 2017 13:45:43 GMT
Nah. I would be amazed if even one voter in Bridgemary switched to the LibDems because they don't agree with Brexit! Gosport was a 64% Leave vote, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't higher in that ward. Odd statement. I'd guess the support for Brexit in Gosport is under 60% now, giving at least 40% who could've voted LibDem because of Brexit. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2017 13:56:06 GMT
Which is the odder statement?
While no one could be sure that not a single voter would have been swayed by the European issue, one thing that became amply clear in my years as a pollster was that many people have always voted Liberal (Democrat) regardless of their policies.
I have said here before that when one looked at LD voters in the crosstables they were often the most anti-European, anti-immigrant and pro capital punishment.
There is a lot of 'a plague on both the main houses' and also response to activism on purely local issues.
Finally, everyone who comes on here should be wary of assuming that 'ordinary' ('normal') voters are as politically 'aware' as they are.
I for one would be surprised if 40% of the Bridgemary electors know that the LDs are ant-Brexit!
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Dec 1, 2017 13:58:09 GMT
It wouldn't entirely surprise me if some Lib Dem staffers came to the same conclusion as Adrian, though. "We are winning because people are learning to love Europe", etc, etc. Surely they can't be that naive? There have been a small number of people who now regret voting leave, but at the same time, others are very much hardened in their motivation to do so, and there is still a feeling that now we have made the decision, we need to get on with it.... And even if there is a shift away from wanting to leave should it become obvious that there will be negative economic impact, I don't think we have ever 'loved the EU', and thats why Leave won. We've never really felt in the centre of the European project - its something quite hard to put one's finger on, but its there as a mentality The mood has shifted quite a bit since the vote. After 40 years of the EU as bogeyman, the coverage has tilted in the EU's favour, and the benefits of membership and the problems of leaving have become real. The misengineered vote has become little more than a trap - you're right that most people feel democratically bound to carry out the result, but how they really feel will be revealed in how they vote in the next election. The Tories, as the Party of Brexit, will lose. Labour will also struggle because of Brexit and Corbyn, but may win by default. |
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 1, 2017 14:07:20 GMT
Surely they can't be that naive? There have been a small number of people who now regret voting leave, but at the same time, others are very much hardened in their motivation to do so, and there is still a feeling that now we have made the decision, we need to get on with it.... And even if there is a shift away from wanting to leave should it become obvious that there will be negative economic impact, I don't think we have ever 'loved the EU', and thats why Leave won. We've never really felt in the centre of the European project - its something quite hard to put one's finger on, but its there as a mentality The mood has shifted quite a bit since the vote. After 40 years of the EU as bogeyman, the coverage has tilted in the EU's favour, and the benefits of membership and the problems of leaving have become real. The misengineered vote has become little more than a trap - you're right that most people feel democratically bound to carry out the result, but how they really feel will be revealed in how they vote in the next election. The Tories, as the Party of Brexit, will lose. Labour will also struggle because of Brexit and Corbyn, but may win by default. I'm very critical of the Government's version of Brexit, and their utter incompetence in taking it forward, but I'm not an uncritical Remainer either However, I am not convinced that the mood has shifted as much as you think. I think the realities of leaving may have hit home with some people - my father-in-law, a convinced Leaver, doesn't think it will happen. But he'd still vote to leave. It may influence some votes next time, but thats very dependent on when the election is and where the land lies at the time. if we have already left, then I think the agenda might be very different. However, I think what many remainers don't get is that there are a significant number of leave voters whose decision is not based on rational consideration, but on how they feel about the EU and our being part of it. And that itself may be based on how they feel about their lot. Giles Fraser, a left-wing leaver, related a tale of how one woman he knows pointed out to him that she had so little already, she couldn't really see what benefits the EU was supposed to have brought her. And this is the story for much of our post-industrial and coastal territories. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2017 14:23:50 GMT
While all these opinions are being spouted about how/whether the 'Brexit' mood has changed, try a little evidence: ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9940I recommend scrolling down to 'Bregrets - there are a few, but then again, too few to mention'. |
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spqr
Non-Aligned
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Post by spqr on Dec 1, 2017 15:16:25 GMT
Nah. I would be amazed if even one voter in Bridgemary switched to the LibDems because they don't agree with Brexit! Gosport was a 64% Leave vote, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't higher in that ward. Odd statement. I'd guess the support for Brexit in Gosport is under 60% now, giving at least 40% who could've voted LibDem because of Brexit. Most polls show that the proportion supporting Leave has barely budged since the vote last year, despite the desperation on the part of some to see evidence of 'buyer's remorse'. Considering that, I would doubt the support in Gosport has changed all that much either, regardless of the Lib Dem vote. Edit: See also Robert Waller's post above. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 1, 2017 17:15:34 GMT
Yes, you are. In Labour areas your toxicity came from participating in the Tory-led government. In Tory areas, your toxicity came from voters initially seeing no real reason to vote for you when they could get much the same from voting Tory. Your results were much the same across the country irrespective of whether they were leave or Remain areas. You do well at local by-elections because of the success of local populism, and I don;t think that the minority of voters who participate in local elections are voting on the basis of Brexit at all. Either way. As someone who has campaigned in Brexit areas post-referendum, both nationally and at local by-elections, I know that our Brexit position has been toxic among some groups of voters, including people who had been previous voters. But of course I bow to your superior knowledge ... 🙄 |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Dec 1, 2017 17:16:45 GMT
Just because our principles aren’t extreme doesn’t mean we don’t have any. Similarly, the likes of Davıd Boothroyd aren’t unprincipled just because they don’t agree with you. While I disagree with Davıd Boothroyd and the right of my own party, they certainly have clear ideological principles But I don't think the LibDems as a party do. That doesn't mean that there aren't people in the party who do, but I think there isn;t enough to make a coherent whole - the glue is local populism, and for me thats not a political ideology. The glue of our members and activists is not local populism, it is liberalism. Your problem is that you cannot understand that the glue is a non-economic issue. |
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 1, 2017 17:19:38 GMT
I think liberalism is pretty meaningless and too wide-ranging to make any sense as an ideology. There are people on here who call themselves liberals who have widely differing views and many of them are not LibDems.
And local populism is often anything but liberal!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 1, 2017 18:20:41 GMT
We're anti-Tory and anti-Labour because we think both of them were wrong. We think both of them miss the point through their origins as class warfare parties and their respective allegiances to either unfettered free market or state interventionist dogma as a solution to not only the economy but everything else too. That may come as a shock to people who think that our job is to act as a Trojan Horse for Labour, taking the Tories on in places Labour is weak: well, tough shit. The latter approach would be a sight more cynical. We face different ways in north v south because that is the nature of the strengths of the bigger parties - we don't shape the battleground, sadly. Incidentally, the reason we are traditionally strong in the West Country and "Celtic fringes" because as this north v south shorthand shows, the big two barely acknowledge they exist let alone have a clue as to what is needed there or even what the rest of the country could learn from them. (Same is to seem extent true of the SNP.) In other words, we are an opportunistic principle-free zone Oh do at least try, Mike. Parroting this stuff every time is pointless and tedious. No, opting out of your dogmatic rubbish doesn't make us unprincipled, we just have principles that might actually be relevant to the modern world. Your party was founded to give representation to the working class - which it doesn't, never has much, and is now virtually meaningless in C21st society; was allied to the Trade Union movement, which is dead; and espoused mildly Marxist economics and nationalisation of heavy industry. Since all of those principles are in the bin what exactly are these famous principles you keep going on about? What do you lot really believe in these days? Apart from the Tooth Fairy and Father Christmas when it comes to the cost of borrowing. |
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 1, 2017 18:37:46 GMT
Thats easy. Democratic socialism. And while there are differences of emphasis it's certainly less vague a concept than liberalism....
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 1, 2017 19:02:10 GMT
I have seen claims that the "surprise" result in Gosport was significantly influenced by opposition to a proposed housing development. Not knowing the details I won't claim "nimbyism" or anything, but it does raise the question of whether the local Labour party was asleep if it was such a live issue? Bridgemary North is next door to Stubbington in Fareham where we made a similarly convincing gain a couple of weeks ago. Development, and particularly overdevelopment, is a massive issue in the South East Hants area at the moment due to the intense population density and the creaking infrastructure for which there's little prospect of any real improvement despite the pressure of mandated development. As for Gosport Labour, I think the County result from May for Bridgemary tells you what kind of state they're in... |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2017 23:35:56 GMT
I went to bed early last night and have been out most of the day, so just seen these results. They were a surprise and they are emphatic but may not be very significant?
Firstly.....Congratulations to my LD friends and the LD Team. It would be churlish not to recognize a damn fine night for you all. Well done. You must have been given a good feeling by this despite last week? It was a clean sweep with gains all round.
What does it portend? Difficult to say....Yet. I think the collapse of the UKIP vote and probably of the UKIP effort and even the UKIP capacity to campaign at all, must have had an influence. You seem more soundly placed to be the receptacle for the protest once again.
But the results are good enough to suggest it to be more than just protest votes. I really do doubt that the LD stance on Brexit is well known and understood enough to more than a very marginal influence. You are further forward in the recovery from Coalition taint.
Could it just be that it was a rather favourable 4-seats that just happened to have a good LD team this year and better than average candidates, this week, and some local issues to damage the former holding party? Could it be a rather productive joint one-off happy event for you?
Enjoy it whilst you may! Well done chaps.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 2, 2017 0:54:20 GMT
I have seen claims that the "surprise" result in Gosport was significantly influenced by opposition to a proposed housing development. Not knowing the details I won't claim "nimbyism" or anything, but it does raise the question of whether the local Labour party was asleep if it was such a live issue? Bridgemary North is next door to Stubbington in Fareham where we made a similarly convincing gain a couple of weeks ago. Development, and particularly overdevelopment, is a massive issue in the South East Hants area at the moment due to the intense population density and the creaking infrastructure for which there's little prospect of any real improvement despite the pressure of mandated development. As for Gosport Labour, I think the County result from May for Bridgemary tells you what kind of state they're in... And yet the Lib Dems came out the other week saying they will build more houses - your website even features a petition for the government to build more. You might say overdevelopment is an issue specific to South Hampshire, but in local parties up and down the country the campaign tactics are exactly the same. Where exactly do the Lib Dems want to build hundreds of thousands of extra homes? |
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