Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 17:52:13 GMT
When all is said and done. The SNP would've won it in a FPTP election. And they won Perth & North Perthshire in June, much to my dismay. So be careful before you use words like 'toxicity'. When all's said and done the SNP had just 32.1% of the first preferences, and under FPTP that will only give you a win if the opposition is freakishly split. And @boogieeck is right about SNP transfer toxicity: against the Conservatives they lost the by-election 2381-2227, against the Lib Dems they would have lost the by-election 2600-1932 (according to the preference profile). That suggests that if this had been a FPTP contest Unionist tactical voting could have come into play to stop the SNP. True. I'm not defending them just saying the Nats have a bit further to fall Scotland-wide. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 24, 2017 18:23:18 GMT
1745 is a number that tends to bode ill for the Nats and well for the Unionists. ouch. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 24, 2017 18:35:48 GMT
yes must be down to the qualities of the respective candidates and campaigns, the Conservative ones as much as the Green ones. Interesting that on our prediction competition the two Green predictors, hempie and greenrobinhood, thought the Greens would win both of these, whereas a number of us thought they would only manage one. Picked the wrong one , unfortunately  Yes, I thought they had a better chance in Stroud, but went for a Labour gain in Stroud- way off with that one I have to say that I had no idea what the result would be in Chalford, partly because while I did my share of leafletting I didn't do any canvassing. There were quite a lot of resources put into the thing by standards of a council by-election - I saw stakeboards for the Greens and Conservatives (which is not something you generally see for council by-elelctions), plenty of evidence of leafletting - I saw the leaflet Labour put out before they had even got a candidate in place and thought it was pretty good. The Conservative candidate seemed to be able to spend all day on social media or canvassing. We of course put up our first candidate here for some years and put out a reasonable number of leaflets (albeit not the glossy colour varieties that Conservative and Labour had - I didn't see any for the Green material.) The final result is a bit of a microcosm of the wider Stroud electorate IMO - i.e. a Tory campaign can get c. 40% of the vote relatively easily and with a bit of oomph can push that up to 45% or so; the rest of the electorate is not especially strongly attached to either of the Labour, Green or LD parties but will give any of them a go. Beating the Tories is largely about getting yourself established as the leading opponent - anyone who can mobilise the anti-Tory vote (as David Drew has done at Parliamentary level) can put together a winning coalition but if there is no front runner the Conservative will always be favourite. EDIT: PS: I haven't checked this out, but my impression is that the previous UKIP vote share here was higher than in neighbouring wards such as Minchinhampton or Bisley. That may have been a factor in a strong Conservative result with no UKIP standing. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 25, 2017 9:33:08 GMT
My twitter feed is full of guff from Murdo about Perth and from Willie Young about Rutherglen but nothing from the SNP about their now universal transfer toxicity except one cybernat frothing about this unfair system of transfers. Except that the SNP got the biggest share of Green votes, and much more direct Labour transfers than the Tories did (though I haven't checked how many came to the Tories via the Lib Dems). That didn't matter much in Perth, because it's Perth, but in most of Scotland the Tories need a strong unionist vote to win, and it does not appear that the Labour vote prefers the Tories to the SNP by anything approaching a substantial margin. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 25, 2017 11:25:33 GMT
Inquiring at the Elections Centre reveals that Labour have never won Chalford, though the LibDems (+ predecessors) managed it a couple of times.
Though they only just missed out in 1995, when there was a glorious 4 way pile up (LD 473 C 461 Lab 441 Gr 415)
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Post by froome on Nov 25, 2017 14:14:32 GMT
Inquiring at the Elections Centre reveals that Labour have never won Chalford, though the LibDems (+ predecessors) managed it a couple of times. Though they only just missed out in 1995, when there was a glorious 4 way pile up (LD 473 C 461 Lab 441 Gr 415) No doubt followed at the next elections by Lib Dem leaflets tailored to each party voter saying 'Lab/Con/Green can't win here'.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2017 14:19:53 GMT
Inquiring at the Elections Centre reveals that Labour have never won Chalford, though the LibDems (+ predecessors) managed it a couple of times. Though they only just missed out in 1995, when there was a glorious 4 way pile up (LD 473 C 461 Lab 441 Gr 415) No doubt followed at the next elections by Lib Dem leaflets tailored to each party voter saying 'Lab/Con/Green can't win here'. It was actually a Lib Dem defence in 1995 so was damn near a Tory gain (pretty unusual in 1995). The following year the same Tory candidate did win the seat and with a similarly small margin and share of the vote (though this time it was a Tory defence) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 25, 2017 20:13:40 GMT
The Labour vote tends to not transfer This is a bold statement to make when commenting on a by-election in which 60% of the Labour vote did transfer. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,907
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 28, 2017 10:28:36 GMT
The Labour vote tends to not transfer This is a bold statement to make when commenting on a by-election in which 60% of the Labour vote did transfer. Ah but why let small details like actual figures get in the way of our assumptions... 😉 |
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