andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2017 10:37:14 GMT
Completely opposite fortunes in the Con v Green contests in Herefordshire and Stroud. yes must be down to the qualities of the respective candidates and campaigns, the Conservative ones as much as the Green ones. Interesting that on our prediction competition the two Green predictors, hempie and greenrobinhood, thought the Greens would win both of these, whereas a number of us thought they would only manage one. Picked the wrong one , unfortunately  Yes, I thought they had a better chance in Stroud, but went for a Labour gain in Stroud- way off with that one |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 24, 2017 10:41:35 GMT
So this is how ellie reeves has been spending her free time since losing her seat on the NEC That and replacing Jim Dowd as MP for Lewisham West and Penge. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 24, 2017 10:57:32 GMT
PERTH AND KINROSS Perth City South
Pauline LEITCH (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 1,780
Audrey COATES (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1,734
Liz BARRETT (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1,597
Tricia DUNCAN (Scottish Labour Party) 314
Elspeth MACLACHLAN (Scottish Green Party) 102
Denise BAYKAL (Independent) 25
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 24, 2017 11:06:04 GMT
Transfers. Quota 2,777
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6
LEITCH 1,780 + 1 1,781 + 32 1,813 + 70 1,883 + 344 2,227 -2,227 -
COATES 1,734 + 4 1,738 + 6 1,744 + 18 1,762 + 619 2,381 + 482 2,863
BARRETT 1,597 + 4 1,601 + 26 1,627 + 106 1,733 -1,733 - -
DUNCAN 314 + 5 319 + 13 332 - 332 - - -
MACLACHLAN 102 + 3 105 - 105 - - - -
BAYKAL 25 - 25 - - - - -
Non transferrable + 8 8 + 28 36 + 138 174 + 770 944 +1,745 2,689
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2017 11:21:02 GMT
Completely opposite fortunes in the Con v Green contests in Herefordshire and Stroud. yes must be down to the qualities of the respective candidates and campaigns, the Conservative ones as much as the Green ones. Interesting that on our prediction competition the two Green predictors, hempie and greenrobinhood, thought the Greens would win both of these, whereas a number of us thought they would only manage one. Picked the wrong one , unfortunately The interesting thing about Chalford is surely how it was so close in 2016 when it had been invariably safe for the Tories long before that? You might suspect a factor was "split ticket" voting given that 3 seats were up for grabs then, which maybe makes something of a reversion to type now a bit less surprising. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 24, 2017 11:24:20 GMT
yes must be down to the qualities of the respective candidates and campaigns, the Conservative ones as much as the Green ones. Interesting that on our prediction competition the two Green predictors, hempie and greenrobinhood, thought the Greens would win both of these, whereas a number of us thought they would only manage one. Picked the wrong one , unfortunately Yes, I thought they had a better chance in Stroud, but went for a Labour gain in Stroud- way off wihth that one I think you're missing the fact that last time the Cons had 3 candidates lab 2 and greens 1. So the Greens and Labour probably shared a lot of voters meaning both were starting from an artificially inflated position. Still, that said, it's still a bit of a disappointing result for us, but herefordshire more than makes up for that. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 12:03:36 GMT
That doesn't add up to your previous totals? No.....I got the total from a different source and the votes for each candidate from the ERO's note pad Sorry about that.....I was keen to get the result to you |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 24, 2017 12:07:50 GMT
From Charlie Elphicke twitter
Many congratulations to Cllr Peter Jull elected for DoverDC St Margaret’s Ward with 750 votes to 314 to Labour. A strong endorsement for the hard work of our constituency team.
I make that
C 70.5%
Lab 29.5 %
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 24, 2017 14:14:39 GMT
yes must be down to the qualities of the respective candidates and campaigns, the Conservative ones as much as the Green ones. Interesting that on our prediction competition the two Green predictors, hempie and greenrobinhood, thought the Greens would win both of these, whereas a number of us thought they would only manage one. Picked the wrong one , unfortunately The interesting thing about Chalford is surely how it was so close in 2016 when it had been invariably safe for the Tories long before that? You might suspect a factor was "split ticket" voting given that 3 seats were up for grabs then, which maybe makes something of a reversion to type now a bit less surprising. Do a straight swap of UKIP and Lib Dems and the result isn't that far off the result in the predecessor ward of the same name in 2015. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 24, 2017 14:41:17 GMT
The interesting thing about Chalford is surely how it was so close in 2016 when it had been invariably safe for the Tories long before that? You might suspect a factor was "split ticket" voting given that 3 seats were up for grabs then, which maybe makes something of a reversion to type now a bit less surprising. Do a straight swap of UKIP and Lib Dems and the result isn't that far off the result in the predecessor ward of the same name in 2015. So the Lib Dems picked up a load of Kippers? Sounds a bit fishy to me. |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 24, 2017 15:17:31 GMT
Do a straight swap of UKIP and Lib Dems and the result isn't that far off the result in the predecessor ward of the same name in 2015. So the Lib Dems picked up a load of Kippers? Sounds a bit fishy to me. In most places that would be quite plausible (generic protest vote going to the most prominent "anti-establishment" party). Here, given the local prominence of the Greens, that explanation is not as plausible as it normally would be. Compared to 2015 (which, due to boundary changes, may or may not be reasonable) it's more likely there's been UKIP->Tory and Tory->Lib Dem. Compared to 2016 you could make a decent case that changes have been mostly UKIP->Tory and Green/Labour split three ways. But, in any case, my point was that the Tories, Greens, and Labour are in more-or-less the same place they were in the predecessor ward two years ago, the main difference between the two sets of figures is which fourth party ended up with the rest of the votes. Precisely what combination of churn and boundary changes ended up with that result is, as always, highly debatable. But it's certainly possible to read the result as a return to the single-candidate status quo after an unusual multi-candidate election. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 24, 2017 15:28:05 GMT
Cotswold, Grumbolds Ash & Avening - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | | Conservative | 420 | 64.7% | -6.8% | Liberal Democrat | 136 | 21.0% | -7.6% | Labour | 93 | 14.3% | from nowhere | Total votes | 649 |
| 42% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative 0.4% since 2015 Council now 22 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat Dover, St Margaret's at Cliffe - result awaited | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 750 | 70.5% | +17.7% | +19.2% | -1.1% | -1.1% | Labour | 314 | 29.5% | +7.6% | +7.3% | +1.1% | +1.1% | UKIP |
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| -25.4% | -26.5% |
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| Total votes | 1,064 |
| 39% | 41% | 61% | 62% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 5% / 6% since 2015 but Conservative to Labour ~ 1% since 2011 Council now 25 Conservative, 18 Labour Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 | | Green | 471 | 45.3% | +13.9% | Conservative | 299 | 28.8% | -39.8% | Liberal Democrat | 251 | 24.1% | from nowhere | Labour | 19 | 1.8% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,040 |
| 54% |
Swing Conservative to Green ~ 27% since 2015 Council now 28 Conservative, 10 Its Our County, 8 Independent, 4 Green, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 No Party Leicester, Eyres Monsell - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 556 | 53.2% | +10.6% | +9.8% | -9.0% | -8.8% | Liberal Democrat | 320 | 30.6% | +23.1% | +23.6% | +10.8% | +11.1% | Conservative | 170 | 16.3% | -1.9% | +0.2% | -1.8% | -2.3% | UKIP |
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| -25.8% | -26.9% |
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| Green |
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| -6.0% | -6.6% |
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| Total votes | 1,046 |
| 31% | 34% | 46% | 48% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 6¼% / 7% from 2015 if meaningful and ~ 10% since 2011 Council now 52 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat NeathPortTalbot - Bryncoch South - Plaid Cymru hold | Party | 2017 B votes | 2017 B share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | | Plaid Cymru | 525 | 49.5% | +4.5% | +3.3% | +0.4% | -0.7% | Labour | 306 | 28.8% | +4.5% | +5.1% | -22.1% | -21.0% | Conservative | 105 | 9.9% | -9.5% | -8.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 92 | 8.7% | +3.3% | +3.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 33 | 3.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -5.8% | -6.1% |
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| Total votes | 1,061 |
| 56% | 59% | 63% | 68% |
Swing Plaid Cymru to Labour 0% / ~ 1% since May but Labour to Plaid Cymru 11¼% / 10¼% since 2012 Council now 43 Labour, 15 Plaid Cymru, 5 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 24, 2017 15:28:15 GMT
Perth & Kinross, Perth South - Conservative hold at final stage based on first preferences | Party | 2017 B votes | 2017 B share | since 2017 |
| since 2012 * | since 2007 * | SNP | 1,780 | 32.1% | +6.3% |
| +4.5% | +9.3% | Conservative | 1,734 | 31.2% | +6.0% |
| +10.0% | +4.8% | Liberal Democrat | 1,597 | 28.8% | -5.9% |
| -2.7% | -7.3% | Labour | 314 | 5.7% | -0.7% |
| -5.4% | -6.3% | Green | 102 | 1.8% | -1.2% |
| -2.7% | from nowhere | Independent | 25 | 0.5% | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
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| -5.0% |
| -4.2% | -2.9% | Total votes | 5,552 |
| 80% | | 111% | 83% |
* slightly different previous boundary Negligible swing Conservative to Labour, if meaningful, since May - on slightly different boundaries SNP to Conservative 2¾% since 2012 but Conservative to SNP 2¼% since 2007 Council now 17 Conservative, 15 SNP, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Labour South Lanarkshire, Rutherglen Central & North - Labour hold based on first preferences | Party | 2017 B votes | 2017 B share | since 2017 | | Labour | 1,173 | 38.5% | +7.5% | SNP | 836 | 27.4% | -12.0% | Liberal Democrat | 554 | 18.2% | +8.9% | Conservative | 368 | 12.1% | -4.2% | Green | 88 | 2.9% | -1.1% | UKIP | 28 | 0.9% | from nowhere | Total votes | 3,047 |
| 59% |
Swing SNP to Labour 9¾% since May Council now 25 SNP, 19 Labour, 14 Conservative, 5 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Stockton on Tees, Parkfield & Oxbridge - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 727 | 54.7% | +2.2% | +8.9% | +9.3% | +15.8% | +13.0% | Conservative | 409 | 30.8% | -1.1% | +3.7% | +3.9% | +9.2% | +9.9% | Independent | 156 | 11.7% | from nowhere | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -1.8% | Liberal Democrat | 37 | 2.8% | -2.9% | -2.7% | -2.6% | -2.4% | -2.5% | UKIP |
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| -9.9% |
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| Green |
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| -8.1% | -8.3% |
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| Libertarian |
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| -1.7% | -1.7% |
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| Stockton |
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| -21.9% | -18.6%
| Total votes | 1,329 |
| 117% | 38% | 39% | 65% | 70% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 1¾% since 2016 by-election, 2½% / 2¾% since 2015 and 3¼% / 1½% since 2011 Council now 30 Labour, 13 Conservative, 10 Localists, 3 Independent Stroud, Chalford - result awaited amended for slightly revised voting figures | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" |
| since 2015 * | since 2014 * | since 2012 * | | Conservative | 751 | 45.1% | +12.9% | +12.8% |
| -2.3% | +5.1% | -7.2% | Labour | 427 | 25.6% | -2.0% | -1.3% |
| +3.0% | +7.1% | -1.0% | Green | 341 | 20.5% | -7.5% | -7.9% |
| +1.2% | -4.4% | -0.6% | Liberal Democrat | 146 | 8.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -12.2% | -12.4% |
| -10.6% | -15.9% |
| TUSC |
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| -0.8% |
| Total votes | 1,665
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| 58% | 58% |
| 41% | 76% | 92% |
* slightly different ward boundaries Swing Labour to Conservative 7½% / 7% since 2016 but Conservative to Labour ~ 2½% since 2015, ~ 1% since 2014 and ~ 3% since 2012 - Green to Conservative 10¼% / 10½% since 2016 and 4¾% since 2014 but Conservative to Green 1¾% since 2015 and 3¼% since 2012 Council now 22 Conservative, 18 Labour, 8 Green, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 None-Group Conservative Wakefield, Wakefield West - Labour hold amended for slightly revised voting figures | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 1,118 | 49.7% | +0.7% | +7.2% | +3.5% | +6.6% | Conservative | 933 | 41.5% | +11.3% | +12.6% | +14.3% | +8.9% | Yorkshire | 152 | 6.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 46 | 2.0% | -4.1% | from nowhere | -3.2% | from nowhere | Green |
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| -10.2% | -5.0% | -15.5% | -6.7% | TUSC |
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| -4.5% | -1.2% | -5.8% |
| UKIP |
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| -22.3% |
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| English Democrat |
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| -17.6% | Total votes | 2,249 |
| 71% | 38% | 69% | 67% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 5¼% since 2016, 2¾% since 2015, 5½% since 2014 and 1¼% since 2012 Council now 53 Labour, 7 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 UKIP
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Post by froome on Nov 24, 2017 15:29:36 GMT
Yes, I thought they had a better chance in Stroud, but went for a Labour gain in Stroud- way off wihth that one I think you're missing the fact that last time the Cons had 3 candidates lab 2 and greens 1. So the Greens and Labour probably shared a lot of voters meaning both were starting from an artificially inflated position. Still, that said, it's still a bit of a disappointing result for us, but herefordshire more than makes up for that. Yes the 2016 result inflated our and Labour's vote in Chalford, and this is just a reversion to the norm in what should be a safeish Conservative seat. We are still in a position to challenge for this next time round. |
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Post by stananson on Nov 24, 2017 16:42:49 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 16:44:46 GMT
My twitter feed is full of guff from Murdo about Perth and from Willie Young about Rutherglen but nothing from the SNP about their now universal transfer toxicity except one cybernat frothing about this unfair system of transfers. When all is said and done. The SNP would've won it in a FPTP election. And they won Perth & North Perthshire in June, much to my dismay. So be careful before you use words like 'toxicity'. |
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Post by stananson on Nov 24, 2017 16:51:46 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 24, 2017 17:15:42 GMT
My twitter feed is full of guff from Murdo about Perth and from Willie Young about Rutherglen but nothing from the SNP about their now universal transfer toxicity except one cybernat frothing about this unfair system of transfers. When all is said and done. The SNP would've won it in a FPTP election. And they won Perth & North Perthshire in June, much to my dismay. So be careful before you use words like 'toxicity'. When all's said and done the SNP had just 32.1% of the first preferences, and under FPTP that will only give you a win if the opposition is freakishly split. And @boogieeck is right about SNP transfer toxicity: against the Conservatives they lost the by-election 2381-2227, against the Lib Dems they would have lost the by-election 2600-1932 (according to the preference profile). That suggests that if this had been a FPTP contest Unionist tactical voting could have come into play to stop the SNP. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 24, 2017 17:26:50 GMT
Details from Rutherglen:
First preferences: Lab 1173 SNP 836 LD 554 C 368 Grn 88 UKIP 28
Top 3: Lab 1270 SNP 884 LD 711
Final: Lab 1541 SNP 989
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 24, 2017 17:38:18 GMT
My twitter feed is full of guff from Murdo about Perth and from Willie Young about Rutherglen but nothing from the SNP about their now universal transfer toxicity except one cybernat frothing about this unfair system of transfers. At stage 5 transfers attracted: Con 647 SNP 447 Neither of them 1745Not sure either side should be throwing words around like transfer toxicity on those figures... |
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