Honduras General Election 2017

[Deleted]

Honduras goes to the polls on November 26th for Presidential and Congressional Elections. The Presidential Election is Single Round. Juan Orlando Hernández of the Partido Nacional is running for a second term. Salvador Nasralla ran for the Anti-Corruption Party last time and finished in fourth place. This time he is the candidate of the  Partido Libertad y Refundación and is presently polling in second place. The other major party candidate is Luis Orlando Zelaya of the Partido Liberal.

Full candidate list here

www.tse.hn/nominas2017/

Latest poll from Cid Gallup from September



criterio.hn/2017/09/21/partido-liberal-libre-descalifican-encuesta-cid-gallup/

[Deleted]

Oct 6, 2017 17:22:57 GMT @pjones said:

Salvador Nasralla ran for the Anti-Corruption Party last time and finished in fourth place. This time he is the candidate of the Partido Libertad y Refundación (aka Libre) and is presently polling in second place.

He is not just the candidate of Libre (the parliamentarian arm of the Frente Nacional de Resistencia Popular (FNRP), the broad alliance of parties and grass roots organizations against the removal of Liberal turned leftist president Manuel Zelaya), but also the Socal Democratic Partido Innovación y Unidad (PINU). They call their alliance the Opposition Alliance against Dictatorship (Alianza de Oposición contra la Dictadura) and he is running under that banner.

Worth mentioning he is an ex-tv star as well as former CEO of Pepsi in Honduras (and of Lebanese descent on his fathers side).

[Deleted]

Voting is today

Allegations of vote fraud being made in the Economist

IN THE days leading up to Honduras’s contentious national election on November 26th, one might expect to see candidates tossing bags of beans from pickup trucks and party workers handing out benefit cards. Such methods to sway poor voters have been used before by the National Party of Juan Orlando Hernández, who is running for re-election as president. Opposition parties have used the same techniques, which are frowned upon but not illegal.

Allegations of outright vote-rigging are widespread in Honduras but difficult to prove. The Economist has obtained a recording that, if authentic, suggests the ruling party has plans to distort results in the upcoming elections. Hondurans will be voting in congressional and municipal elections as well as the presidential one.

Roughly two hours long, the recording appears to be of a training session for members of the National Party who will be manning voting tables at polling stations on election day. The Economist received the recording from a participant. At the outset of the session, the woman leading it asks participants to hand over their mobile phones, saying, “Estamos en confianza, somos todos nacionalistas” (“this stays between us; we’re all National Party members”). She identifies herself as an employee of the government.

She reminds the trainees that they have attended a previous training session and that they have been handpicked through a rigorous process. “Today is Plan B,” she then announces. “Plan B means we’re on the offensive.” It appears to be a scheme for fraudulently boosting the vote of the National Party at the expense of its rivals.

Juan Diego Zelaya, the secretary of the National Party, said he was unaware of “Plan B” or of any training sponsored by his party on how to commit electoral fraud. “Our training sessions correspond to what is mandated by electoral law,” he says. He doubts the authenticity of the tape, but said he would investigate whether such a session took place.

www.economist.com/news/americas/21731725-recording-obtained-economist-suggests-it-may-be-merits-investigation-hondurass

Frankly I'd be sceptical of the authenticity of the tape myself but who knows. I expect it will be brought up by the opposition if they lose today.

[Deleted]

With 57.19% of precincts counted its:

Nasralla 45.17
JOH 40.21
Zelaya 13.77

resultadosgenerales2017.tse.hn

[Deleted]

The rural votes are starting to come in and its getting close.

74.1% of precincts counted.

Nasralla 42.74% 1,051,062
JOH 41.62% 1,023,617

So just 27,000+ between them

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2017 8:47:37 GMT @odo said:

So just 27,000+ between them

76.72% of precincts counted now (this takes forever)

Nasralla 42.68% 1,086,677
JOH 41.71% 1,061,822

Less than 25,000 between them.

[Deleted]

Most of the remaining votes are said to be from pro-Nasralla areas, so it should be a Nasralla victory (unless there is rigging going on). 

[Deleted]

The Nationals retain control of Congress. Some dirty deals are being undertaken and the election results seem to be held hostage. 

"Behind closed doors, the parties of Hernandez and Nasralla were discussing immunity from prosecution for current officials and carving up positions in government, two diplomats told Reuters on Tuesday." 

www.voanews.com/a/protesters-gather-in-honduras-election/4142296.html

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2017 16:42:37 GMT @odo said:

Most of the remaining votes are said to be from pro-Nasralla areas, so it should be a Nasralla victory (unless there is rigging going on). 

So far that doesn't seem to hold up. Nasralla only leads by 3,826 at 80.8%. Still the "unless there is rigging going on" caveat might apply.. 

[Deleted]

At 82.9%  JOH has taken over the lead and is now 2,911 votes ahead of Nasralla.  

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I thought he had enough to do running Queensland

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2017 0:00:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I thought he had enough to do running Queensland

My beloved countryman with the Fionian roots and the feminist aunt who loved him died in 2005. This is a different JOH. I could call him Orlando, but that also has certain problematic connotations, and no media calls him anything but JOH in Honduras. 

[Foggy]

Nov 30, 2017 0:00:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I thought he had enough to do running Queensland

Do keep up! There have been quite a few general elections in that state since he retired, including one just last week that is likely to result in a continued Labor government, which I'd have thought you'd be pleased about.

The actual election this thread is meant to be about is beginning to sound like a stitch-up. 

[Deleted]

Nasralla claims there are unsigned 'actas' from precincts he has won, but the electoral commission has excluded from the count, and others the government have manipulated. He. has declared himself president-elect of Honduras. 

The official count has once again stalled. It now has JOH on 21,859+ at ca. 86.7% of precincts counted, but I doubt it matters anymore. JOH is going to win, but the opposition will not accept it, and some amount of violence will follow. 

[Deleted]

With 90.4% of precincts counted its: 

JOH 42.68% 1,270,484
Nasralla 41.60 1,238,200

With a 32,000+ difference at this stage it seems certain that JOH will win the official count. 

(not sure there is any point in updating this given that its almost certainly rigged..)

[Deleted]

Stuck for a long time at 94.3% of precincts counted.  

JOP 42.92% 1,333,143
Nasralla 41.42% 1,286,414

So nearly 47,000 votes between them in the official count. 

[Deleted]

The opposition alliance supporting Nasralla has issued this communiqué:

As a condition for accepting the final results the opposition demands acces to see:

a) the total list of actas under special observation and/or counting
b) the more than 5000 actas irregularly scanned
c) the complete archive of the electoral databases, all information on the internal control interfaces, access to the software etc.

Protests ongoing in the capital and major cities with assorted violence, looting and police brutality against demonstrators. 

The OAS and EU monitoring missions have urged everybody to keep calm (neglecting that this is Central America ) and wait until 100% of the actas have been counted and uploaded to the system. But its clear that the government is trying to play for time and delay the official declaration of results for as long as possible until they have figured out how to get the situation under control, so the opposition is unlikely to heed that advice. 

[Deleted]

The government has implemented at curfew from 6pm to 6am for the next ten days and suspended all constitutional liberties, anyone who breaks the curfew will be detained without trial. The electoral "results" will no doubt be declared at some point during the coming days, but they will obviously have been manipulated and therefore be of limited interest. 

[Deleted]

Nasralla has called for new presidential elections under control of an international tribunal.

[Deleted]

With 99.24% of actas counted the official result is now:

JOH 42.98%
Nasralla 41.39%

So there is no longer room for going back to the "backroom talks" and arrange a negotiated Nasralla victory (he is allowed to win in exchange for giving amnesty to the outgoing administration). Though, it has ofc been clear for a while now that the regime was going to steal this outright.