CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 10, 2017 12:02:38 GMT
Frankly, I think its not advisable to go down the 'Winning Here!' style of campaigning in any case, but will the local voters care? Don't think so. As long as you're honestly representing recent results and not misleading the voters I don't see any problem with it. Obviously the tactic is only necessary for smaller parties who need to break through the "a vote for you is a wasted vote" mindset, and there can't be many places where that would be a problem for Labour. A lot more than you'd think. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2017 15:39:20 GMT
According to the EC calculations Labour have a higher share of the vote in Oxhey Hall than in Hayling while the Lib Dems have a higher share of the vote than in Hayling than in Oxhey Hall. I think that tells us about all we need to know I know, it is all fun. I still would like to know how what criteria they use to make these guesses/estimates, beyond p!ain guessing. Well they are based on local election results which is all any of us can do. The problem is the way that data is treated. In some areas, particularly in eg. Met boroughs where all wards tend to be contested by all parties and there are not lots of Independents this is relatively straightforward - the general election voting patterns are going to follow similar lines to local voting patterns. Where there is not such strong coverage by all parties and/or where Independents are dominant then the data needs to be finessed. In one of the recent cases we were discussing, in Shoreham this brought to light a problem with the way the data was treated because the Independent vote in Marine ward led EC to massively overstate the votes for both UKIP and the Green party in that ward. In this case the problem is with how you treat wards that are divided between constituencies and where EC are treating wards as electorally homogeneous. In many cases this might be a correct approach and there may be no alternative but in this case it results in an outcome that is clearly very wrong. Basically in working out the results for the part of Oxhey Hall & Hayling which is in Watford (Oxhey hall) and the part which is in SW Herts (Hayling) he has treated both as if they vote like Oxhey Hall & Hayling overall when the results at the start of this thread for the two previously separate wards show they have a very different electoral history (and the parish election results from 2015 also show this). So you end up with the result in Oxhey Hall vastly overstating Labour support and the result for Hayling vastly understating it (with knock on consequences for all the other wards in the respective constituencies) but then the aggregate result for the whole ward ends up not too far from the truth because the error in one part cancels out the error in the other |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,914
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Post by YL on Oct 10, 2017 19:34:37 GMT
It's just about the Sheffield ward I know least well, but I thought I'd say a bit about Beighton. It has a fair amount in common with Mosborough, its neighbour to the south, which of course was won by the Lib Dems in a by-election not so long ago. However, unlike Mosborough, there's no history of Lib Dem challenges in Beighton; before the rise of UKIP the Tories tended to come second, and following their decline in Hallam it was one of their best wards in the city (e.g. in 2008 they got 31%, better than anywhere other than Dore & Totley). Then UKIP took over as the main anti-Labour option in east Sheffield, they started to come second, and the Tories fell away. The Tories did quite well in June in Sheffield SE, and this would be their best ward in the constituency and again one of their best two or three in the city. I don't think they'll come close to winning with things as they are at the moment, but a strong second place seems likely, maybe back to about where they were in 2008. Trees won't be that big an issue here compared with inner west Sheffield. I will be very surprised if the Tories come any better than third in Beighton. I'm sure you know more about what's going on here than I do, but if you're right I'd say that would be a pretty poor result for them, given the history of the ward and the South East result in June. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 10, 2017 19:35:16 GMT
As far as I can see Electoral Calculus is not pretending to predict local Election results anyway? The predict how local wards would vote if there was a general election tomorrow, and how they did vote in June. They use prior local election results as one of the factors in this calculation.
EC MIGHT give a reasonably accurate prediction of a local election result in wards where the Lib Dems (for example) do badly at local elections. But where the Lib Dems campaign in a local election they will generally do much better than the General election vote in the same ward, taking votes off both the main Parties to a variable extent... For election predictors, EC may well tend to get the order of Labour and Tory votes the correct way round... But previous local elections are probably a much better guide!
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 10, 2017 19:44:37 GMT
I will be very surprised if the Tories come any better than third in Beighton. I'm sure you know more about what's going on here than I do, but if you're right I'd say that would be a pretty poor result for them, given the history of the ward and the South East result in June. Scouring the internet fails to reveal much sign of campaigning by anyone! That was not the case in the Mosborough by-election last year... |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 11, 2017 1:00:41 GMT
Take this one with as much salt as you like...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2017 9:49:59 GMT
I will be very surprised if the Tories come any better than third in Beighton. I'm sure you know more about what's going on here than I do, but if you're right I'd say that would be a pretty poor result for them, given the history of the ward and the South East result in June. The Conservatives won’t come close anywhere in Sheffield - maybe when they’re next in opposition. They ought to do better in the Sheffield city wards of Penistone & Stocksbridge but UKIP absorbed many of their votes. I just can’t see the Conservatives winning anything in Sheffield. I do think they’ll get back onto Rotherham council though. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 11, 2017 11:02:59 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 11, 2017 12:05:31 GMT
and very welcome too!
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 11, 2017 12:44:06 GMT
This is crap Nichola Sinclair is standing for the Liberal Democrats not UKIP. I should know as i am her agent. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2017 13:11:58 GMT
This is crap Nichola Sinclair is standing for the Liberal Democrats not UKIP. I should know as i am her agent. Obviously a typo since the correct information is listed below Probably doens't merit quite such a vociferous response |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2017 13:31:48 GMT
Its always annoying when people get something you know about personally wrong, but I agree this was a simple "fingerfehler" (as the Germans say) and that was a touch OTT.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 11, 2017 13:35:16 GMT
This is crap Nichola Sinclair is standing for the Liberal Democrats not UKIP. I should know as i am her agent. I hope you spelt her name correctly on the nomination paper. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 11, 2017 15:27:41 GMT
He's so strict!
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 11, 2017 15:58:34 GMT
We should all be grateful for getting the Previews a few hours earlier than lately, but I hope that wasn't at the expense of proofreading time. Its a very obvious typo which I doubt caused many people confusion as read in context it was obvious what was intended, and I seem to manage to make a lot of booboos of that sort, so it lets us know that Andrew is human and fallible like the rest of us- he's usually so immaculate.
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 11, 2017 18:46:45 GMT
This is crap Nichola Sinclair is standing for the Liberal Democrats not UKIP. I should know as i am her agent. Sorry about that Mark. I'll ask Britain Elects to correct it. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Oct 12, 2017 21:59:13 GMT
Inverurie counts tomorrow.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 12, 2017 22:06:05 GMT
Beighton is apparently about 45-25-20 (Lab-LD-Con)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2017 22:07:18 GMT
Inverurie counts tomorrow. Ought to be a straightforward Tory win. Interesting looking at the list that the Conservatives have no Councillors in Morley & Outwood. Beighton will be interesting too. |
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Post by mattb on Oct 12, 2017 22:22:08 GMT
Oxhey Hall & Hayling
LD 672
Con 461
Lab 428
UKIP 35
Grn. 31
T/o 30.9%
LD gain from Con
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