Angolan General Election

[Devil Wincarnate]

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/19/angola-elections-jose-eduardo-dos-santos-marxism-crony-capitalism-mpla

[Deleted]

Aug 20, 2017 12:39:52 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/19/angola-elections-jose-eduardo-dos-santos-marxism-crony-capitalism-mpla

Angola’s ruling family is worth billions. What happens when dad steps down?

[Deleted]

Since Devil made a thread I will repost a slighly edited OP from another forum:

Angola will hold general elections on 23 August with five parties and a coalition contesting the 220 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. 130 seats are elected by PR using national party lists, and 90 seats in 18 five-seat constituencies.



The three old rival independence movements still dominate (well, two of them do..), but there are also other minor players in the elections (mostly ethnic minority and - thus - federalist), which will be the country's fourth since independence from Portugal in 1975. The others being 1992 - followed by a massacre on the UNITA leadership and 2nd round of the civil war between MPLA and UNITA, 2008 and 2012.

MPLA, ruling ex-Communist former independence movement, becoming as corrupt and "neoliberal" as such movements usually are.

Ethnic parties:

UNITA, former anti-Communist (and before that pro-Chinese...) independence movement - mainly representing the Ovimbundu people (36% of the population).
FNLA, former anti-Communist independence movement, representing the Bakongo people in the north (13% of the population).
Partido de Renovação Social (PRS), representing the Chokwe people, which dominates in the Lundas - the epicenter of the Congo refugee crisis.

Others:

Aliança Patriótica Nacional (APN), new party led by ex-civil servant and current MP Quintino Moreira (an Ambundu) and founded as a re-creation of his dissolved Nova Democracia-União Eleitoral (ND-UE) coalition. He has also previously led Movimento Para Democracia de Angola (MPDA). Its SG is Teka Ntu, a social worker who has lived for 32 years in Essen in Germany. Focusing on fighting hunger and poverty, anti-corruption and creating an independent judiciary. The old opposition parties claim APN are "controlled opposition" created by MPLA to split the opposition vote, APN claim they are "the party of the new generation" and aim to take power in 2022 after "balancing the 2017 parliament" (= preventing MPLA from getting an absolute majority). They also claim that their campaign is mainly financed by their alleged 300,000 members + "donations" and contributions from their leaders; they seem to have real money (either from the regime or foreign donors). Clearly the most interesting element in this election.

CASA-CE (Convergência Ampla de Salvação de Angola – Coligação Eleitoral), a nominally Social Democratic and federalist alliance under UNITA defector Abel Chivukuvuku (59) including the micro parties Partido de Aliança Livre de Maioria Angolana (PALMA), Partido Nacional de Salvação de Angola (PNSA), Partido de Apoio para Democracia de Angola (PADA), Partido Nacional de Angola (PNA), Partido Democrático para o Progresso de Aliança Nacional Angolana (PDP-ANA) and Bloco Democrático (BD).


# Kimbundu is a language, the ethnic group speaking it are called the Ambundu, making up 25% of Angola's population and are its 2nd largest people. Ambundu means Northern Mbundu and Ovimbundu Southern Mbundu. The two groups are closely related and their languages are mutually intelligible.

Angola is a large and important country with a strategic location, a tradition of projecting its influence abroad (both in the Congos and earlier Namibia), and significant military and natural resources, but its an "electoral type event" in the sense that the opposition can not win and the government will (ab-)use state resources at will. Though the votes will count.

The president is the #1 candidate on the winning party's national list, which means the MPLA's lead candidate Minister of Defence João Lourenço is certain to become the next president and replace Eduardo dos Santos (74), one of the longest ruling leaders in Africa (in power since 1979).

Lourenço has kicked off his campaign by promising to cut taxes for foreign investors - especially in backwards regions - hoping to create jobs for a rapidly growing youth population, stating that the key to settling the unemployment problem rests with growing the private sector, while also promising to create more jobs in the public sector to secure 1st jobs for school leavers.

In addition the security situation in the remote NE Lunda provinces where 500 refugees cross the border every day and rebels from Kasai in DRC pursue deserters from the Congolese military and policy across the border and have attacked Angolan army posts will play a role (even if the opposition ca not challenge the government directly on this). The Angolan army, which was considered one of the most powerful in the region not long ago, is currently in bad shape, and even more so its military intelligence service. On Dos Santos initiative the MPLA majority in parliament has banned the new president from replacing the leading officers and intelligence chiefs for eight years (and since the chief of the military intelligence is increasingly bonkers, that is quite problematic). 

[Deleted]

Reposting a bit more.

Background article from DW. Also mentions the power struggle that is likely to erupt within MPLA when dos Santos dies of cancer (he is allegedly on his last leg), given that his family and cronies have been placed everywhere (its going to be hard for his children to keep their enormous business empires for long when he is gone - though I am sure Isabel will find a way to stay filthy rich).

"This time, too, the opposition will not get enough votes," journalist Jose Adalberto told DW, "the opposition is fragmented and has no strong leadership. It does not seem to be able to transmit its message intelligibly."

"Unfortunately, even in 2017, there can be no talk of equal chances," said Teka Ntu whose party, the National Patriotic Alliance (APN), was founded only two years ago. "All parties are equal but the MPLA is more equal than the others and that has always been the case," he said. Ntu, who is in charge of foreign policy at the APN, has been living in the German city of Essen for over 10 years. He took extra holiday for the election campaign. Many opposition parties simply lack money to put up a fight against the MPLA. They do not have money to pay for advertising, candidates' transport, helpers on the campaign trail or even small gifts for potential voters.

"It is very sad that the opposition could not win 50 out of 220 parliament seats in any election so far," Ntu told DW in an interview. "What we have at the moment is a parliamentary dictatorship and it has to end."

(...)

"Now campaigning has begun and the ruling MPLA has promised to create 500,000 new jobs in a move to win over the country's impoverished and frustrated youth. For its part, the opposition UNITA has promised the introduction of a minimum wage of 500 US dollars (429 euros) per month. CASA-CE wants a major political reform and local elections."

[Deleted]

As long as dos Santos is alive (or rather functioning..) he remains leader of MPLA with the right to recall Lourenco as MP, and thus also president. To keep that threat viable he has appointed Bornito de Sousa, who hates Lourenco, as Vice President.

Some observers have argued power could split after the election with Lourenco controlling the security apparatus and the presidency (with fewer executive powers) and Dos Santos controlling the oil economy, relations to investors and foreign policy.

Parliament has passed a law that prevent the new president from firing the heads of the army, police and intelligence services for eight years (incl. Ze Maria...).

Yet given that Dos Santos by all accounts is terminally ill Lourenco will probably try to take control of the MPLA when Dos Santos is gone and challenge his family's stranglehold on the economy.

[Deleted]

Rafael Marques de Morais, journalist and leader of the activist NGO Maka Angola, on the situation.

1. Angola is at a turning point. The country needs reforms of both the economy and governing institutions in order to develop.
2. Both the economy and the state have been deeply corrupted under Dos Santos.
3. Corruption and paralysis in the decision making bodies hinder national development.
4. Hardly any of the nation's wealth filters down to the poor.

www.makaangola.org/en

twitter.com/makaangola?lang=en

[Deleted]

Polling African elections is inherently difficult both due to logistics and lack of reliable info about the electorate (pollsters usually use very large samples trying to compensate for this, often with limited success), but the election has been polled:

Newest one from 10 August by Brazilian pollster Sensus, Pesquisa e Consultoria with a whooping sample of 9,155:

MPLA 38%
UNITA 32%
CASA-CE 26%
Others 4%

angola24horas.com/index.php/em-cima-da-hora/item/10716-sondagem-eleitoral-mpla-fica-atras-da-oposicao

Earlier the Jean Piaget Institute in Benguela and Instituto Sol Nascente have made two polls ("using techniques from Universidade Católica Portuguesa"). First one published 28/7 with a 5,724 sample:

36% MPLA
14% CASA-CE
12% UNITA
15% Others
23% Undecided

The second was published 6/8 contacting the same respondents (but no info on how many answered)

36% MPLA
28% CASA-CE
22% UNITA
3% Others
11% Undecided

If these polls are remotely reliable APN has flopped and the traditional opposition is doing remarkably well.

[Deleted]

Devil Wincarnate I think you should change the title to "Angolan General Election", its a parliamentary election with the lead candidate of the winning party becoming president + add a poll with MPLA, UNITA, CASA-CE, APN, FNLA, and PRS (we have had polls of even more exotic elections). 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 21, 2017 9:34:24 GMT @odo said:

Devil Wincarnate I think you should change the title to "Angolan General Election", its a parliamentary election with the lead candidate of the winning party becoming president + add a poll with MPLA, UNITA, CASA-CE, APN, FNLA, and PRS (we have had polls of even more exotic elections). 

Done.

[Deleted]

The strong surge for CASA-CE is generally ascribed to them being joined by Professor Justino Pinto de Andrade's Bloco Democrático (BD) in spring. 

Justino Pinto de Andrade is director of the Faculty of Economics and Management at the Catholic University of Angola. But more importantly he is close relative of Mário Pinto de Andrade, who was the first president of MPLA and Father Joaquim Pinto de Andrade, who became honorary president of MPLA. He was arrested by the Portuguese in 1969 and detained in Cape Verde until 1974. He broke with the MPLA leadership right before independence and was imprisoned along with other members of Active Revolt (a dissident group within MPLA). Pinto de Andrade has been one of the leading political analysts of Angola for decades and had for several years a permanent column in Radio Ecclesia before he founded his own party. So a veteran democracy activist with "MPLA royalty" background. It has given CASA-CE a broader appeal and allowed to be seen as something other than "the other UNITA" (as mentioned above their founder Abel Chivukuvuku is an ex-UNITA leader. He twice contested the leadership and lost to Isaías Samakuva before he left and assembled his "coalition of dwarfs"). 

[Deleted]

Regarding the most likely outcome Miguel Gomes, who is communications director of the NGO ADRA and a former political journalist expects an MPLA result around 50-55%. He says any result below 50% would be surprising and 60%+ would indicate fraud.

The opposition naturally claim they will win and the polls resemble the culture of fear and repression, where people are afraid to state their intent to vote against MPLA. 

The campaign period ends today, and tomorrow is designated as a "day of contemplation" before the vote. 

[Deleted]

They are going to count the votes at municipal centers rather than the precincts and in rural areas the ballot boxes will be kept at the village chief's home (and they are all MPLA approved). There will inevitably be some fraud, but the question is how much.  

An ex-political prisoner has designed the Zuela app (Kimbundu for speech), which allows people to make anonymous tips about irregularities before, during and after the closing of the polls, and include video, photos, and sound in it. 

The organizer behind the project is Domingos da Cruz, a journalist and activist who was sentenced to prison for writing a book discussing peaceful methods to overthrow a dictatorial regime. The app is developed in partnership with the NGO Friends of Angola (HQ in Washington D.C.) and a team of computer students from George Mason University. Da Cruz promises it will be 100% confidential.

[Deleted]

I will wait for the final results, but the preliminary ones have MPLA above 64%, which means they were rigged (more than a little). CASA-CE is suspiciously low compared to the polls (far below UNITA). This also indicates fraud as MPLA would much prefer discredited UNITA as the leading opposition rather than a new force emerging.

Will be interesting to see what the Zuela analysts say.

[Deleted]

99% of the vote counted. 76.57% turnout, 13.8% higher than last time. 
eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/99LG/DLG999999.htm

MPLA 61.1 (-10.7) 150 (-25)
UNITA 26.7 (+8.0) 51 (+19)
CASA-CE 9.5 (+3.5) 16 (+8)
PRS 1.3 (-0.4) 2 (-1)
FNLA 0.9 (-0.2) 1 (-1)
APN 0.5 (0) = total failure for the much hyped outfit

MPLA keeps a qualified 2/3 majority, which allows them to change constitutional laws. UNITA only win a few strongholds. 

[Georg Ebner]

After the opinionPolls having delivered very contrarian numbers, counting - conducted not in precincts, but centrally - is mostly done.
Those, who want to have a look at the official numbers, can find them here:

resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

When the Portuguese declared the country's inDependence the MPLA won also, because the tribes around Luanda supported them. Though now even the official numbers admit, that the city preferred the UNITA ~62%:32%.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'd forgotten about @odo - she was tetchy as fuck and more nerdy than all the rest of us put together, but she did post some interesting shit..

[rcronald]

Aug 25, 2022 19:36:29 GMT Georg Ebner said:

After the opinionPolls having delivered very contrarian numbers, counting - conducted not in precincts, but centrally - is mostly done.
Those, who want to have a look at the official numbers, can find them here:

resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

When the Portuguese declared the country's inDependence the MPLA won also, because the tribes around Luanda supported them. Though now even the official numbers admit, that the city preferred the UNITA ~62%:32%.

What’s the likelyhood of mass fraud?

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 26, 2022 6:53:10 GMT rcronald said:

Aug 25, 2022 19:36:29 GMT Georg Ebner said:

After the opinionPolls having delivered very contrarian numbers, counting - conducted not in precincts, but centrally - is mostly done.
Those, who want to have a look at the official numbers, can find them here:

resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

When the Portuguese declared the country's inDependence the MPLA won also, because the tribes around Luanda supported them. Though now even the official numbers admit, that the city preferred the UNITA ~62%:32%.

What’s the likelyhood of mass fraud?

With their central way of counting that is hard to say.
Clear is, that the EC and the media are public - what means they belong to MPLA. The narrow outCome and UNITA's success in Luanda suggest, that they were not outright rigged (albeit the mediaCoverage was unfair).

[rcronald]

Aug 26, 2022 9:52:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 26, 2022 6:53:10 GMT rcronald said:

What’s the likelyhood of mass fraud?

With their central way of counting that is hard to say.
Clear is, that the EC and the media are public - what means they belong to MPLA. The narrow outCome and UNITA's success in Luanda suggest, that they were not outright rigged (albeit the mediaCoverage was unfair).

MPLA winning in Bié and Huambo while losing Luanda is highly sus,
lets hope we are not going to see a repeat of 92.

[Georg Ebner]

The fate of UNITA's Savimbi - initially a Maoist - was sad, especially as he seems to have been the only capable general of BlackAfrica so far.