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Post by rcronald on Aug 26, 2022 18:15:39 GMT
The fate of UNITA's Savimbi - initially a Maoist - was sad, especially as he seems to have been the only capable general of BlackAfrica so far. I personally wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stopped being a Maoist after coming to China or if he was never a Maoist in the first place tbh. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2022 9:34:31 GMT
With their central way of counting that is hard to say. Clear is, that the EC and the media are public - what means they belong to MPLA. The narrow outCome and UNITA's success in Luanda suggest, that they were not outright rigged (albeit the mediaCoverage was unfair). MPLA winning in Bié and Huambo while losing Luanda is highly sus, lets hope we are not going to see a repeat of 92. Can't claim to be an expert, but it has been suggested demographic changes are a factor in this. As for Savimbi, the most regrettable thing about his demise is that it didn't happen a lot sooner. He bears the primary responsibility for restarting the war in 1992. |
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Post by rcronald on Aug 27, 2022 12:34:20 GMT
MPLA winning in Bié and Huambo while losing Luanda is highly sus, lets hope we are not going to see a repeat of 92. Can't claim to be an expert, but it has been suggested demographic changes are a factor in this. As for Savimbi, the most regrettable thing about his demise is that it didn't happen a lot sooner. He bears the primary responsibility for restarting the war in 1992. the strongest regions for UNITA in every single election since 1992 suddenly swing strongly to the left in 2022? |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 27, 2022 14:20:01 GMT
Can't claim to be an expert, but it has been suggested demographic changes are a factor in this. As for Savimbi, the most regrettable thing about his demise is that it didn't happen a lot sooner. He bears the primary responsibility for restarting the war in 1992. the strongest regions for UNITA in every single election since 1992 suddenly swing strongly to the left in 2022? With dos Santos out, a very young electorate with no memory of the civil war era, and rampant unemployment, housing shortages and living cost crisis in the cities MPLA is going down in the big cities while holding up well in the countryside and small towns where they have strong local patron/client networks, and a message of safety and stability resonates more. MPLA have an easier time rigging the rural vote (and they've no doubt done so), but there is also little doubt that a realignment is happening with the big cities going UNITA and the rural areas becoming more MPLA friendly. ... Few people following the funeral procession of dos Santos, today, several protests against the election results scheduled in Luanda today so there'll probably be a police crackdown. |
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Post by rcronald on Aug 27, 2022 14:50:00 GMT
the strongest regions for UNITA in every single election since 1992 suddenly swing strongly to the left in 2022? With dos Santos out, a very young electorate with no memory of the civil war era, and rampant unemployment, housing shortages and living cost crisis in the cities MPLA is going down in the big cities while holding up well in the countryside and small towns where they have strong local patron/client networks, and a message of safety and stability resonates more. MPLA have an easier time rigging the rural vote (and they've no doubt done so), but there is also little doubt that a realignment is happening with the big cities going UNITA and the rural areas becoming more MPLA friendly. ... Few people following the funeral procession of dos Santos, today, several protests against the election results scheduled in Luanda today so there'll probably be a police crackdown. I agree, was just pointing out that rampant voter fraud almost certainly happened in UNITA strongholds as both regions voting to the left of many other rural regions despite being the most pro UNITA regions in every single election before 2022. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 27, 2022 19:38:38 GMT
2017 (the 2022-numbers aren't final yet):  % (left: partyVotes measured at all valid votes only; right: at all eligible votes):  %-deViations from national average:  |
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Post by rcronald on Aug 28, 2022 7:38:34 GMT
2017 (the 2022-numbers aren't final yet): % (left: partyVotes measured at all valid votes only; right: at all eligible votes): %-deViations from national average: So in 2017 MPLA got 57.26% of the vote in Bié and in 2022 it got 60.5%….. edit: even in 2012 the MPLA got about 60.7% of the vote |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 29, 2022 14:42:40 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 31, 2022 21:56:19 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 2, 2022 18:37:26 GMT
UNITA has filed a lawsuit at the Constitutional Court asking for the annulment of the election, claiming the National Electoral Commission made numerous illegal decisions after the vote and barred their representatives from filing complaints. No chance of succeeding of course.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 2, 2022 19:22:08 GMT
The tables posted above have shown it already, but for those unaware, where the different provinces are situated, i made maps comparing the deViations of 2008 with those of 2022 (the presidential elec. 1992 was unfair&unindicative, as it was basically based on which areas were controlled by which army):   HumanDevelopmentIndex/HDI 2017 (thankfully taken from wikipedia):  |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 3, 2022 5:05:51 GMT
The tables posted above have shown it already, but for those unaware, where the different provinces are situated, i made maps comparing the deViations of 2008 with those of 2022 (the presidential elec. 1992 was unfair&unindicative, as it was basically based on which areas were controlled by which army): HumanDevelopmentIndex/HDI 2017 (thankfully taken from wikipedia): Can you post a 2008-2017 map? As I suspect that the 2022 election (like 1992) is illegitimate due to mass fraud. Note: I personally like and appreciate President Lourenço, I just think that he won due to mass fraud |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 3, 2022 14:59:32 GMT
The tables posted above have shown it already, but for those unaware, where the different provinces are situated, i made maps comparing the deViations of 2008 with those of 2022 (the presidential elec. 1992 was unfair&unindicative, as it was basically based on which areas were controlled by which army): HumanDevelopmentIndex/HDI 2017 (thankfully taken from wikipedia): Can you post a 2008-2017 map? As I suspect that the 2022 election (like 1992) is illegitimate due to mass fraud. Note: I personally like and appreciate President Lourenço, I just think that he won due to mass fraud The MPLA received 81% in 2008, 71% in 2012, 61% in 2017, 51% in 2022. Thus i am not sure, that 2022 is so unique. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 3, 2022 15:13:30 GMT
Can you post a 2008-2017 map?   |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 3, 2022 15:38:21 GMT
Can you post a 2008-2017 map? Couple of 2022 results jumped out as inconsistent with prior swings: Lunda Sul,Huambo,Cuanza Norte,Bie |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 3, 2022 15:50:48 GMT
Couple of 2022 results jumped out as inconsistent with prior swings: Lunda Sul,Huambo,Cuanza Norte,Bie If we look at the Participation-table, we see, that the TurnOut fell everywhere roughly to the same extent. So the MPLA-EC either stuffed everywhere ballotPapers in or it altered the partyPreferences from UNITA/... to MPLA. (Theoretically the third possibility is, that they did not fake anything, but then the EC would have made the countingProcess transparant.) |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 3, 2022 16:09:14 GMT
Couple of 2022 results jumped out as inconsistent with prior swings: Lunda Sul,Huambo,Cuanza Norte,Bie If we look at the Participation-table, we see, that the TurnOut fell everywhere roughly to the same extent. So the MPLA-EC either stuffed everywhere ballotPapers in or it altered the partyPreferences from UNITA/... to MPLA. (Theoretically the third possibility is, that they did not fake anything, but then the EC would have made the countingProcess transparant.) I doubt they committed mass fraud, as the results in other regions are generally consistent with prior swings and even in places like Luanda the swing was higher then average like everyone expected. I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout in ancestrally anti-Dos Santos provinces like Lunda Sul and Bié was even lower then reported (mostly because of his death and Lourenço going after the Dos Santos family). |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 3, 2022 16:11:36 GMT
Historical background for the political situation in Angola in general and the founder of the opposition party UNITA in particular.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 5, 2022 20:52:51 GMT
UNITA has now released the results of their parallel count.
UNITA 3 104 222 (49.5%)
MPLA 3 023 583 (48.2%)
They claim UNITA got 347 436 votes removed during the counting while 185 825 votes were added to MPLA's tally.
The National Electoral Commission (CNE) has urged the Constitutional Court to dismiss the opposition parties' lawsuit, and claims the voting certificates presented by UNITA are duplicates with no precinct identification.
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