Prediction Competition - August 2017

[middleenglander]

There looks to be 12 by-elections during August:
* 6 on 3rd August
* 0 on 10th August
* 4 on 17th
* 0 on 24th
* 1 on 29th - a Tuesday
* 1 on 31st

10 of the by-elections are for District Councils
- 9 that had all-out elections in 2015 and 1 with annual elections
2 are in Unitary Authorities
- 1 with all-out elections in 2016 and the other in 2015

Conservatives defend 5 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 after resignations
Labour defend 3 seats, all after resignations
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat after a resignation
UKIP defends 2 seats, 1 after a death and 1 a resignation
Independent / Localist defends 1 seat after a death

With all nominations now known:
Conservatives and Labour each contest 12 seats, Liberal Democrats 10, Green & UKIP 7 whilst there are 3 Independents, 1 Yorkshire and 1 No Description
- a total of 53 candidates for the 12 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the by-election.

[clyde1998]

I think this is right...

Charnwood BC, Loughborough Shelthorpe - Lab 45%; Con 40%; Lib 10%; UKIP 5%
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, St Margarets with St Nicholas - Lab 44%; Con 42%; Lib 9%; Grn 5%
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone - Con 45%; Lib 33%; Lab 22%
Swale BC, Milton Regis - Lab 48%; Con 28%; Lib 14%; UKIP 10%
Thanet DC, Margate Central - Lab 36%; Con 31%; UKIP 15%; Lib 9%; Grn 5%; Ind 2%; NoD 2%
Worthing BC, Marine - Con 49% 50%; Lab 24%  30%; Lib 12% 14%; UKIP 10%; Grn 5% 6%

[yellowperil]

Aug 2, 2017 12:16:30 GMT clyde1998 said:

I think this is right...

Charnwood BC, Loughborough Shelthorpe - Lab 45%; Con 40%; Lib 10%; UKIP 5%
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, St Margarets with St Nicholas - Lab 44%; Con 42%; Lib 9%; Grn 5%
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone - Con 45%; Lib 33%; Lab 22%
Swale BC, Milton Regis - Lab 48%; Con 28%; Lib 14%; UKIP 10%
Thanet DC, Margate Central - Lab 36%; Con 31%; UKIP 15%; Lib 9%; Grn 5%; Ind 2%; NoD 2%
Worthing BC, Marine - Con 49%; Lab 24%; Lib 12%; UKIP 10%; Grn 5%

congratulations on getting your entries in in good time! whether they are right, time will tell, but mine are still in first draft stage and on paper only, but are so close to yours at this stage I'd almost swear you'd seen mine  - so they're probably very wrong.

[Lifeless]

I'm not 100% sure if I'm doing this right, but here I go!

Charnwood BC, Loughborough Shelthorpe
Lab 46%; Con 43%; LDem 8%; UKIP 3%

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, St Margarets with St Nicholas 
Lab 41%; Con 39%; LDem 14%; Green 6%

Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone
Con 45%; LDem 35%; Lab 20%

Swale BC, Milton Regis
Lab 48%; Con 30%; LDem 16%; UKIP 6%

Thanet DC, Margate Central
Lab 40%; Con 35%; LDem 11%; UKIP 6%; Green 5%; Ind 2%; No-Description 1%

Worthing BC, Marine
Con 48%; Lab 31%; LDem 14%; Green 7%;

EDIT: Woops, just realised UKIP isnt even in the Worthing one.

[yellowperil]

Welcome to Lifeless as yet another new contestant- I think we are always glad of the company.

[marksenior]

Charnwood Lab 49 Con 38 LD 8 UKIP 5
Kings Lynn/W Norfolk Lab 41 Con 38 LD 12 Green 9
Sevenoaks Con 45 LD 30 Lab 25
Swale Lab 42 Con 31 LD 21 UKIP 6
Thanet Lab 37 Con 33 UKIP 15 Green 6 LD 4 Ind 3 No Desc 2
Worthing Con 44 Lab 34 LD 15 Green 7

Welcome to Lifeless

[Deleted]

Charnwood Labour 47 Con 40 LibDem 10 UKIP 3
Kings Lynn/W Norfolk Con 42 Labour 40 LibDem 15 Green 3
Sevenoaks Con 48 LibDem 27 Labour 25
Swale Labour 44 Con 35 LibDem 12 UKIP 9
Thanet Labour 38 Con 35 UKIP 17 LibDem 5 Green 2 INDY 2 No Desc 1
Worthing Con 46 Lab 39 LibDem 9 Green 6

First time UKIP have contested multiple seats for a while should be some of their better areas if they can't poll half decently in Thanet especially they really are in trouble,can see a lot of third party squeeze again.

[cherrycoffin]

Charnwood LAB 44 CON 43 LIB 9 UKIP 4
King's Lynn LAB 43 CON 41 LIB 10 GRE 6
Sevenoaks CON 46 LAB 29 LIB 25
Swale LAB 42 CON 36 LIB 13 UKIP 8
Thanet LAB 39 CON 34 UKIP 16 LIB 6 IND 2 GRE 2 No Des 1
Worthing CON 42 LAB 40 LIB 10 GRE 8

[hempie]

Charnwood, Loughborough Shelthorpe: Lab 52, Con 36 LD 6, UKIP 6
Kings Lynn/W Norfolk, St Margaret's with St Nicholas: Lab 40, Con 37, LD 16, Green 7
Sevenoaks, Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone: Con 43, LD 32, Lab 25
Swale. Milton Regis: Lab 39, Con 29, LD 24, UKIP 8
Thanet, Margate Central: Lab 39, Con 30, UKIP 20, LD 5, Green 3, Ind 2, No Desc 1
Worthing, Marine: Con 46, Lab 33, LD 17, Green 4

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week:

Charnwood DC, Loughborough Shelthorpe: Labour 45, Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 8, UKIP 5.
King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, St Margarets with St Nicholas: Labour 44, Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 5.
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe, and Chiddingstone: Conservative 46, Labour 30, Liberal Democrats 24.
Swale BC, Milton Regis: Labour 44, Conservative 36, Liberal Democrats 12, UKIP 8.
Thanet DC, Margate Central: Labour 38, Conservative 33, UKIP 18, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3, Independent 2, No Description 1.
Worthing BC, Marine: Conservative 44, Labour 39, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 7.

[Robert Waller]

Charnwood, Loughborough Shelthorpe: Lab 45, Con 42 LD 8, UKIP 5
Kings Lynn/W Norfolk, St Margaret's with St Nicholas: Lab 40, Con 36, LD 11, Green 13
Sevenoaks, Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone: Con 56, LD 32, Lab 12
Swale. Milton Regis: Lab 40, Con 33, LD 17, UKIP 10
Thanet, Margate Central: Lab 43, Con 22, UKIP 18, LD 3, Green 8, Ind 4, No Desc 2
Worthing, Marine: Con 50, Lab 28, LD 16, Green 6

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CHARNWOOD Loughborough Shelthorpe: Lab 48, C 42, L Dem 6, UKIP 4
KINGS LYNN AND WEST NORFOLK St Margarets with St Nicholas: Lab 44, C 38, GP 13, L Dem 5
SEVENOAKS Penshurst, Fordscombe and Chiddingstone: C 44, L Dem 39, Lab 17
SWALE Milton Regis: C 42, Lab 35, UKIP 16, L Dem 7
THANET Margate Central: Lab 44, C 34, UKIP 10, L Dem 5, GP 4, Ind 2, no description 1
WORTHING Marine: C 54, Lab 32, L Dem 8, GP 6

[yellowperil]

Charnwood,Loughborough Shelthorpe: Lab 46, Con 42,LD 7, UKIP 5
Kings Lynn & Norfolk,StM w StN: Lab 45,Con 40, Green 10. LD 5
Sevenoaks,Penshurst,Fordscombe & Chiddingstone: Con 42, LD 35.Lab 23
Swale,Milton Regis: Lab 34, Con 30, LD 19, UKIP 17
Thanet, Margate Central: Lab 42, Con 32, UKIP 11, Green 9, Ind 3, LD 2, ND 1
Worthing, Marine: Con 48, Lab 34, LD 12, Green 6

[clyde1998]

I've edited out the phantom UKIP candidate in Worthing on mine above. Confused the list of candidates with the result from last time. 

[yellowperil]

Aug 2, 2017 12:16:30 GMT clyde1998 said:

I think this is right...

Charnwood BC, Loughborough Shelthorpe - Lab 45%; Con 40%; Lib 10%; UKIP 5%
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, St Margarets with St Nicholas - Lab 44%; Con 42%; Lib 9%; Grn 5%
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone - Con 45%; Lib 33%; Lab 22%
Swale BC, Milton Regis - Lab 48%; Con 28%; Lib 14%; UKIP 10%
Thanet DC, Margate Central - Lab 36%; Con 31%; UKIP 15%; Lib 9%; Grn 5%; Ind 2%; NoD 2%
Worthing BC, Marine - Con 49% 50%; Lab 24%  30%; Lib 12% 14%; UKIP 10%; Grn 5% 6%

Glad to see you managed to catch up with the error in Worthing. When I said it looked as though you had sight of my 1st draft on paper - yes I'd made that mistake too. You and Lifeless must have ESP. Now nobody will be handbagged by Worthing (Wildean allusion) for that error anyway

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week with Clyde1998 contributing a full house on time and Lifeless a newbie. There is nothing from Lancastrian whilst Pete Whitehead is still AWOL.

Charnwood, Loughborough Shelthorpe: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 1% (cherrycoffin) to 16% (hempie)
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, St Margarets with St Nicholas: 9 Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 2% to 6% with tiger76 Conservative gain
Sevenoaks, Penshurst etc: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 5% (David Boothroyd) to 24% (Robert Waller) both over Liberal Democrat
Swale, Milton Regis: 9 Labour gain from UKIP, majority over Conservative from 4% (Yellow Peril) to 20% Clyde1998, David Boothroyd Conservative gain
Thanet, Margate Central: 100% Labour gain from UKIP, majority over Conservative from 3% (tiger76) to 21% (Robert Waller)
Worthing, Marine: 100% Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 2% (cherrycoffin) to 22% (David Boothroyd & Robert Waller)

Oh, by the way, cherrycoffin gets1 additional fault for only adding to 99% in Swale.

[yellowperil]

I know we are a self-selecting bunch, but the recent changes in personnel have shifted the balance of the predicting panel decidedly away from the right, which is rather a pity I feel. 4 Lib Dems, 2 Greens, 1 Labour, 1 SNP and 2 non-aligned is hardly a representative sample of the Forum,let alone of the nation as a whole,not yet anyway. I know we are all trying to assess the political reality out there and not view these elections through the prism of our own viewpoint but the exercise is probably more interesting when there is a better balance of opinion. I'm sure we don't want to lose what we have already so the answer must be to recruit or re-recruit our rightward-leaning members to the panel

[finsobruce]

Aug 3, 2017 17:39:34 GMT yellowperil said:

I know we are a self-selecting bunch, but the recent changes in personnel have shifted the balance of the predicting panel decidedly away from the right, which is rather a pity I feel. 4 Lib Dems, 2 Greens, 1 Labour, 1 SNP and 2 non-aligned is hardly a representative sample of the Forum,let alone of the nation as a whole,not yet anyway. I know we are all trying to assess the political reality out there and not view these elections through the prism of our own viewpoint but the exercise is probably more interesting when there is a better balance of opinion. I'm sure we don't want to lose what we have already so the answer must be to recruit or re-recruit our rightward-leaning members to the panel

I'm not sure that any self respecting right winger would want to be the beneficiary of a quota system. Best to let the panel float free on the undulating waves of free market psephology.

[yellowperil]

Quite - I certainly wouldn't suggest a quota. Bot there is certainly an opportunity in the market at the moment.

[yellowperil]

The answer to the either/or aspect of the two Indy candidates in Margate Central-according to the council website, the Ind was the lower vote and the ND was the higher, I am disappointed to say as I had reasoned that the self-described Indy, might pick up a handful more votes than a blank,given that technically this was an Indy seat, but I was wrong.

The absurdly close result in the competition to this moment means I think in the interim I go from second to fourth as a result of the totally inconsequential distribution of a mere handful of indy votes, but all to play for as we await Kings Lynn and Swale