Byelections 13th July

[thetop]

Jul 14, 2017 9:21:38 GMT marksenior said:

Didcot South Lab 631 Con 528 LD 289
Didcot West Con 429 Lab 393 LD 172

S
L 43.6 (+12.6)
C 36.5 (+4.1)
l 20.0 (+3.7)

W
C 43.2 (+3.4)
L 39.5 (+12.6)
l 17.3 (+1.3)

[timmullen1]

Tory or SNP in Elgin, Independent excluded at Count 2, Labour at Count 1 per Moray council's Twitter.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

MORAY Elgin City North

First stage

Maria McLean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 923
Patsy Gowans (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 895
Nick Taylor (Scottish Labour Party) 365
Terry Monaghan (Independent) 124 - EXCLUDED

Second stage

Maria McLean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) +47 = 970
Patsy Gowans (Scottish National Party (SNP)) +19 = 904
Nick Taylor (Scottish Labour Party) +34 = 389 - EXCLUDED

Third stage

Maria McLean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) +91 = 1,061
Patsy Gowans (Scottish National Party (SNP)) +90 = 994

[Davıd Boothroyd]

NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Coleshill South

Symonds, Caroline (The Conservative Party Candidate) 571
Breese, Claire (Labour Party) 379

[maxque]

Jul 14, 2017 11:17:10 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Coleshill South

Symonds, Caroline (The Conservative Party Candidate) 571
Breese, Claire (Labour Party) 379

Con 60.1% (+15.4)
Lab 39.9% (+3.2)

[maxque]

Jul 14, 2017 11:13:04 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

MORAY Elgin City North

First stage

Maria McLean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 923
Patsy Gowans (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 895
Nick Taylor (Scottish Labour Party) 365
Terry Monaghan (Independent) 124 - EXCLUDED

Con 40.0% (+2.5)
SNP 38.8% (+1.6)
Lab 15.8% 
Ind 5.4% (-19.9)

[timmullen1]

Moray Council - Elgin City North by-election results

Stage 1:

Gowans (SNP) 895
McLean (Con) 923
Monaghan (Ind) 124
Taylor (Lab) 365

First preference votes at Stage 1. Under STV, Terry Monaghan is excluded.

Stage 2:

Gowans (SNP) 904
McLean (Con) 970
Taylor (Lab) 389

Total votes at Stage 2. Under STV, Nick Taylor is excluded.

Stage 3:

Gowans (SNP) 994
McLean (Con) 1061

Total votes at Stage 3. Although no candidate reached the quota, Maria McLean has the most votes at Stage 3 and is therefore elected.

SNP GAIN from Independent

[Tony Otim]

Jul 14, 2017 11:24:43 GMT timmullen1 said:

Moray Council - Elgin City North by-election results

Stage 1:

Gowans (SNP) 895
McLean (Con) 923
Monaghan (Ind) 124
Taylor (Lab) 365

First preference votes at Stage 1. Under STV, Terry Monaghan is excluded.

Stage 2:

Gowans (SNP) 904
McLean (Con) 970
Taylor (Lab) 389

Total votes at Stage 2. Under STV, Nick Taylor is excluded.

Stage 3:

Gowans (SNP) 994
McLean (Con) 1061

Total votes at Stage 3. Although no candidate reached the quota, Maria McLean has the most votes at Stage 3 and is therefore elected.

SNP GAIN from Independent

I think you mean CON gain...

[timmullen1]

Jul 14, 2017 11:26:17 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jul 14, 2017 11:24:43 GMT timmullen1 said:

Moray Council - Elgin City North by-election results

Stage 1:

Gowans (SNP) 895
McLean (Con) 923
Monaghan (Ind) 124
Taylor (Lab) 365

First preference votes at Stage 1. Under STV, Terry Monaghan is excluded.

Stage 2:

Gowans (SNP) 904
McLean (Con) 970
Taylor (Lab) 389

Total votes at Stage 2. Under STV, Nick Taylor is excluded.

Stage 3:

Gowans (SNP) 994
McLean (Con) 1061

Total votes at Stage 3. Although no candidate reached the quota, Maria McLean has the most votes at Stage 3 and is therefore elected.

SNP GAIN from Independent

I think you mean CON gain...

I do indeed; brain freeze, sorry.

[La Fontaine]

So the cons got 91 Lab transfers and the SNP 90.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 14, 2017 12:37:34 GMT La Fontaine said:

So the cons got 91 Lab transfers and the SNP 90.

And both were comfortably beaten by non-transferrable votes.

[middleenglander]

Middlesbrough, Ayresome - Labour hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Labour	414	59.7%	+13.6%	+14.3%
Conservative	252	36.3%	+23.3%	+21.7%
Liberal Democrat	15	2.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	13	1.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP			-20.9%	-23.5%
Independent			-20.1%	-16.5%
Total votes	694		32%	36%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~4¾% / 3¾% since 2015

Council now 31 Labour, 10 various Independent, 5 Conservative

Middlesbrough, Park End & Breckfield - Independent hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Independent	505	56.9%	+6.7%	+3.2%
Labour	302	34.0%	-8.2%	-3.6%
Conservative	59	6.6%	-0.9%	-2.0%
Green	12	1.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	10	1.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	888		38%	43%

Swing Labour to Independent ~ 7½% / 3½% since 2015

Council now 31 Labour, 10 various Independent, 5 Conservative

Moray, Elgin City North - Conservative gain from Independent
- based on first preference votes

Party	2017 B votes	2017 B share	since May 2017
Conservative	923	40.0%	+7.0%
SNP	895	38.8%	+6.1%
Labour	365	15.8%	+3.8%
Independent	124	5.4%	from nowhere
Independent Councillor			-14.9%
Other Independent			-7.4%
Total votes	2,307		64%

Swing SNP to Conservative ~ ½% since May

Council now 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 7 Independent, 1 Labour

North Warwickshire, Coleshill South - Conservative hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Conservative	571	60.1%	+15.4%	+14.2%	-3.1%	-3.3%
Labour	379	39.9%	+3.2%	+5.3%	+3.1%	+3.3%
UKIP			-18.6%	-19.5%
Total votes	950		51%	53%	89%	90%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 6% / 4½% since 2015 but Conservative to Labour ~ 3¼% since 2011

Council now 21 Conservative, 13 Labour, 1 Independent

South Oxfordshire, Didcot South - Labour hold
amended Labour vote 631 not 621

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Labour	631	43.6%	+12.5%	+13.1%
Conservative	528	36.5%	+4.1%	+3.7%
Liberal Democrat	289	20.0%	+3.6%	3.3%
UKIP			-20.3%	-20.1%
Total votes	1,448		31%	33%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 4¼% / 4¾% since 2015

Council now 33 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Resident

South Oxfordshire, Didcot West - Conservative hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Conservative	429	43.2%	+3.4%	+3.5%
Labour	393	39.5%	+12.6%	+13.5%
Liberal Democrat	172	17.3%	+1.3%	+0.8%
UKIP			-17.3%	-17.8%
Total votes	994		28%	29%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 4½% / 5% since 2015

Council now 33 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Resident

Three Rivers, Chorleywood South & Maple Cross - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2017 votes	2017 share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"
Liberal Democrat	1,428	63.7%	+4.6%	+19.9%	+18.7%	+17.8%
Conservative	597	26.6%	-2.0%	-19.2%	-4.1%	-3.2%
Labour	162	7.2%	+0.1%	-3.1%	-1.1%	-0.2%
UKIP	28	1.2%	-4.0%	from nowhere	-14.7%	-15.6%
Green	27	1.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	2,242		93%	52%	83%	88%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 3¼% since 2016, 19½% since 2015 and 11½% / 10½% since all out elections in 2014

Council now 20 Liberal Democrat, 16 Conservative, 3 Labour

[Arthur Figgis]

Went to my old local in Chorleywood today. Should've twigged from the surname, but the Labour candidate is the son of a mate. Incidentally, his dad is a Scouser, but (going by Facebook) manages to type in a stronger Scouse accent than he speaks. Not sure how that's possible.

[clyde1998]

A full breakdown of the Elgin City North (Moray) by-election:

Candidate Quota - 1,155	Stage 1 Total	Stage 2 Transfers	Stage 2 Total	Stage 3 Transfers	Stage 3 Total
McClean, Maria (Con)	923	+47	970	+91	1,061	Elected
Gowans, Patsy (SNP)	895	+9	904	+90	994
Taylor, Nick (Lab)	365	+24	389
Monaghan, Terry (Ind)	124
Non-Transferable			44		252

Rejected - 17
Turnout - 2,324 (24.8%)

[andrewteale]

Jul 15, 2017 1:02:51 GMT clyde1998 said:

A full breakdown of the Elgin City North (Moray) by-election:

Candidate Quota - 1,155	Stage 1 Total	Stage 2 Transfers	Stage 2 Total	Stage 3 Transfers	Stage 3 Total
McClean, Maria (Con)	923	+47	970	+91	1,061	Elected
Gowans, Patsy (SNP)	895	+9	904	+90	994
Taylor, Nick (Lab)	365	+24	389
Monaghan, Terry (Ind)	124
Non-Transferable			44		252

Rejected - 17
Turnout - 2,324 (24.8%)

It turns out Maria McLean is originally from Siberia.

[yellowperil]

Jul 15, 2017 17:28:37 GMT andrewteale said:

Jul 15, 2017 1:02:51 GMT clyde1998 said:

It turns out Maria McLean is originally from Siberia.

Not that McLean family, surely?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jul 14, 2017 9:21:38 GMT marksenior said:

Didcot South Lab 631 Con 528 LD 289
Didcot West Con 429 Lab 393 LD 172

also Didcot TC

Ladygrove ward Ind 736 LD 268 Con 211 Lab 124
Northbourne ward Lab 307/307 Con 193/192 LD 157/125
Orchard ward Lab 61 LD 37
All Saints ward Lab 392 Con 382 LD 163 Ind 58

The TC results are interesting, given that Didcot West is co-extensive with All Saints.

[CatholicLeft]

Jul 16, 2017 16:13:14 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jul 14, 2017 9:21:38 GMT marksenior said:

Didcot South Lab 631 Con 528 LD 289
Didcot West Con 429 Lab 393 LD 172

also Didcot TC

Ladygrove ward Ind 736 LD 268 Con 211 Lab 124
Northbourne ward Lab 307/307 Con 193/192 LD 157/125
Orchard ward Lab 61 LD 37
All Saints ward Lab 392 Con 382 LD 163 Ind 58

The TC results are interesting, given that Didcot West is co-extensive with All Saints.

Indeed, a seemingly clear case of the Independent in All Saints ward costing the Conservative the seat.

[yellowperil]

Jul 16, 2017 16:13:14 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jul 14, 2017 9:21:38 GMT marksenior said:

The TC results are interesting, given that Didcot West is co-extensive with All Saints.

Would this have happened , do you think, if this had not been district and parish elections on the same day? Would an independent have got the same votes standing in the district?
Is there an element of some local Tories having done their duty by their party in the district, having a punt in the independent when it's "only" the town council?