Kosovo: Parliamentary Election 2017

[Georg Ebner]

EarlyElections are going to be held on June 11th.

[Deleted]

May 12, 2017 5:51:26 GMT Georg Ebner said:

EarlyElections are going to be held on June 11th.

Isa Mustafa's government lost a vote of confidence on Wednesday. 78 of 120 MPs voted for the motion, only 34 backed the government. The ultranationalists in Vetevendosje, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (NISMA), and some MPs from the ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) voted against the government. President Hashim Thaci called snap elections after a meeting with representatives of most parties.

[Deleted]

The Albanian election is a week later, which should be interesting.  

[Deleted]

I wrote this overview of the parties for another forum when the Kosovo crisis escalated in late 2015.

"The roots of the conflict goes back to the liberation struggle of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK).

UÇK became a de facto ally of NATO under the 1999 war. It was funded mainly with criminal money and essentially identical to the Kosovar-Albanian mafia (controlling a significant part of the heroin trade in, especially, Sweden, Switzerland, Germany and Italy), so the organization was always a bit dubious as the founders of a new state.

UÇKs political wing transformed into the Partia Demokratike e Kosovës (Democratic Party of Kosovo - PDK), led by current Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Hashim “the Snake” Thaçi. He led the strongest faction within a deeply divided UÇK, and since he was willing to accept autonomy within Serbia - at a time when both the political leadership and other rebel commanders rejected anything short of full independence - he got the backing of the CIA, bumped off the heads of a handful of rival factions and took control of UÇK in 1999.

Thaçi has since been remarkably recillient as the de facto Kosovarian leader no mather who is formally in charge - mainly due to the overlap between his political leadership and control of organised crime (mainly drug dealing, arms dealing and human trafficking) and Western support as the “moderate” bulwark against hardline nationalists.

Since 2014 the PM of Kosova is former Pristina Mayor Isa Mustafa (heir to civil rights leader Dr. Ibrahim Rugova as leader of the moderate Democratic League of Kosovo) in an EU brokered marriage of convenience with his partys old enemies in the DPK (ie. Haradinaj and his cronies ).


The (radical nationalist) opposition:

Ramush Haradinaj, first deputy commander of the security forces, then founder of AAK (2000), and Prime Minister under Democratic League of Kosovo leader Dr. Ibrahim Rugovas presidency. Aquitted twice for war crimes in Haag and (of course) deeply criminal.

Fatmir Limaj, former KLA commander, DPK co-founder, twice indicted for war crimes and (of course) deeply criminal. In 2014 he broke away from DPK after a power struggle with Haradinaj and formed the Initiative for Kosova (NISMA) together with the parliamentary Speaker.

Vetëvendosje (Self-determination) is an ultranationalist and Socialist movement, which wants to renationalize all public companies “sold” to regime cronies and create a Greater Albania of Albania, Kosova and Western Macedonia. Led by Albin Kurti (40), who is a former student activist and aid to war time political leader of KLA Adem Demaçi (forced out by the military commanders because he declined to accept autonomy ).

tl;dr: You got the Godfather of the Kosovar Albanian mob in alliance with a moderate intellectual on one side (so far with Western carte blanche to ignore trivial stuff such as the Constitution and election results) versus two rival ex-commanders and mafia bosses, and a hardline ultranationalist movement (whose goals threaten the economic interests of the Kosovar Mafia and the territorial integrity of three countries). Needless to say, this could easily get very nasty."

[Deleted]

This background may also be of some interest even if it describes the situation nearly 1,5 years ago, because its essentially the same conflict.

Experts now say that the current crisis in Kosovo, where the government has been clamping down on the opposition after a couple of incidents with seven opposition MPs being arrested after trying to block the proceedings by setting off tear gas in the parliamentary chamber is going to be "solved" with violence.

It is a pretty complex mess, which is the result of both the US and lately EU (State Department has mostly withdrawn from the Kosovo issue in recent years) have consistently backed attempts to secure stability and resolve the status conflict (by getting Serbia to accept Kosovo as an independent state), while disregarding democracy and the rule of law, which have meant ever increasing levels of internal conflict (and total inability to try to do something about the rampant poverty).

The current crisis is due to three opposition parties: Vetevendosje (Self-Determination), AAK (Alliance for the Future of Kosovo) and NISMA (Initiative for Kosovo) having paralysed the work of parliament since mid-September, but it follows a long line of "forced deals" and compromises of the sort where both sides are forced to cooperate no matter who got the most votes or are legally right - all imposed by US/EU.

The opposition parties are demanding that the government scrap an EU-mediated agreement with Belgrade to set up an Association of Serbian Municipalities, which they say will give Kosovo Serbs too much power and make them a "state within the state".

Since this might blow up soon I thought it was worth making a thread. A civil war (even a low level insurgency), will obviously influence the stability on the Balkans and possibly also refugee routes (as it could spill over to neighboring areas).

No trust in the EU or US as "honest brokers" now. The UN should do something, but is as inefficient as usually. Everybody seems to agree that this has been "outsourced" to the EU. Both Russia and Turkey of course unacceptable as mediators to various parties, and hard to see this solved without outside mediation. From a Scandinavian POV it is interesting that Norway has been mentioned as a possible mediator. They have an embassy in Kosovo and have played an active role as a third party mediator in a number of conflicts, so a least their diplomacy has some experience in conflict resolution.

[Deleted]

There are three candidates for PM in Kosovo:

Ramush Haradinaj (48) (recently released from France were he was detained on Serbian war crime charges) from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) is supported by the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) under Kadri Veseli and Fatmir Limaj’s initiative for Kosovo (NISMA). All three are former leaders of Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK) and its the first time since the war ended that the entire ex-guerilla wing has run together. This is especially noteworthy because both Haradinaj and Limaj strongly opposed the ruling coalition which PDK was part of. He was briefly PM in 2004 in coalition with Ibrahim Rugovas LDK. Haradinaj quit after 100 days and surrendered to the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia to face war crime charges, and now been cleared of war crimes charges twice by the tribunal.

Avdullah Hoti (c. 45) is the outgoing Minister of Finance and key ally of outgoing PM Isa Mustafa and running as the candidate of his LDK, the "liberal" New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) under business magnate Behgjet Pacolli, and newcomers the Alternative (no relation to the Danish party...) led by Mimoza Kusari-Lila, who is Mayor of Gjakova. Its the first time since Mustafa took over the LDK leadership in 2010 that the party presents another PM candidate. Hoti was deputy mayor when Mustafa was mayor of Pristina.

The ultranationalists in Vetevendosje are running their former leader and founder Albin Kurti (42) running on a populist "anti-duopoly" and "change" message. They led the campaign against the agreement on border demarcation with Montenegro, which led to the fall of Mustafa's government in alliance with Haradianaj’s AAK and Limaj’s NISMA (the teargas throwing in parliament mentioned earlier this thread). He has an arrest warrant from the Pristina Basic Court hanging over his head after he failed to show up for the trial where he was accused of letting off teargas in parliament last year (this is the reason he isn't part leader at the moment). He is married to Rita Augestad Knudsen, who is a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). With his former allies teaming up with the PDK he doesn't have much of a chance, even if Vetevendosje have increased their popularity.

[Deleted]

Its today. 

LIVE: Kosovo Snap Elections 2017

[Deleted]

[Deleted]

Democracy in Action, DnV, a coalition of NGOs monitoring the elections, has published its preliminary results based on 30% of polling stations:

PAN coalition: 36.0
LAA coalition: 26.2
Vetevendosje: 24.7
Srpska Lista: 3.5

[Deleted]

With 70% of the polling stations counted (according to Democracy in Action)

PAN coalition 34.2
LAA (LDK-AKR-Alternativa) coalition 25.8
Vetevendosje 26.3
Srpska Lista (GISL) 4.2
Others 9.5

[Deleted]

Looks like Ramush Haradinaj from AAK is certain to become PM. Turnout was a mere 41.4% (even lower than in France..)

Central Election Commission preliminary results with 91% of the votes counted:

PAN coalition (PDK, AAK, NISMA and 13 micro parties) 34.6 (the ex-rebels or "warrior coalition")
Vetevendosje 26.7 (big victory - up from 13.9% last time)
LAA coalition (LDK, AKR, Alternativa) 25.8
Srpska Lista 5.9 (which should give them all ten Serbian seats, there were five other Serbian parties running)

[Deleted]

2483 of 2490 polling stations counted now.
rezultatet.kqz-ks.org/Results.aspx?RaceID=1&UnitID=1&IsPS=0&Turnout=0&LangID=2

[Deleted]

The Egyptian Liberal Party (Partia Liberale Egjiptiane) got 2,096 votes 0.3%. Its a party representing sedentary Albanian speaking gypsies (hence the name) in central and eastern Kosovo (many were blacksmiths on Ottoman estates in the olden days), who refuse to identify as Roma (many of them fought in the UÇK during the war, whereas the Romas "collaborated" with the Serbs and mostly had to flee to Serbia and Montenegro afterwards). They then either reinvented themselves as the so-called "Ashkali" minority, or called themselves "Egyptians" (if they thought that was bogus). There is one other Egyptian party, the New Democratic Initiative of Kosovo (Iniciativa e re Demokrarike e Kosovës - IDK), which got 0.21%. The Ashkali parties Partita Demokratike E Ashkanlive E Të Kosovës and Partita E Ashkalinjëve Per Integrim each got 0.31%. If all four parties had run together they would have been guaranteed a three of the ten non-Serbian minority seats, now they split their votes almost equally. Still, one of them should get in.

[Deleted]

We still haven't gotten the official result as the votes from three polling stations for reasons unbeknown to me haven't been included in the count. But its clear that it will be very difficult to form a government and President Hashim Thaci may well have to consider calling a new election. 

The big "war coalition" of 14 parties dominated by former UÇK fighters (PDK, AAK, NISMA et al) only has 39 of the 120 seats in parliament, but needs at least 41 to form a government (as the 20 minority seats can be bought for pork to their communities and/or bribes to their leaders). Both the ultranationalist in Vetevendosje and the LDK & allies coalition got 30 seats, while the soft Islamists in FJALA (the Word) got their leader (charismatic 38-year old surgeon Dr. Gëzim Kelmendi) elected. Since the ultras in Vetevendosje and the moderates in LDK & Co. can not work together the "war coalition" needs either a deal with LDK (unlikely) or the support of at least two defectors from LDK & Co. in order to govern (defections from Vetevendosje are highly unlikely as they have tough internal discipline and hate the establishment). 

[yellowperil]

Jun 14, 2017 13:44:11 GMT @odo said:

We still haven't gotten the official result as three votes from three polling stations for reasons unbeknown to me haven't been included in the count. But its clear that it will be very difficult to form a government and President Hashim Thaci may well have to consider calling a new election. 

The big "war coalition" of 14 parties dominated by former UÇK fighters (PDK, AAK, NISMA et al) only has 39 of the 120 seats in parliament, but needs at least 41 to form a government (as the 20 minority seats can be bought for pork to their communities and/or bribes to their leaders). Both the ultranationalist in Vetevendosje and the LDK & allies coalition got 30 seats, while the soft Islamists in FJALA (the Word) got their leader (charismatic 38-year old surgeon Dr. Gëzim Kelmendi) elected. Since the ultras in Vetevendosje and the moderates in LDK & Co. can not work together the "war coalition" needs either a deal with LDK (unlikely) or the support of at least two defectors from LDK & Co. in order to govern (defections from Vetevendosje are highly unlikely as they have tough internal discipline and hate the establishment). 

Perhaps they will turn up in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport.

[Deleted]

In a surprise move Vetevendosje boss Albin Kurti has stirred up things by inviting the LDK-New Kosovo Alliance-Alternative coalition to begin talks on forming a government. 

The common denominator for the two sides is a desire to break the hold of mafia like shadowy structures originating in the war era over Kosovo politics. While the others aren't clean the "war parties" clearly are in a league of their own. Many LDK politicians seem to prefer to stay in opposition - hoping to win a new election, but their partners are more accommodating. Several LDK politicians are putting pressure on their leadership not to talk to Kadri Veseli and PDK, saying they will defect if they do. 

[Deleted]

The LDK say they want their leader, acting PM Isa Mustafa, to be PM if they are to form a coalition with Vetevendosje. A demand Vetevendosje flatly refuse saying the people voted for them to head the government (they got 1.4% more votes than the LDK coalition). LDK further say they can work with AAK and NISMA from the PDK led coalition, but not with PDK itself , which would also be a bit hard since they have accused them of "capturing the state" and branded them as a criminal organization (which isn't far from the truth tbh).

[Deleted]

Two of the three "missing" polling stations are in Prizren (2nd largest city) in the south-west and one in Mitrovicë e Jugut in the north. Not sure what is going on.

[Deleted]

The results have been finalized. I haven't been able to find the distribution within the two coalitions (which is rather important for government formation), but the 100 regular seats are distributed thusly:

PAN coalition (PDK 22, AAK 11, NISMA 6) 33.7% 39 (–15)
Vetëvendosje! 200,138 27.5% 32 (+16)
LAA coalition (LDK-AKR-Alternativa) 25.5% 29 (–1)

The Islamists in Fjala got 1.1% and didn't get a seat in the end. The LAA coalition got one seat less than in the preliminary results and Vetëvendosje! two more.

Distribution of the 20 reserved minority seats (10 Serbs/4 "Gypsies"/3 Bosniaks/2 Turks/1 Gorani):

Serbs: 10 
Serb List 6.1% 9 (nc)
Independent Liberal Party 3,539 0.5% 1 (+1)
Progressive Democratic Party 0.2% 0 (–1)

Albanianised Gypsies (Ashkali/Balkan Egyptians): 3 (nc)
Democratic Ashkali Party of Kosovo 0.3% 1 (nc)
Egyptian Liberal Party 0.3% 1 (nc)
Ashkali Party for Integration 0.3% 1 (nc)

Roma: 1 (nc)
United Roma Party of Kosovo 0.1% 1 (+1)
Kosovar New Romani Party 0.1% 0 (–1)

Bosniaks: 3 
Vakat Coalition 0.9% 2 (nc)
New Democratic Party 0.5% 1 (nc)

Turks: 2 
Turkish Democratic Party of Kosovo 1.1% 2 (nc)

Gorani (non-Bosniak Slavic Muslims): 1 
United Gorani Party 0.3% 1 (new)
Coalition for Gora 0.1% 0 (–1)

[Deleted]

AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj, who is the PAN's PM candidate, claims he has support from all the minority representatives and "more than two" Albanian MPs outside PAN and will form a government next week. Meaning part of the LAA coalition has defected, but its unclear whether this is true. The minorities are obviously against the ultranationalists in Vetëvendosje! and backing PAN is their only alternative. Since the leaders of both Vetëvendosje and LDK insist on heading a Vetëvendosje/LAA coalition the attempt of forming an anti-PAN coalition has stalled.