Kosovo: Parliamentary Election 2017

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Seems nothing much is happening over the summer (though likely lots of wheeling and dealing behind the scenes). The internal distribution in the PAN bloc is PDK 22, AAK 11, NISMA 6 and nothing to the micro parties, so PDK is in an unusually weak position. In the LAA coalition its LDK 23, AKR 4 and Alternativa 2.

Worth noticing that the entire PAN decline was due to PDK.

PDK 22 (-15)
AAK 11 (nc)
NISMA 6 (nc)

In LAA its:

LDK 23 (-7)
AKR 4 (+4)
Alternativa 2 (new)

So LDK was hit badly as well and Mr. Mabetex made a comeback after his AKR lost all their eight seats last time.

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Jul 1, 2017 12:28:52 GMT @odo said:

AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj, who is the PAN's PM candidate, claims he has support from all the minority representatives and "more than two" Albanian MPs outside PAN and will form a government next week. Meaning part of the LAA coalition has defected, but its unclear whether this is true. The minorities are obviously against the ultranationalists in Vetëvendosje! and backing PAN is their only alternative. Since the leaders of both Vetëvendosje and LDK insist on heading a Vetëvendosje/LAA coalition the attempt of forming an anti-PAN coalition has stalled.

This would most likely be AKR as it unlike Alternativa fits the "more than two" part and is a personalist party with few principles, but Haradinaj seemingly hasn't closed the deal yet. 

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The LAA coalition has just refused to negotiate with Haradinaj unless he leaves the alliance with the PDK. Haradinaj has started negotiations with the non-Serb ethnic minorities (the easiest part of his path to become PM).

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The Serb List under Igor Simic haven't decided who they will back for PM of Kosovo. PANs candidate AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj thought he had the minority representatives lined up behind him, but his activities as a UÇK commander during the war is still a problem. Haradinaj was twice charged with war crimes by the ICTY (torture, murder, and rape of civilians etc.). He was acquitted both in 2008 (after massive witness intimidation..), and in 2012 following a seemingly fair trial, but many Serbs and Roma are still reluctant to back him, even if the alternative is the ultranationalist Albin Kurti.

The Serbs seem to be internally divided, but Momcilo Trajkovic from the influential Serbian National Forum prefers a coalition with Vetëvendosje, saying that its leader Albin Kurti has "clean hands" (unlike Haradinaj) and working with him might prove more beneficial for the Serbs. Currently Vetëvendosje are going for a 100% Albanian alliance with AAK, LDK and Alternativa, thus trying to split both the major alliances and getting LKR to replace their alliance with AKR and Mr. Mabetex with AAK and Haradinaj. This seems a bit far fetched as it would include both of the other parties gunning for the PM post. They say they will only work with Serbs that aren't "the long arm of Belgrade" (which should exclude the Serb List..).

The Serbs have a strong bargaining position. So-called "laws of special importance" require support from both 2/3 of all MPs and 2/3 of the 20 ethnic minority MPs in order to pass, so the nine Serb List MPs can block them, this includes the much wanted transformation of Kosovo's paramilitary Security Force into a regular army. In addition the government is obliged to include minority representatives.

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The Kosovo parliament still hasn't been constituted and no Speaker or presidium elected. The reason is that it was part of the PDK/AKK deal that PDK chairman Kadri Veseli should become Speaker while Ramush Haradinaj from AKK would become PM. PDK doesn't want parliament constituted before they can be sure their coalition gets both the Speakers office and a mandate to form the government despite their alliance only having 39 seats. PDK has de facto controlled Kosovo since its independence in 2008, most of the civil servants have been recruited through their networks and the Constitutional Court is dominated by their appointees. They feel entitled to rule the country, but this time they lack the seats (though they did that last time as well). PDK insists on holding onto power and has decided to boycott the constitutive session of parliament until it finds a way to do so.

The situation with a hung parliament isn't that different from the aftermath of the 2014 elections. Back then all the other parties had agreed on a coalition leaving PDK in opposition. PDK was the biggest party and appealed to the Constitutional Court for "interpretation". The Court - unsurprisingly - ruled that the "winner" of the election had the exclusive right to nominate the Speaker and should be offered a mandate to form the government (though, notably, the two international members of the bench ruled against this). After six months of deadlock the LDK caved and agreed to break the multiparty alliance and form a coalition with its arch-rival PDK. Otherwise the 2015 budget couldn't have been approved. This change of heart happened after massive pressure from the US and EU (especially France and Germany) to abandon the coalition with the other parties.

When it comes to Kosovo the West has been obsessed with "stability", which basically equals continued PDK hegemony, and deference to formal procedures that matter little in Kosovo. But given the various crises it unleashed to strong-arm LDK into a coalition both the EU and US will hopefully refrain from interferring this time, where, once again, most parties do not want to work with the PDK, which clearly was the big loser of the election.

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On 9 September Kosovo's parliament approved AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj's new government with a 61 majority (supported by all ethnic minority votes + four from Behgjet Pacolli's New Kosovo Alliance, which ditched their alliance with LDK after Pachouli got some lucrative business deals).

PDK leader Kadri Veseli was voted Speaker by a 61-52 majority.

AAK gets four ministries (incl. PM), while PDK will have a Deputy Prime Minister plus six other ministries. Fatmir Limaj's NISMA will gets a second Deputy Prime Minister post + three other ministries.

Srpska Lista gets three ministries while the other minority communities get another two.

The new government will have a grand total of 21 ministers (I think the 21nd is a technocrat) and around 50 deputy ministers, making it the bulkiest in Kosovo's history. Experts say 13 ministers is enough to run the administration.

Haradinaj has said his government will "take a fresh look" at the controversial (Western supported) border agreement with Montenegro, which unleashed the protests against the previous government.

Serbian nationalists are up in arms about Srpska Lista supporting Haradinaj, and the warrant that Serbia has issued for his arrest on war crimes charges will remain in force.