Prediction Competition for May 2017

[middleenglander]

There are just 4 by-elections during the latter part of May:
* 2 on 11th May
* 1 on 18th
* 1 on 25th

2 of the contests are for District Councils last contested in 2015
1 in a Unitary Council with annual elections, last in 2016
1 for a London Borough last contested in 2014

Conservatives are defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Labour defend 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat following a death

Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP each have 4 candidates, Greens have 2 and Independents 1
- a total of 19 candidates for the 4 seats,

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[lancastrian]

Kings Lynn: Lab 37 Con 36 LD 20 UKIP 7
South Derbyshire: Con 46 Lab 40 UKIP 8 LD 6

[marksenior]

Kings Lynn Lab 41 Con 38 LD 13 UKIP 8
S Derbys Con 45 Lab 35 LD 12 UKIP 8

[greenhert]

King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, Fairstead: Conservative 42, Labour 39, Liberal Democrat 15, UKIP 4.
South Derbyshire DC, Woodville: Conservative 48, Labour 35, Liberal Democrats 12, UKIP 5.

[yellowperil]

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead: Con 44, Lab 39, UKIP 10, LD 7
South Derbyshire, Woodville: Con 50, Lab 40, UKIP 6, LD 4

[Robert Waller]

King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, Fairstead: Conservative 40, Labour 34, Liberal Democrat 18, UKIP 8.
South Derbyshire DC, Woodville: Conservative 45, Labour 40, Liberal Democrats 6, UKIP 9.

[brianj]

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead: Con 42, LibDem 26, Lab 25, UKIP 7.
South Derbyshire, Woodville: Lab 47, Con 37, LibDem 13, UKIP 3.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

KING'S LYNN AND WEST NORFOLK Fairstead: C 43, Lab 38, UKIP 11, L Dem 8
SOUTH DERBYSHIRE Woodville: C 46, Lab 39, UKIP 9, L Dem 6

[Ruggerman]

Kings Lynn and West Norfolk, Fairstead: Con; 44, Lab; 29, LD; 19, UKIP; 8
South Derbyshire, Woodville; Con; 46, Lab; 39, UKIP; 10, LD; 5

[hempie]

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead: Con 45, Lab 37, LD 10, UKIP 8
South Derbyshire, Woodville: Con 47, Lab 37, LD 10, UKIP 6

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week with greenrobinhood replacing greenhert but nothing from Carlton43.

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Fairstead: 8 Conservative gain from Labour, majority from 2.1% (Pete Whitehead over Labour) to 16% (brianj over Liberal Democrat), with Lancastrian & Mark Senior Labour hold
South Derbyshire, Woodville: 9 Conservative hold, majority over Labour from 5% (Robert Waller) to 13% (greenrobinhood) with brianj Labour gain


Pete Whitehead's predictions are:
Fairstead: Con 39.2, Lab 37.1, LD 14.4, UKIP 9.3
Woodville: Con 44.9, Lab 38.3, UKIP 11.4, LD 5.4

[middleenglander]

Week 1 of competition

Authority	Kings Lynn  & West Norfolk	South      Derbyshire	Enfield	Southend	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Fairstead	Woodville	Enfield Lock	Shoeburyness	faults	position
Brianj	47.6+10	30.5+10			98.1	10th
David Boothroyd	20.5+10	1.1			31.6	3rd
greenrobinhood	25.6+10	14.9			50.5	8th
hempie	24.5+10	8.9			43.4	7th
Lancastrian	23.6	2.9			26.5	2nd
Mark Senior	13.6	11.6			25.2	1st
Pete Whitehead	18.8+10	5.0			33.8	4th
Robert Waller	27.6+10	3.1			40.7	5th
Ruggerman	37.6+10	3.1			50.7	9th
Yellow Peril	22.5+10	10.2			42.7	6th
Total	261.9+80	91.3+10			443.2

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There is one by-election next Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to Mark for a very solid all round showing, and to David for getting South Derbyshire almost spot on. I'm still learning!

[carlton43]

I apologise for my absence. I entirely forgot. So much going on. I shall duck out now as too great a penalty deficit. Going to Italy next month and not back until September, so may duck out until the Autumn.

[yellowperil]

May 12, 2017 16:31:36 GMT carlton43 said:

I apologise for my absence. I entirely forgot. So much going on. I shall duck out now as too great a penalty deficit. Going to Italy next month and not back until September, so may duck out until the Autumn.

Enjoy Italy - trust that is before the 8th?

[carlton43]

May 12, 2017 18:18:01 GMT yellowperil said:

May 12, 2017 16:31:36 GMT carlton43 said:

I apologise for my absence. I entirely forgot. So much going on. I shall duck out now as too great a penalty deficit. Going to Italy next month and not back until September, so may duck out until the Autumn.

Enjoy Italy - trust that is before the 8th?

Thank you YP.

Here for GE. Yorkshire stop off. Suffolk for Britten at The Maltings. Harwich. Belgium stop. France stop. Switzerland stop. Italy.

It's a hard life.

[yellowperil]

You obviously enjoy being in the EU

[carlton43]

May 13, 2017 8:12:08 GMT yellowperil said:

You obviously enjoy being in the EU

Provocative chap.

I like where I am. I am virtually never where I don't want to be even briefly.

When I drive down the upper Tiber Valley towards our destination my heart lifts and I adopt a completely different mode of life.

When I drive down Glen Docherty looking towards Loch Maree on return to Scottish home my heart lifts and I adopt a completely different mode of life.

Our family have had an exposure to France and Italy for at least 4-generations largely without the benefit of a certain poxy intrusive institution and indeed the need for a passport or to even carry local currency. 150-years ago life for the British on the Continent was much simpler. 

[lancastrian]

Enfield: Lab 60 Con 23 LD 9 UKIP 5 Green 3

[brianj]

Enfield Lock, Enfield: Lab 51, Con 28, LibDem 9, Green 7, UKIP 5.